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The New Mexico Lobos take on the Santa Clara Broncos in Santa Clara, CA. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
New Mexico is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -126. The total is set at 166.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. Santa Clara prediction and college basketball picks for November 14, 2026.
New Mexico vs Santa Clara Prediction
Pick: Under 166.5
My New Mexico vs Santa Clara best bet is on the Under. Be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page and download the Action Network app for the latest picks and analysis.
New Mexico vs Santa Clara Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 166.5 -110o / -110u | -126 |
| Santa Clara Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 166.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
- New Mexico vs Santa Clara spread: – 1.5 (-110), +1.5 (-110)
- New Mexico vs Santa Clara over/under: 166.5 (-110o / -110u)
- New Mexico vs Santa Clara moneyline: New Mexico -126, Santa Clara +105
New Mexico vs Santa Clara College Basketball Preview
New Mexico Basketball
New Mexico has been explosive, but the shape of those wins is worth a closer look. The Lobos beat Utah Tech 100-60, Northern Arizona 94-65 and Little Rock 94-69, all at the Pit, and they have done it with defense and ball security as much as with Hall's scoring.
Opponents are shooting 38.9% from the field and 27.0% from three against them, New Mexico is forcing nearly 16 turnovers a game while committing about seven, and the Lobos are out-rebounding opponents 39.0 to 31.3. They are creating 12.3 offensive rebounds a game, and the glass is a team effort, with Benjamin Schuch at 6.3 rebounds a game, Federico Grani at 5.3 and Hall himself at 5.0. That balance matters on the road, because a team that gets rebounds from five spots does not have to rely on one big to control possessions.
The other thing the numbers show is how those totals have landed. New Mexico's three games finished with 160, 159, and 163 combined points, all below this number, even with a team that is scoring 96 a game and a player who just went for 39. A lot of that is because the opponents are being held to 64.7 points a game.
Now the Lobos make their first road trip of the season, to a building they have never played in, with a rotation that includes seven players who had never appeared in a Division I game before this season and is still taking shape. Rytis Petraitis made his debut against Little Rock after an ankle sprain, which gives Eric Olen one more option in the rotation.
Santa Clara Basketball
Santa Clara is a deeper team than its record might suggest. The Broncos went 26-9 last season, earned their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1996, and lost to Kentucky 89-84 in overtime, and they come back as the WCC preseason favorite with preseason All-WCC picks Jake Ensminger and Sash Gavalyugov.
They lost five of their top six scorers, so the team leans on depth. Kansas State transfer David Castillo, Chris Tadjo and Brad Longcor III all contributed in the 76-71 comeback at North Texas on Wednesday, and Thierry Darlan had 16 points and nine rebounds off the bench in a game where the Broncos grabbed 41 rebounds, 16 of them offensive, and held North Texas without a field goal for the final eight minutes.
That North Texas game is the best look at how Santa Clara plays away from the Leavey Center. It finished with 147 combined points, nearly 20 below this total, and Santa Clara won it by making stops down the stretch rather than by outrunning anyone. The Broncos have size to go with it, including 6-foot-11 transfer Sidi Gueye from Arizona, freshman Alex Ensor and 6-foot-10 Francis Chukwudebelu, which gives the Broncos real length for a team that has leaned on threes.
New Mexico vs Santa Clara Pick, Betting Analysis
Rebound Unders is built for this spot:
The system looks for non-conference games with an elevated total where the road team is a strong rebounding team, and the home side is not a big underdog, and this game checks each box. New Mexico is the visitor, and it is out-rebounding opponents by 7.7 a game while grabbing a dozen offensive boards. The total sits at 166.5, and Santa Clara is a one-and-a-half-point home underdog in what the market treats as a pick'em.
A road team that rebounds well extends its own possessions and limits the other side's second chances, which reduces transition chances and trims the number of trips for both teams. Santa Clara's defensive rebounding adds to that, because the Broncos limit the Lobos' second-chance opportunities and force the game into the half-court, which is where New Mexico's 96-point scoring average from three home blowouts is hardest to maintain.
The market numbers say the same thing in a different way. The total opened at 165.5 and has moved to 166.5, while the side has flipped from Santa Clara -2.5 to New Mexico -1.5, and the moneyline has moved from Santa Clara -142 to New Mexico -112 and Santa Clara +112.
That fits a market reacting to Hall's 39-point night and the gaudy scoring averages, but the game logs say something more modest. New Mexico's three games went 160, 159, and 163, and Santa Clara's only road game finished at 147.
A 166.5 total asks for more scoring than any of New Mexico's three games or Santa Clara's win at North Texas has produced.
Pick: Under 166.5
