The Southern Methodist Mustangs take on the LSU Tigers in New Orleans, Louisiana. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
SMU is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a price of 53 cents to win and the total set at 158 points on Fanatics Markets.
Here’s my SMU vs. LSU predictions and college basketball picks for December 13, 2025.
SMU vs LSU Prediction
My Pick: LSU +2.5 or Better
My SMU vs LSU pick is on the Tigers to cover. For all of your college basketball picks, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
SMU vs. LSU Odds
(If you're unfamiliar with Fanatics Markets, read more here.)
SMU vs LSU College Basketball Preview
I haven’t been all too impressed with LSU.
The Tigers have played a cupcake schedule. Once they stepped up in competition, they were rocked by Texas Tech, 82-58. They also needed overtime to put away a garbage Boston College squad.
That said, SMU is due for a loss.
The Mustangs have played four top-100 teams so far. They beat Butler by two, beat Mississippi State and Texas A&M in overtime, and were blown out by Vanderbilt.
SMU has also been quite fortunate on the defensive end, with opponents shooting far below expectations from beyond the arc (28%; ShotQuality projects that mark closer to 33%).
While the betting line has moved a few points in SMU’s favor, I think the market is slightly overrating the Mustangs based on some close-game fortune.
Meanwhile, I still project LSU as a slight favorite in this neutral-court battle, so I’m happy to grab a few points with the Tigers.
Check out all of McGrath's CBB Projections for Saturday's slate here:
From a schematic perspective, there are a few advantages for LSU, most of which come on the defensive end.
SMU is a fast-paced, downhill rim-running squad that is completely jump-shot averse. That’ll be a problem against LSU’s conservative, compact defense that allows plenty of jumpers but walls up in transition and rim denial.
On the other end of the court, I’m hopeful that LSU’s DHO and post offense will take advantage of a questionable SMU interior defense — for what it’s worth, the Mustangs have struggled mightily in covering DHO actions (.89 PPP allowed, 36th percentile) on high volume.
My Pick: LSU +2.5 or Better
