College Basketball Odds, Pick for UNC vs Oklahoma

Two of the nation's top-15 teams square off on Wednesday as No. 11 North Carolina and No. 7 Oklahoma meet at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte as part of the Jumpman Invitational.

Though it's away from their home stadium, the crowd will be packed and pro-Tar Heel. UNC looks to end its two-game skid with a win against undefeated Oklahoma, which has been one of the many surprises this season. The Sooners have five wins against KenPom top-55 teams.

Here's college basketball odds and a pick for UNC vs. Oklahoma.

If you want to talk about difficult schedules in non-conference play, look no further than North Carolina. In the Heels' last six games, four have fallen in Quadrant I.

UNC enters on a two-game losing streak, one against the defending champion Connecticut Huskies and the other was a down-to-the-wire bout with Kentucky. The Heels have been battle-tested, which fairs well against top competition.

While RJ Davis and Armando Bacot returned for senior seasons, this is a new-look Tar Heels squad that loves to run-and-gun. They’re 34th in tempo and 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

Davis has been incredible, taking over the bulk of the offensive duties with Caleb Love gone. He’s bumped up his scoring by over five points per game (21.6) and shoots nearly 31% of all shots on the floor.

We all know about the 6-foot-11 Bacot. He’s top-10 in defensive rebounding, a fierce rim protector and draws nearly six fouls per 40 minutes. He's second on the team in points (15.2) and first in rebounding (11.3).

This is a team that doesn’t turn the ball over and draws fouls at a top-20 rate thanks to Davis and Bacot. The defensive focus on the duo of Davis and Bacot has opened the door for the transfers to step in and thrive alongside them.

Enter Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame). Ingram has lived up to expectations (14.6 PPG, 43.2% from 3) while Ryan also averages double figures. It’s only a matter of time before Ryan finds his 3-point stroke, as he’s shooting under 30% this season. The last three years, he never finished below 34.4%.

Defensively, the Tar Heels have struggled. They’ve allowed 70+ points in each of their last six games and 68+ in all but one. They don’t force many turnovers — they're 301st in average possession length — and rank around 150th in 2-point and 3-point defense.

ShotQuality shows that North Carolina often forces opponents into isolation (12%, sixth-highest rate) and rarely will they attack the rim and face Bacot.

Rather the Heels settle in the mid-range or the perimeter. That will likely be the story of Wednesday night, when they draw a team like Oklahoma that looks to attack the rim every chance it gets.

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One of the big surprises of the season has been Oklahoma’s undefeated start. The Sooners have won 10 straight with four impressive resume-building wins against Iowa, USC, Providence and Arkansas.

Defense is the key for this Sooners squad. They rank eighth in Adjusted Efficiency and have the fourth-best perimeter defense in the league. Opponents are shooting just 25.6% from 3, a number that's likely unsustainable. ShotQuality ranks them 33rd in Catch-and-Shoot 3s, but down at 137th in Off the Dribble 3s.

Oklahoma is also 25th in 2-point defense, as well, and 53rd in turnover rate. This is an aggressive and athletic bunch that's been able to overwhelm smaller teams. There hasn’t been a chink in the defensive armor of Porter Moser’s bunch.

The offense has been great, though there have been more holes The Sooners rank 34th in Adjusted Efficiency and are best inside the arc (seventh-best 2-point offense). They attack the rim at a near-50% rate.

Otega Oweh has taken a huge sophomore-year leap and is the team’s leading scorer (14.9 PPG). He's inside the top 10 in both eFG% and true shooting%. He's also top-20 in steal rate and is a driving force on defense.

His backcourt mate — Javian McCollum (Siena transfer) — is not too far behind him, averaging 14.3 points per game. McCollum is the primary ball handler and takes over 26% of shots while on the floor. McCollum hasn't struggled in his transition from low mid-major to Power Five competition.

McCollum and Le’Tre Darthard have provided a steady hand from the perimeter for Oklahoma, which is outside the top 100 in 3-point%.

This is a well-balanced team that loves to push transition and use its athleticism to attack the rim.

I had this spot circled a couple of weeks ago and was hoping we'd grab North Carolina as small favorites. That's exactly what we have here, as the Tar Heels are just two-point favorites in a semi-home game against the undefeated Sooners.

UNC's defense is equipped to slow down this Oklahoma offense. The Sooners love to attack the rim at a high rate, but Bacot is a huge deterrent. Only 30% of opponent possessions end at the rim against North Carolina, per ShotQuality.

From top to bottom, I believe the Tar Heels hold the advantage. They have the better scorers and size around the rim to give OU problems.

Tack on the fact that they boast a dynamic offense that can light it up from the perimeter, and we could see UNC blow open the doors and build too big of a lead for Oklahoma to come back from.

Back North Carolina to take down the undefeated Sooners. This is the perfect spot in front of a pro-UNC crowd.

Pick: North Carolina -2 (Play to -3.5)

Check out some of the North Carolina sportsbooks expected to launch in 2024: FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook, bet365, BetMGM, and Fanatics Sportsbook.