College Basketball Odds & Prediction for TCU vs Utah State: Our Top NCAA Tournament Pick

Let's take a look at the college basketball odds for TCU vs. Utah State and make a prediction and pick for their NCAA Tournament game on Friday, March 22.

Jamie Dixon's 9-seeded TCU Horned Frogs are looking for vengeance in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Frogs are a gritty group, which will come into play right away against the 8-seeded Utah State Aggies.

The Aggies won the Mountain West regular-season title, led by Mountain West Player of the Year Great Osobor. Utah State had a disappointing run in its conference tournament, but the Aggies are a talented group.

If you enjoy physicality, look no further than this matchup. Let's break down these two teams to uncover the best bet for TCU vs. Utah State.

In TCU's Big 12 Tournament loss to Houston, the Cougars dominated the Horned Frogs by holding them to only 45 points.

To win against the Aggies, the Horned Frogs need to take advantage of their weak interior defense by scoring consistently inside. Although TCU doesn't depend on 3-pointers, it will have to make some in this game.

Fortunately, the Horned Frogs have a deeper and lengthier team. Defensively, TCU may face similar struggles as Utah State. While the Horned Frogs have not been strong in interior defense, they have a better chance of containing the Aggies on the perimeter.

TCU loves to get out in transition as much as it can, but Utah State is elite at stopping the fast break. That may force the Horned Frogs into more half-court sets than normal, which is not something they are efficient in.

However, I have confidence that the Horned Frogs can score enough inside to keep pace with the Aggies throughout.

During the regular season, the Aggies had a much tougher strength of schedule compared to the Horned Frogs, which is not surprising as the Mountain West has six NCAA Tournament teams.

Despite having similar strengths and weaknesses to TCU, Utah State has the thinner bench, which could be a major factor in this game. If the Horned Frogs maintain their usual physicality throughout the game, it could wear down the Aggies. Additionally, TCU has more experience playing against physical teams in the Big 12, especially Houston.

The Aggies are not a good 3-point shooting team, and they rely heavily on Osobor as their go-to guy. He is hands down the best player on the floor in this matchup.

Utah State's interior defense is even worse than TCU's, and the Aggies are not as elite on the perimeter. They have to hit some shots from deep if they are going to win this game.

Their defensive issues concern me, but I think they are capable enough to force the Horned Frogs into uncomfortable offensive sets.

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I originally thought I was going to back TCU heading into the week, but the market has gone too far on the number. I am happily taking the points with Utah State, in a game that should be closely contested until the final buzzer.

The Horned Frogs are not a great 3-point shooting team, so the Aggies' inability to hit shots from deep shouldn't play too much of a factor. With Osobor on our side, I'll take that any day of the week with the underdog.

Pick: Utah State +4.5 (Play to +3)