NCAAB Odds, Pick for North Dakota State vs Creighton

This game between the North Dakota State Bison and the Creighton Blue Jays is one that doesn't contain much roster turnover from a season ago.

The Blue Jays are a top-15 KenPom team for a reason. They run at an average pace and they are incredibly balanced, ranking among the top 20 in both Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Meanwhile, NDSU will take a step back. The Bison played at a similar pace to Creighton last season, but defense has never been their strong suit.

With that being the case, let's look at the North Dakota State vs. Creighton odds and make a pick.

The bulk of North Dakota State's lineup is the same. Damari Wheeler-Thomas runs the point, while Tajavis Miller and Boden Skunberg are on the wings. Head coach Dave Richman also brought in Jeremiah Burke (junior college), Darik Dissette (freshman) and Eli Bradley (freshman). Noah Feddersen redshirted last year and will see ample playing time this season. Jacari White, Andrew Morgan and Joshua Streit will also play important roles.

NDSU ranks 266th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bison rank 253rd in Adjusted Tempo, but have played just two games. Since they are bringing back mostly the same lineup, defense will be a glaring issue. They ranked 363rd in defensive turnover rate a season ago and allowed teams to shoot 34.2% from deep and 50.6% from inside the arc.

Adding to that, NDSU ranked 340th in Open 3 Rate and 337th in Shot Making. Sure, Creighton lost some key players, but the Blue Jays have more than enough to exploit this porous defense.

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Creighton is a great all-around team. It added Steven Ashworth (Utah State), Isaac Traudt (Virginia), Johnathan Lawson (Memphis), Josiah Dotzler (freshman), Sterling Knox (freshman) and Brock Vice (freshman). Trey Alexander, Ashworth, Baylor Scheierman, Mason Miller and Ryan Kalkbrenner round out the starting lineup, but everyone else should also get some minutes.

Since the Bison have such a brutal defense, look for the Blue Jays to eat them alive. Creighton shot 47.4% from deep last season and 69% from inside the arc. It also launched the eighth-highest 3-point attempt rate and since the Blue Jays have five guys on the roster shooting over 36% from deep, they should rack up points quickly from outside.

Adding to that, Kalkbrenner will grab as many offensive boards as he wants. As a result, Creighton should get numerous second-chance points.

Creighton will win this game in a landslide and should score at will against a defense this bad. NDSU isn't necessarily an offensive juggernaut, but Creighton has a few holes that the Bison can exploit. Finally, neither team runs at a horribly slow rate, so this game should hit the total down the stretch. Take the over in this one and play to 148.5.

Pick: Over 146.5 (Play to 148.5)

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