The Wichita State Shockers take on the Saint Mary's Gaels in Nassau, Bahamas, in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Saint Mary's is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. The total is set at 138.5 points.
Here’s my Wichita State vs. Saint Mary's predictions and college basketball picks for November 26, 2025.
Wichita State vs Saint Mary's Prediction
My Pick: Wichita State +10.5 | Over 138.5
My Wichita State vs Saint Mary's best bet is on the Shockers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wichita State vs. Saint Mary's Odds
| Wichita State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
- Wichita State vs Saint Mary's spread: Saint Mary's -10.5
- Wichita State vs Saint Mary's over/under: 138.5 points
- Wichita State vs Saint Mary's moneyline: Wichita State +500, Saint Mary's -700
Wichita State vs Saint Mary's College Basketball Betting Preview
The Shockers are 4-1 straight-up this season and have won four straight games after dropping a tight 75-72 opener to a scrappy Missouri State squad.
The Shockers are holding opponents to just 71.2 points per game on 44.8% shooting allowed — a step ahead of the 48.1% Saint Mary's has yielded in its six blowouts, though the Gaels' deliberate half-court sets have masked those figures in low-possession affairs.
Meanwhile, Saint Mary's sits at 6-0, capping a dominant run with an 89-76 thumping of San Francisco, where Mikey Lewis torched the Dons for 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting, and Paulius Murauskas chipped in 19 on 7-of-11 shooting.
The Gaels' interior has wobbled in certain scenarios, though, giving up 78+ points in games against mid-majors that exposed their paint leaks.
Entering this neutral-site clash, the Gaels' games have averaged a methodical 152.4 points, 13.9 over Wednesday's number, powered by Lewis' pull-up bursts and second-chance boards.
Meanwhile, Wichita State's sits at 149.2 points — comfortably north of the line — against overmatched foes. Saint Mary's frontcourt muscle, anchored by its 43.2-rebound average, could slow that rhythm.
Still, with both squads on short rest from multi-game island hops, exhaustion tips the balance toward sloppy turnovers over stops.
For this particular game, the angle comes from Evan Abrams' "Neutral-Site Neutral" system.
In college basketball, neutral-site early-season games often breed conditions ripe for balanced scoring outputs, especially when both teams boast top-100 offenses but have middling defenses still shaking off rust.
Relocation to unfamiliar venues disrupts routine scouting and on-site adjustments, softening perimeter rotations while offenses lean on familiar pick-and-roll wrinkles.
Mid-afternoon tip times in tropical setups can also spark up-tempo stretches via open-floor leaks and hasty resets, particularly in non-conference slots with elevated shot volumes.
When squads arrive fresh off tournament legs with an under 48-hour breather, physical tolls erode box-out discipline and closeout speed, tilting toward mutual regression on the over throughout recent campaigns (58% hit rate in comparable neutral spots since 2021, per advanced metrics).
The real value lies in riding the over, as early-season flux in rebound-heavy, short-rest tilts forges a crisp counter to the line's underbaked projection.
Shifting to the spread, the play lands on Wichita State +10.5, backed by a proprietary system targeting early-season public fades on neutral floors.
This system identifies early-season college basketball teams that are heavily faded by the public yet still play at home or on neutral courts. These are games within the first four of the season, where perception is driven more by last year’s narratives than current reality.
The focus is on teams receiving a small share of spread bets, meaning the market has largely written them off despite competitive lines between 2.5 and 10 points.
In these situations, the lack of public support inflates the value of the underappreciated side. Early games often feature rust, roster turnover and limited data, which narrows the gap between teams.
By siding with the overlooked home or neutral team, the system capitalizes on inflated spreads and market bias before the true performance level is reflected in the odds.
My Pick: Wichita State +10.5 | Over 138.5
