UConn vs Xavier Odds, Pick for Wednesday

We head out to the Cintas Center in Cincinnati, Ohio, where the Xavier Musketeers will host the UConn Huskies. A month ago, many would expected this to be a lopsided matchup. However, that is no longer the case.

Sean Miller's Musketeers are playing much better basketball as of late, despite losing two of their past three contests. Meanwhile, the Huskies have been taking care of business since their loss to Seton Hall on December 20th.

The Big East is easily a top-three conference in terms of overall talent, so it's safe to say this will be a highly contested matchup.

Here's UConn vs. Xavier odds and a pick for Wednesday.

After getting dominated at Seton Hall, the Huskies have rattled off three consecutive wins, which is even more impressive when it's noted that star Donovan Clingan has been out and isn't expected back for another few weeks.

A fully healthy Huskies team is easily good enough to make another Final Four run, but it's they can also be exposed without Clingan. For this game in particular, the Huskies may be in more trouble than many think.

For instance, they enter this game third in adjusted offensive efficiency. They'll need to continue that elite production as they don't want to get caught napping against Xavier's stingy defense.

UConn is an impressive second in 2PT%, but most of that data is from when Clingan was in the lineup. The Huskies' interior presence — on both ends of the floor — isn't nearly the same without him.

The Huskies chuck up a fair amount of shots from 3, but are only 152nd in 3PT%. Xavier is elite when it comes to defending the 3, so UConn could be in some trouble.

The defense could also be in a bit of trouble in this matchup. The Huskies are 261st in opponent 3PT%, so if they continue to allow open looks, they could find themselves in a deep hole.

Dan Hurley's team isn't one to sleepwalk, but going on the road against a 7-7 conference opponent has the makings of a trap game. The Huskies better come out firing and take the arena out of the game early.

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The Musketeers are 345th in Minutes Continuity, but you'd never expect it based on how they've played over the past month. 

Xavier has a golden opportunity to pick off the Huskies, especially since UConn be without one of its stars.

We spoke about the Musketeers 3-point defense, which will be critical in this matchup. It's also remarkable that they are identical in 2-point defense, another area in which they should control this game. 

The backcourt matchup will be massive in this contest. Guards Dayvion McKnight and Quincy Olivari have the ability to take over games, especially Olivari, who is shooting 41% from deep. 

The offense has been careless with the ball at times, but that shouldn't play too much of a factor against the Huskies, who don't force many turnovers. 

I have a feeling the Musketeers are going to win the rebounding battle, which correlates with more scoring chances. This is a terrific offensive rebounding team and I expect them to get a ton of opportunities at the charity stripe. 

The x-factor in this matchup is forwardGytis Nemeiksa, who is shooting 39% from deep. He also possesses a great ability to attack the rim, which will be critical against UConn.

They won't be the most talented team on the floor, but this is a great spot for the Musketeers. If they can continue their superior defense and capitalize at the charity stripe, I like their chances to flirt with a home upset.

Despite their excellent recent play without Clingan, the Huskies are a bit fortunate to have won three in a row. They easily could have lost to Butler if it wasn't for a lot of speculative foul calls in the second half.

According to Shotquality, the Huskies are due for some regression, which could come into effect any day now. When Clingan is back and fully healthy, I'll be all aboard the Huskies train once again.

But, this is the time to buy low on Xavier at home.

I'll gladly back the Musketeers plus the points at home as This is a great spot for Sean Miller's squad.

Pick: Xavier +4.5

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