College Basketball Odds, Pick for Wisconsin vs Ohio State

The Wisconsin Badgers face off with the Ohio State Buckeyes on Wednesday in a marquee Big Ten matchup. Both teams are poised to reach the NCAA tournament and could contend at the top of the Big Ten. The Badgers rank an impressive 12th in overall efficiency, per KenPom, while the Buckeyes rank 36th.

The Bucks have a worse defense than the Badgers, but both teams run at some of the slowest paces in the conference, and frankly, in the nation.

Wisconsin ranks seventh in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 35th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Like the Buckeyes, the Badgers are worse on the defense end.

However, the Badgers rank 318th overall in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom. They average 19.5 seconds per possession on the offensive end and 16.8 seconds per possession on defense.

Even though the Badgers allow other teams to play at their preferred tempo, they slow the ball down on offense, which is critical to an under.

The Badgers maintain control over the ball, ranking 42nd in offensive turnover rate. OSU ranks 135th offensively, but on the defensive end, Wisconsin ranks 101st in turnover rate. Neither team forces the opponent to make mistakes, so expect this game to remain in the half court.

Wisconsin thrives on the glass. The Badgers rank 90th offensively and seventh defensively. OSU ranks 17th offensively and 130th defensively. Look for the Badgers to scoop up boards immediately and limit OSU to one shot on average per possession.

On the other end of the floor, it should be closer to a wash.

The Badgers would seemingly shoot better if they carried a top-10 offense, right? This season, they're shooting 34.1% from deep and 53.5% from 2-point range. They rank 123rd in Open 3 Rate and 186th in Rim-and-3 Rate, per ShotQuality.

OSU ranks 208th in defensive Open 3 Rate and third in defensive Rim-and-3 Rate, so Wisconsin may not be taking as many efficient shots in the aggregate.

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On the other side of the floor, OSU has shot well from deep but horribly inside. The Bucks are hitting 37% from downtown and only 49.9% from the interior.

That said, they rank 171st in 3-point attempt rate and 148th in free-throw attempt rate. This means that OSU isn't getting to the line much, and it's not even taking the most efficient shots. This is crucial in this matchup because Wisconsin is allowing opponents to shoot 35.5% from deep and ranks 198th in 3-point attempt rate.

In addition, OSU ranks 41st in Open 3 Rate and 307th in Rim-and-3 Rate. Wisconsin ranks 283rd and 19th defensively, respectively.

Like with the Buckeyes on defense, the Badgers should limit their opponent inside. They could allow OSU to shoot as many 3s as it wants, but unless the Buckeyes change their game plan entirely, expect to see them shoot an equal number of 2s and 3s.

Neither of these teams gets to the free-throw line often. Unless the Buckeyes light it up from downtown and crush the Badgers, this game should go under the total.

Neither team allows efficient interior play, which is where many of the shots will be taken in this game. Yes, Wisconsin can't guard from deep, but OSU, at least, ranks 72nd in 3-point attempt rate on defense. This should restrict 3s from Wisconsin’s end.

Bet this under from 140.5 and play it to 139.

Pick: Under 140.5 (Play to 139)

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