Ohio State vs West Virginia Odds, Pick for Saturday

The Ohio State Buckeyes have been among the Big Ten's most impressive teams in the early going.

Chris Holtmann has his crew back on track after an underwhelming 2022-2023 season. They have two losses, one against Texas A&M in game two of the season and one at Penn State on Dec. 9. Aside from that, they have KenPom top-100 wins over UCLA, Minnesota, and Alabama.

Their next opponent will be the West Virginia Mountaineers.

West Virginia looks rough, entering this matchup at 5-7, with its only quality win against Missouri State.

There's not much value on the spread in this game, but given each team's slow pace and the inconsistent Mountaineer offense, the Under should be in play.

OSU ranks 271st nationally in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, averaging 18.3 seconds per possession offensively and 17.1 seconds per possession defensively.

The Buckeyes rank 19th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 44th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

They're shooting 37.9% from beyond the arc but under 52% from two-point range, but they only rank 204th in 3-point attempt rate. They rank 28th in Open 3 Rate and ninth in at-the-rim points per possession, but they haven't taken the most efficient shots.

That said, West Virginia ranks 254th nationally in Open 3 rate allowed. The Mountaineers rank 32nd in at-the-rim PPP allowed and can stop post-ups, ranking 46th in post-up PPP allowed. Ohio State posts up at the nation's 34th-highest rate.

Jesse Edwards' injury is a hit to the Mountaineers, which could impact their interior presence.

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West Virginia boasts a rock-solid interior defense, and the Mountaineers don't foul much, ranking fourth nationally in free-throw rate allowed.

Ohio State relies heavily on foul shots, ranking 82nd in free-throw rate and scoring 21% of its points from the charity stripe. Unfortunately, they won't be able to live at the line on Saturday.

West Virginia is the weaker offensive team in this game, shooting only 31% from deep and 47% from inside the arc, good for a 46.5 eFG%. Ohio State is not immune to fouling, ranking 106th in free-throw rate allowed, while the Mountaineers rank 109th in free-throw rate.

Unfortunately, the 'Eers are inconsistent everywhere else. They rank 133rd nationally in Open 3 rate, 231st in Rim-and-3 rate and 186th at-the-rim PPP.

The Buckeyes rank fourth in Rim-and-3 rate allowed. They're not the strongest defensive team, but West Virginia's offense isn't good, so they should generate some stops.

I'm concerned about West Virginia's struggles on the glass. The Mountaineers rank 215th nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 150th in defensive rebounding rate. Meanwhile, Ohio State ranks 22nd on offense and 133rd on defense, so look for the Bucks to get some put-back opportunities.

The Mountaineers still play slow, ranking 220th in tempo and averaging 18.4 seconds per possession.

Ultimately, both squads play slow, so possessions should be limited.

West Virginia's offense is inconsistent at best, and Ohio State won't score much from the interior or free-throw line.

Bruce Thornton and Felix Okpara might miss the game due to injury, so keep an eye on that if you're trying to bet Ohio State.

Regardless, the Under can hit either way, and I'll play that down to 140.

Pick: Under 141.5 (Play to 140)

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