The South Dakota State Jackrabbits take on the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson, AZ. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Arizona is favored by 32.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 160 points.
Here’s my South Dakota State vs. Arizona predictions and college basketball picks for December 29, 2025.
South Dakota State State vs Arizona Prediction
My Pick: Arizona -32.5 (Play to -35)
My South Dakota State vs Arizona best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
South Dakota State vs. Arizona Odds
| South Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+32.5 -110 | 160 -110 / -110 | OFF |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-32.5 -110 | 160 -110 / -110 | OFF |
- South Dakota State vs Arizona spread: Arizona -32.5
- South Dakota State vs Arizona over/under: 160 points
South Dakota State vs Arizona College Basketball Betting Preview
South Dakota State Basketball
South Dakota State appears headed for a bit of a down season in the first year post-Eric Henderson. The Jackrabbits are 7-7 with three of the four wins coming against non-Division I foes.
The Jackrabbits' offense isn't as explosive as it has been in past seasons. They rank 183rd in offensive efficiency and don't shoot it well enough, connecting on 32% of their 3s. That's a problem since South Dakota State attempts 3s on 42% of its field goals.
The guards have to shoot it well because they're all undersized and attempt more 3s than 2s. Kalen Garry, Joe Sayler and Jaden Jackson each average 10-12 points per game and shoot 35-41% from deep. Garry is hitting 41%, but Jackson is the top scorer of the bunch.
This could be a tough game for South Dakota State's interior. With 6-foot-7 Matthew Mors and 6-foot-10 Alec Squires starting, that'll present a huge size disadvantage against Arizona's bigs.
Mors has really struggled, shooting just 41% from the field and 27% from deep.
While Squires is a "starter," sophomore big Damon Wilkinson is the main minutes getter. Wilkinson is a highly-skilled post scorer whom Arizona will look to take away.
Defense is a bit of an issue for the Jackrabbits. They sit 213th in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric, and opponents shoot 52% from inside the arc against them.
I'm also eyeing potential defensive regression in the 3-point department for South Dakota State.
The Jackrabbits are holding teams to 31% shooting on 3s, with 47% of opponents' field goals coming from downtown. That should lead to some regression.
Arizona Basketball
Arizona should take care of business against South Dakota State. That's not a groundbreaking statement; it's a -32.5 point favorite. The bigger question is: Can Arizona cover the lofty spread?
The Wildcats are no strangers to lofty spreads. They were close to 30-point favorites in six of their 12 games this season. Despite the big spreads, betting on Arizona has been profitable, as it's covering at a 63.1% clip.
Arizona is one of the best two-way teams in the country, ranking third in defensive efficiency and 10th in offensive efficiency. Being able to win a shootout and a rock fight isn't something most squads can do. However, Arizona is just fine in both settings.
In this matchup, the Wildcats' length should overwhelm a smaller South Dakota State squad. Freshman phenom Koa Peat will be a particularly difficult matchup for South Dakota State. His opposition — Mors — is less agile, an inch shorter and 25 pounds lighter.
I also expect Arizona to dominate the offensive glass, as it has all year. It grabs 42% of its misses — a top-five mark in America. The center tandem of 7-footer Mo Krivas and Tobe Awaka — the offensive rebounding dynamo — is a totally dominant duo.
That's how teams like Arizona and other top-tier squads can cover these wild spreads: dominating on the glass and forcing turnovers. The Cats also boast a 19% turnover rate, so the shot-volume battle figures to favor the home team.
Also, keep an eye on freshman guard Brayden Burries, who went into the holiday break on a heater. He scored 15+ points in five of his past six games and looks like the clear go-to scoring option on the Wildcats' roster.
South Dakota State vs. Arizona Betting Analysis
I'd be a bit surprised if South Dakota State keeps this one close. Not only is South Dakota State a poor shooting team, but it also doesn't have the size to battle Arizona's length and athleticism.
The pace is also something to watch. Arizona is 44th in adjusted tempo and South Dakota State is 177th.
If this game is played in the full-court, Arizona should be on its way to a cover.
My Pick: Arizona -32.5 (Play to -35)
