NCAAB Odds, Pick for Ole Miss vs Texas A&M

Four teams are tied for seventh place in the SEC standings at 3-3 heading into Saturday’s action. Two of them, the Ole Miss Rebels and Texas A&M Aggies, will meet up at Reed Arena in College Station, Texas, looking to bust above the .500 mark in league play.

The Rebels jumped out to a remarkable 13-0 start in Chris Beard’s first season, but Ole Miss has split its last six games, all against conference foes. The Aggies, meanwhile, own miserable offensive numbers in SEC play but have found a way to win three of four since an 0-2 start in the league.

Ole Miss didn’t see much success in the Kermit Davis era, reaching the NCAA Tournament only once, which came in his first season in 2019. The last two seasons, the Rebels failed to win more than 13 games in a season. As a result, the program pursued Beard, who took Texas Tech to the NCAA championship game in 2019.

Ole Miss was blasted in the SEC opener at Tennessee, while also losing at LSU and Auburn. Its three conference wins have all come at home, beating Florida, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. The 103-85 victory over the Gators was by far the best offensive performance for the Rebels, who shot an incredible 31-of-46 on 2-point attempts.

Vanderbilt and Arkansas are a combined 1-10 in SEC play, as Ole Miss easily dominated both these teams by double-digits. The Rebels ripped up the Razorbacks, 77-51, as 8.5-point favorites Wednesday, highlighted by a combined 39 points from Matthew Murrell and Jaylen Murray.

Ole Miss owns a 2-3 road record this season, with the two wins coming by a combined three points at UCF and Temple. Since the start of last season, the Rebels are just 2-10 on the road in SEC play.

Despite mediocre shooting numbers, the Rebels have a glaring defensive deficiency when it comes to stopping the 3. The Rebels are allowing opponents to shoot 34.1% from beyond the arc, which is 11th in league play. In the three SEC road losses, Ole Miss is yielding 42% shooting from downtown.

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Texas A&M owns several solid nonconference wins by beating Ohio State, SMU and Iowa State, while losing to the likes of FAU, Virginia and Houston. The SEC schedule started with a 15-point home loss to LSU as 11.5-point favorites. The Tigers limited the Aggies to 5-of-28 shooting from 3-point range while Texas A&M put up only 21 points in the second half.

Texas A&M struggled again offensively in a 66-55 loss at Auburn, hitting just three shots from long distance. Leading scorer Wade Taylor IV knocked down only 3-of-20 attempts from downtown in the LSU and Auburn losses, but rebounded nicely in Texas A&M’s next game.

Buzz Williams’ team avoided an 0-3 start in SEC play by beating Kentucky as 3-point home favorites in overtime. Taylor scored 31 points in the win, although his shooting breakdown was a bit perplexing. He hit 6-of-13 attempts from 3-point land, along with 11 free throws, but converted 1-of-11 shots on 2-point tries.

The Aggies dug themselves a 20-point hole at struggling Arkansas before rallying to cut the deficit to one in the final seconds. Texas A&M couldn’t score on its final possession in a 78-77 loss, while Arkansas finally broke through in the SEC win column.

Last season, the Aggies defeated the Rebels in their lone matchup in Oxford, 69-61, as 5-point favorites. Texas A&M won despite shooting 38% from the floor, while Murrell was the only Rebel in double figures with 26 points.

Texas A&M has failed to cover in two opportunities as a double-digit home favorite against LSU and Missouri. However, in a more reasonable point spread range, the Aggies were able to beat Kentucky and pick up the cover.

Ole Miss has been torched defensively on the road in SEC play, and although Texas A&M has struggled to score at times in conference action, this team has been tested more this season than the Rebels.

Let's lay the points with Texas A&M at home to defeat Ole Miss.

Pick: Texas A&M -5.5 (Play to -6.5)