Villanova vs Creighton Odds, Pick for Wednesday

The Big East has kicked off conference play as Wednesday offers a myriad of fascinating matchups. None fit that bill more than this clash between the Villanova Wildcats and Creighton Bluejays.

Creighton and Villanova are two of the most 3-point happy teams in the country, setting up this game to be a battle of long range bombs. Don't let those stats fully deceive you, however. Each of these teams has one of the best big men in the Big East in Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner and Villanova's Eric Dixon. Last season, Dixon's 31-point performance sparked an upset of the Bluejays by the Wildcats.

Will this game be decided by the deep ball or the big men?

We're waist-deep into the second year of the Kyle Neptune regime at Villanova, and life on the court has been consistently confusing for the Wildcats. Neptune's rosters don't seem to have the natural synergy or veteran presence that we saw from Jay Wright's teams that claimed two national championships and had a stranglehold on the Big East.

Last season's roster lacked the talent to compete, with injuries to Cam Whitmore and Justin Moore leaving Villanova shorthanded. Neptune ensured that wouldn't happen again as he raided the transfer portal for four of his top-nine players this season. Instead of shorthanded, Villanova has looked out of sorts and streaky.

The Cats won the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament with wins over North Carolina, Memphis and Texas Tech but were somehow swept in Philadelphia's Big 5 games as they lost to Penn, St. Joe's and Drexel.

Everything on offense feels like a settle for this Villanova team, with the Wildcats among the most 3-point happy teams in college basketball. There's nothing wrong with embracing the outside shot, as we'll note with Creighton, but it's a lot harder to commit to that line of thinking with a roster that doesn't have enough shooting. Villanova is taking 3s at the third-highest rate in the nation but making just 32% of their attempts from beyond the arc.

That has led to long stretches of scoreless ball and can often spark opposing teams into transition opportunities off of misses.

Additionally, Justin Moore, who missed the last game for Villanova and is second on the team in scoring average at 13.3 points per game, will also miss tonight's matchup with a knee injury.

Creighton, meanwhile, takes even more deep shots per game than Villanova, launching 29.8 every time out. The difference is that Creighton has a few deadeye shooters and as a team is making nearly 39% of 3s, good for 25th in the country. Down the roster, Greg McDermott has players worthy of the green light he's installed on the 3-point arc.

Mason Miller is perhaps the most exciting shooter this season for Creighton. The six-foot-nine sophomore clearly takes after his father, longtime NBA sniper Mike Miller, and has made 59.4% from 3-point land, the third-best mark in the country.

His shooting along with other fiery role players, like Francisco Farabello, have opened up lanes for creators like Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman and Steven Ashworth to create movement. This all works in concert around Kalkbrenner, the seven-footer in the middle who is a high-level rim runner and roll man after setting screens on the perimeter.

McDermott has always been a sharp offensive coach, but this team really gives him the tools to showcase his scheme.

Creighton's issues under his tutelage have generally come on defense. A lot of potential issues on that side of the floor are canceled by Kalkbrenner's rim protection. When he avoids foul trouble, he challenges any driver and forces tough looks.

Both teams here love the long ball. Creighton shoots it well, while Villanova hasn't.

There's a more stark difference to note: for Creighton, the 3-pointer is an across the board philosophy. The Bluejays take the 3 at one of the highest rates nationally and are one of the best teams at running shooters off the 3-point line defensively. No team in the entire country is allowing a higher percentage of its opponent's points to come on 2-point baskets than Creighton.

Villanova, by contrast, takes 3s and seems to be fine allowing them. The Wildcats rank sixth in percentage of points allowed from beyond the arc. Every Villanova game feels like a shooting contest. If we rolled the balls out and simply had a shooting contest, I'd back Creighton easily here.

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Yet, in a weird way, Creighton's refusal to allow 3-point attempts might actually help Villanova. The Wildcats are simply shooting too many outside shots, and they might be better off attacking the paint.

Dixon has long relished his chances to play Kalkbrenner. He dominated the matchup last year, going for 20+ points in all three meetings, and he has averaged 16.5 points per game against the Bluejays in his career.

Feeding the big man inside might do Villanova some good — not necessarily good enough to steal a win in Omaha, but with that offensive boost combined with the sheer number of 3s in this game, I can't help but take the over.

Pick: Over 141.5 or Better