Texas Tech vs TCU Odds, Pick for Tuesday

TCU looks to continue its winning ways on Tuesday as it returns home and welcomes a red-hot Texas Tech team.

Despite a new-look roster, the Red Raiders have won 11 of their last 12 and hit the road for a physical clash with the Horned Frogs.

Can TCU stay fresh after a triple overtime win against Baylor on Saturday, or will its tired legs prove disastrous at home against a rolling Red Raiders squad?

Despite an overhaul of a roster in Grant McCasland’s first season as head coach, Texas Tech is off to a blistering start. The Red Raiders are 5-1 in Big 12 play and have picked up back-to-back marquee wins over BYU and Oklahoma.

Pop Isaacs remained in Lubbock for his sophomore season, and he’s made the leap to excellence. The guard averages a team-high 17 points per game and takes 31.6% of all shots while on the floor. The offense runs through him, and he ranks fourth in the Big 12 in fouls drawn per 40 minutes during conference play.

This team lacks size inside, and aside from 7-footer Warren Washington, the majority of Texas Tech’s rotation consists of players 6-foot-6 or below. This has led to a reliance on the perimeter, where the Red Raiders are extremely 3 happy.

But they’ve found plenty of success and rank 42nd in 3-point%. While Isaacs has struggled connecting from distance, players like Chance McMillian (43.8%) and Kerwin Walton (51.6%) have provided a significant boost.

It’s worth noting that McMillian ranks No. 1 in true-shooting% and second in offensive rating during Big 12 play. He enters off his best game as a Red Raider, a 27-point showing in which he nailed six triples in the road win over Oklahoma.

Texas Tech prefers a slow-paced grinder of a game. Its defense leaves a lot to be had, as it ranks outside the top 100 in both 3-point and 2-point defense. In general, McCasland’s squad gives up 40.8% of all attempts from the perimeter — 292nd in the country.

The Red Raiders' lack of size has often burned them on the defensive glass, too. They're 228th in allowing second-chance opportunities, which is the biggest edge a physical team like TCU has in these conference showdowns.

Battle-tested is the perfect word to describe TCU in conference play.

The Horned Frogs have been put through the grinder, with six of their seven games coming against teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 35.

TCU is just 4-3, but it already has wins against Houston and a triple overtime road win against Baylor under its belt. While it's a quick turnaround after that Saturday slugfest, a physical team like TCU shouldn’t suffer.

As mentioned earlier, the Horned Frogs rank 20th in offensive rebounding. They're at their best when they drive to the hoop and attack inside, ranking 30th in 2-point offense. TCU prefers a sped-up transition game on the offensive end; that's when its athleticism shines.

Jamie Dixon’s squad is among the most experienced in college hoops, and it has a deep roster that’s both long and athletic. The addition of Texas A&M-CC transfer Trevian Tennyson (46.1% from 3) has boosted this offense.

This season, the Frogs are much more consistent on the offensive end and just as disruptive defensively. They guard the perimeter extremely well — 40th in 3-point% — and are elite at forcing turnovers.

Their pressure and aggressiveness can — at times — lead to foul trouble, but that’s where TCU’s depth comes into play. For what it’s worth, the Horned Frogs also have six players that average at least nine points per game.

Despite its 4-3 conference record, TCU shouldn't be taken lightly. You know what you’re going to get with the Horned Frogs each game: a guaranteed slugfest.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

While it's a quick turnaround from a triple overtime bout with Baylor, I do find TCU to be undervalued on Tuesday.

The mismatch, when it comes to physicality and aggression, should be on display against Texas Tech.

While Washington is a capable rim protector, he's just 21st in Big 12 play in defensive rebounding. The Horned Frogs crash the glass hard and create second-chance opportunities at the third-highest rate in conference play. Texas Tech is second-to-last in defensive rebounding.

That, paired with expected regression from the Red Raiders from 3 — they're shooting 39.8% in conference play — against a long, defensive-savvy TCU squad, should shift the game in favor of Dixon and Co.

I expect a hungry TCU team in front of its home crowd. In its last time at Schollmaier Arena, it never led in a near come-from-behind loss to Iowa State. This is a much softer defense and one the Horned Frogs can take advantage of.

Back this battle-tested, deep TCU squad to hand the red-hot Red Raiders their second loss in Big 12 play.

Pick: TCU -4.5 (Play to -5.5)