The SMU Mustangs take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, MS. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network+.
SMU is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 164.5 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Mississippi State prediction and college basketball picks for November 28, 2025.
SMU vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: SMU -1
My SMU vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Mustangs to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
SMU vs. Mississippi State Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 164.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 164.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- SMU vs Mississippi State spread: SMU -1
- SMU vs Mississippi State over/under: 164.5 points
- SMU vs Mississippi State moneyline: SMU -115, Mississippi State -105
SMU vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
SMU Basketball
This will be SMU’s first road contest of the season. The Mustangs are a cool 7-0 with a win over Butler, but all those victories have come within the friendly confines of Moody Coliseum.
The eye test suggests SMU is the far better team. Mississippi State State might have the best individual player on the floor in Josh Hubbard, but SMU’s collective backcourt is far better than Mississippi State’s, and big man Samet Yigitoglu is the best frontcourt player.
Offense should come easily for an SMU squad high on firepower against an Mississippi State squad that has struggled to stop just about anybody with its inability to put pressure on the ball.
Dribble penetration from SMU’s sensational guards, Boopie Miller, B.J. Edwards and Jaron Pierre Jr., will be unstoppable.
They should blow by a poor perimeter shell and find easy paint pull-ups and rim looks all game long.
Mississippi State Basketball
Chris Jans and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are off to a horrid 2025-26.
Weak transfer portal acquisitions have fueled the worst start in the four-year Jans era, as the Dogs have already dropped a game to a non-power-conference opponent and needed overtime to defeat New Orleans.
They have an opportunity on a sleepy Black Friday to catch a good SMU snoozing and notch what should be a Q2 win.
Mississippi State’s offense is a lot of Hubbard, as mentioned. He’s one of the highest-used players in the country, and the Bulldogs rely on him to hit tough step-back 3s and circus shots inside the arc.
Transfer Jayden Epps is the only other semi-competent creator, but his track record of taking poor shots and negatively affecting his team is well-documented.
Mississippi State State has one true rim protector in freshman Jamarion Davis-Fleming, but his offensive shortcomings limit his playing time.
SMU vs. Mississippi State Betting Analysis
Even though this is SMU’s first true road test, I’m backing the Ponies on Friday.
Mississippi State’s post-Thanksgiving crowd is sure to be docile, and Jans’ team is still clearly figuring things out.
My Pick: SMU -1
