The VCU Rams play the Illinois Fighting Illini in the second round of the NCAA Tournament in Greenville, South Carolina, on Saturday, March 21. Tip-off is set for 7:50 p.m. ET on CBS.
Illinois is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -610. Meanwhile, VCU enters as the underdog at +10.5 with a moneyline of +440. The over/under sits at 152.5 total points.
Here’s my VCU vs. Illinois prediction and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 21.
VCU vs Illinois Prediction
My Pick: VCU +11.5
My VCU vs Illinois best bet is on the Rams to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
VCU vs Illinois Odds
| VCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -102 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +440 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -120 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -610 |
- VCU vs Illinois Spread: Illinois -10.5, VCU +10.5
- VCU vs Illinois Over/Under: 152.5 Points
- VCU vs Illinois Moneyline: VCU +440, Illinois -610
VCU vs Illinois NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
VCU had the best comeback of the NCAA Tournament thus far. The Rams trailed North Carolina by 19 in the second half, but Terrence Hill Jr. and his 34 points willed them to an overtime win.
In this matchup against No. 3 seed Illinois, the Rams will need to overcome a substantial height disparity.
They start just one player over 6-foot-8 (Lazar Djokovic), while Illinois starts four players 6-foot-6 or taller, with 7-foot-1 big man Tomislav Ivisic at the five.
I don't think VCU will beat Illinois, but I think it can frustrate it enough to keep it within single digits.
For one, this Illini team loves to shoot 3s, and they're willing to use most of the shot clock to find a 3 or a cutter at the hoop.
Illinois attempts 3s on 50.6% of its shots and makes just 34% of them. But it's a five-out offensive alignment that opens up the lane to score inside, as it shoots 58% on 2s.
The Rams will also need to work hard to keep Illinois off the offensive glass. That's one of the strengths of this Illini squad, as they grab offensive boards 38% of the time.
Illinois is a solid defensive team, as well, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency. It just doesn't hunt for steals often, posting the lowest turnover rate in the country (11.6%).
Opponents struggle to score on Illinois' length, as it holds teams to 48% on 2s. It also holds teams to 31% from deep.
The one way teams can do damage to this Illinois defense is by spacing it out. VCU can do that with Djokovic's shooting ability, as he converts on 3s at a 36% clip.
That's why the Rams can stay tight with Illinois. They shoot 3s often (43% rate) and hit 36.9% of them. Everybody in the lineup can hit 3s, with Hill's 37% leading the way. Nyk Lewis is also a strong shooter next to Hill, hitting 36% of his 3s.
The pace is something that could play a big role, too.
VCU is a faster-tempo squad, ranking 117th in adjusted tempo compared to Illinois, which sits at 276th.
If the speedy VCU guards, Lewis and Brandon Jennings, can disrupt the steady play of Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell, that's a boost for the underdog.
Wagler is a total monster. He leads the Illini with 17.9 points per game, 4.9 rebounds per game and 4.5 assists per game but had a few clunkers late in the year. He seemed to hit the proverbial freshman wall but posted 18-7-7 in the first round against Penn.
VCU vs Illinois Pick, Betting Analysis
In all, the result of this one will boil down to one thing: Can VCU limit Illinois' shooting?
The Rams' rim defense is strong, holding teams to 48% on 2s. So, they'll need to lock in on limiting the deep shots, which they usually do. Teams shoot 3s just 34% of the time against VCU and make 32% of them.
I'm rolling with VCU here at anything in double digits.
Illinois is fully capable of a big performance on offense, but it gave up 1.03 points per possession to Penn, a much worse offense than the Rams.
The speed and shot-creation of the guards on Phil Martelli Jr.'s squad should keep it tight.
My Pick: VCU +11.5 (Play to +9.5)
