UT Arlington vs Grand Canyon Pick & Prediction for Saturday

Grand Canyon attempts to make back-to-back NCAA tournaments for the first time in program history. The decision to bring in Bryce Drew changed the program's trajectory, and now the Lopes find themselves one game away from the Big Dance.

Standing in their way is the UT Arlington Mavericks.

But first, let's look at the Lopes, who have dominated all year. They're 55th in KenPom's rankings with a 27-4 record. Grand Canyon lost three conference games — all on the road — against Seattle, Abilene Christian and Stephen F. Austin.

That trio of teams made Grand Canyon's usually dominant offense look out of sync.

GCU's two best players — Tyon Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison — form one of the best duos in mid-major land.

Grant-Foster easily secured WAC Player of the Year and scored 28 points with six rebounds in GCU's semifinal win over Seattle. The length of the 6-foot-7 Grant-Foster — paired with his shot-creation ability — makes him a nightmare for opponents.

Harrison willingly accepted a secondary scoring role, focusing more on facilitating as Grant-Foster shoulders the scoring load. That's an underrated luxury for Coach Drew.

Grand Canyon is also an exceptional offensive rebounding team, cleaning up the glass on 34% of misses. Bigs Gabe McGlothan and Duke Brennan are like vacuums on the glass, grabbing over two offensive rebounds each per game.

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While Grand Canyon's offense received the attention, defense is the team's strong suit. The Lopes rank 55th nationally in Defensive Efficiency while limiting opponents to the country's eighth-lowest effective field goal percentage.

Grand Canyon's length is partly the reason for the team's success defending the interior. All five GCU starters stand 6-foot-4 or taller and three are 6-foot-7 or taller, which leads to suffocating shot contests at the hoop.

Grand Canyon allowed 34+ free throws in all three conference losses. That's a bad trend the Lopes hope to avoid in the conference title game.

As for the Mavericks, first-year head coach KT Turner leads an exciting style of play, as UT Arlington pushes the pace and shoots a lot of jumpers.

The Mavs shoot 3s on 42% of their possessions, but a lot of the 3s come from pristine ball movement. UTA ranks 17th in assists percentage.

UT Arlington has made just one NCAA tournament in program history — back in 2008. The Mavs haven't done a whole lot of winning since Scott Cross left for Troy a few years back, so Turner turning things around this promptly is exciting.

The Mavs scored 1.60 PPP against Stephen F. Austin in the quarterfinals and 1.30 PPP against Tarleton State in the semis. Once the offense gets rolling, it's a scary sight for the opposition.

Moreover, the Mavs have a fearsome guard trio in Phillip Russell, Makaih Williams and DaJuan Gordon. All three guards post double-digit points, but Gordon is the most important — due to his two-way ability. He'll likely draw a tough defensive assignment — likely on Harrison, so that it won't be an easy game for the veteran guard.

The Mavs will need a lights-out scoring performance from someone, and Russell is the best bet for a big scoring game. He made the NCAA tournament with Southeast Missouri State last year and will look to make the Big Dance with a different squad in 2024.

The Lopes edged out a narrow win over UT Arlington in the first meeting, but they stormed back from down 14 points in the second half. Grand Canyon had an awful performance, going just 4-of-19 from 3 with 19 turnovers.

That's as bad of an offensive performance as Grand Canyon has posted all season.

There's a different aura around this GCU squad, and anything short of an NCAA tournament bid wouldn't feel right.

Pick: Grand Canyon -6 (Play to -6.5)