NCAAB Odds, Pick for San Jose State vs San Diego State

Tuesday night’s Mountain West matchup between the San Jose State Spartans (9-19, 2-13 MW) and San Diego State Aztecs (21-7, 10-5 MW) look like it'll be a blowout, but which team will cover the spread?

The Aztecs, at home, enter as heavy favorites, but the Spartans shouldn't be overlooked.

The Spartans have shown flashes of competitiveness throughout the season with an offense that ranks 117th in adjusted efficiency and 122nd in effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Additionally, their relatively low turnover percentage (77th) indicates a disciplined approach to ball handling and maintaining possession.

However, their struggles become apparent when looking at their offensive rebounding (343rd) and free-throw rates (358th), which suggest  significant challenges in generating second-chance points and capitalizing on free-throw opportunities — critical factors against a defensively stout team like San Diego State.

Defensively, the Spartans face an uphill battle as they rank 313th in adjusted efficiency and 345th in eFG% allowed. Their inability to force turnovers (257th) and secure defensive rebounds (219th) further exacerbates their defensive woes.

Against a team with the offensive efficiency of San Diego State, these statistics paint a concerning picture for the Spartans. San Jose State will need a significantly improved defensive effort to stay competitive in this matchup.

San Diego State stands as a formidable opponent, boasting the 52nd-ranked offense in adjusted efficiency. The Aztecs balanced attack is reflected in their rankings across offensive metrics, including a solid 147th in eFG% and a commendable 47th in free-throw percentage.

This efficiency at the line, combined with a respectable offensive rebounding rate (102nd), positions the Aztecs to exploit any of the Spartans' defensive lapses.

The Aztecs' defensive prowess is even more impressive as they rank 39th in adjusted efficiency and boast an elite status in eFG% allowed (7th). Their ability to disrupt opponents' shooting while maintaining solid turnover (86th) and defensive rebounding rates (105th) forms a comprehensive defensive strategy that has stifled many offenses this season.

The Spartans' offensive challenges will likely be magnified against such a robust defense, making scoring opportunities even harder to come by.

The Aztecs have been dominant and the Spartans have struggled this season, so I'm betting San Diego State to cover 20.5 points.

This bet is grounded in the Aztecs' overwhelming defensive metrics — particularly their ability to limit opponents' effective field goal percentage — combined with their efficient scoring and solid free-throw shooting. Against a San Jose State team struggling significantly on both ends of the court, San Diego State's balanced and disciplined approach should enable it to control the pace and exploit the Spartans' weaknesses.

San Diego State's consistent performance and strategic depth, against the backdrop of San Jose State's struggles, backs up the prediction. The Aztecs' ability to dominate defensively and capitalize on offensive opportunities presents a challenging scenario for San Jose State to overcome.

Take the Aztecs to cover the 20.5-point spread, even though the number is extremely high.

Pick: San Diego State -20.5