Xavier vs St. John’s Odds, Pick for Wednesday

Below, we have Xavier vs St. John's odds and a pick for Wednesday.

Rick Pitino's highly-anticipated start to Big East play begins on Wednesday as St. John's hosts Xavier at Carnesecca Arena.

Non-conference play was a bit bumpy for Pitino's squad, as it finished 7-3 with one mediocre loss to Boston College and other losses to Michigan and Dayton.

Xavier was always expected to take a step back this season, given the amount of talent it lost in the offseason from an old roster last year. Regardless, the Musketeers badly underachieved expectations in the non-conference.

Losses to Purdue and Houston are fine, but Xavier lost at home to Delaware and Oakland and had one big win — neutral vs. Saint Mary's, which isn't nearly as good as expected. The home rivalry win against Cincinnati showed what this offense can be though, and it's time to buy low on both of these offenses in this one.

Xavier went from an elite offense last season to a unit that's largely struggled to score points thus far in 2023. It's not a surprise to see a vastly different team in 2023-24, given that Xavier ranks in the bottom 25 in minutes continuity from last year to this year.

It's still the same underlying play style though, which relies heavily on running in transition whenever possible and getting the ball to the rim at will.

The Musketeers enter Wednesday just 72nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom. The numbers are weighed down a bit by the early-season struggles, and the market is still catching up to the improvements made in the last month.

For example, the Musketeers posted an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating below 103 in three of their first four games. This made sense with all of the turnover within the program, but you can always count on a great coach like Sean Miller to improve the unit.

In the six games since, Xavier has posted an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency north of 107.5 in five of them. The Musketeers have two capable ball handlers and passers to run the offense and keep the ball moving, which is a key for a team that relies on chemistry and plays as fast as Xavier wants to.

The Musketeers also should be able to rack up a bunch of fouls and get free points from the line in this one — since SJU fouls a lot.

The Musketeers have considerably better rim protection this season, but there's still regression coming for the Xavier defense. The Musketeers have allowed teams to shoot just 29% from 3 this year, and they're a middling perimeter defense, per ShotQuality.

If Pitino wants to take the Red Storm back to the NCAA tournament in his first year in Queens, he'll need to bolster their resumé with really high-quality play in the league. Why? Because the Johnnies' non-conference resumé only has one true quality victory — a neutral-court win against Utah.

Joel Soriano is the Red Storm's most important player and is a huge reason why they're second in the country in offensive rebounding rate and 32nd in 2-point field goal percentage allowed. Soriano's rim protection, blocks and efficient offense have carried the Red Storm thus far.

They need more production from the backcourt to take the next step up offensively.

This is a great matchup for the St. John's offense overall. The Musketeers have guarded ball screens well, but they're quite vulnerable to cutting actions and mid-range shots, which are two areas that SJU likes to run its offense through.

The ShotQuality metrics suggest there's positive regression coming for the Red Storm when it comes to finishing at the rim. They've underperformed around the rim to this point, and it's weighed down their overall offensive efficiency.

Both of these offenses are running transition at a top-50 clip. St. John's isn't playing quite as fast as it did last year under Mike Anderson, but both teams are trending up in tempo and playing at a top-70 pace already.

Given the defensive regression looming for Xavier, St. John's ability to get second-chance looks and Xavier's upward trend offensively, the total is a few points short at 155.

I'd play the over at 158 or better.

Pick: Over 155 (Play to 158)

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