NCAAB Odds, Pick for San Diego State vs Gonzaga

Before the Gonzaga Bulldogs sneak away to play against lesser opponents in the West Coast Conference, non-conference play offers one more test. The Zags will welcome last season's NCAA tournament runner-up to Spokane for a date between two of the best teams out West.

The story of San Diego State's season — and frankly one of the best stories in college basketball so far this season — starts and ends with Jaedon LeDee. The fifth-year big man was expected to bring some veteran experience, yet based on his previous production, he wasn't supposed to step into a starring role.

In his prior four years, across time spent at Ohio State, TCU and San Diego State, LeDee averaged 5.1 points and 3.6 rebounds per game.

This season, he's been a monster, posting 21.6 points and 9.4 rebounds. His 34-point, 17-rebound game against Washington, in 41 minutes played, was one of the best performances by any player this season.

This leap seemingly came from nowhere. This isn't an unheard of player on an unknown team; the Aztecs played in the national title game last season. LeDee didn't eclipse 12 points in any of San Diego State's six NCAA tournament games last year. He hasn't scored under 13 points in a game yet this season.

Some of it is opportunity. He's up to 32 minutes per game from his 18.1 minutes last season.

On the court, however, his opportunities haven't changed much. His usage rate is only a tick higher than last season, but he's really developed a more complete game.

In his 118 games before this season, he never hit a 3 on 17 attempts. This year, he's 8-of-20 from downtown, which has opened up a lot more of his moves in the post or as a screener.

LeDee was a reserve last season because starting center Nathan Mensah anchored a top-five defense in the nation. LeDee has slid into the starting lineup, but San Diego State is still elite defensively.

The perimeter players in Brian Dutcher's lineup have excelled at forcing tough shots.

The Drew Timme era felt like decades, but in reality, Gonzaga only had the services of the flashy big man for three NCAA tournaments. In those three tournaments, the Zags played in 13 games, each year continuing to add onto the nation's longest streak of Sweet 16 appearances, which dates back to 2014.

Life without Timme would always feel like a step down, and that became even more of the case when Gonzaga needed to replace not just Timme, but Julian Strawther, Rasir Bolton, Hunter Sallis and Malachi Smith from last season's team.

About halfway through this season, Mark Few has done a pretty good job of keeping the Bulldogs nationally relevant. He scored two major prizes in the transfer portal in Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike, who have made for a perfect pick-and-roll pairing on the court.

The real difference maker for the Zags, however, could be Braden Huff. The redshirt freshman big man could one day fill the Timme-sized hole in the Gonzaga program.

It seems, for now, that Few isn't quite ready to trust his young center yet. Huff has four performances with 17 or more points, all of which came against cupcake competition. He's only played 20 minutes in three of Gonzaga's 12 games, with his playing time against top opponents especially low.

Huff played just five scoreless minutes in a loss to Washington and 13 minutes against UConn, in which he managed just one point. Huff did see time against Purdue, thanks to Zach Edey sinking Gonzaga's frontline into foul trouble. Huff struggled against the reigning National Player of the Year.

In order for this Gonzaga team to really take flight later in the season, you'd expect to see Huff's minutes and production expand. His inside-outside versatility creates tons of opportunities for his teammates to attack defenses.

We should see plenty of Huff in West Coast Conference play, though it would be prudent for Few to give him more of a look in a game like this.

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This line opened at Gonzaga -5.5 and quickly jumped to -6.5. That makes it a little bit of a trickier pick, considering the smart bet is to trust the Zags to cover at home in the Kennel.

Few and company have been stellar in their home building in recent memory. Since 2011, the Zags are 104-75-4 (.581) ATS as a home favorite. Their record ATS as a home team in that span is exactly the same, considering they've been favored in every single home game for more than a decade.

I feel good enough trusting the Zags for that reason, but I think there's some more substance here. Gonzaga has a group of players to throw at LeDee, likely led by Anton Watson. He, Ben Gregg, Ike and Huff all have the length to make his night difficult.

On top of that, the Aztecs are due for some defensive shooting regression. Their last nine opponents have combined to hit just 28.6% from long range and, forgive the small sample size, their last opponent (Stanford) was 3-of-20 from deep.

I'd especially have an eye on Nembhard, who was at least an average shooter at Creighton but has started just 6-of-34 from outside as a Zag.

A slower night from LeDee and a few extra Zag 3s lean me towards a Bulldog cover.

Pick: Gonzaga -6.5

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