S. Florida vs. North Texas Odds & Betting Predictions - October 10, 2025

POTD: While South Florida checks in at #24 in the AP Poll, our numbers rank them as just the 48th best team in the country. Their inflated perception largely stems from early season wins over Boise State and Florida. Meanwhile, North Texas hasn’t had the same scheduling advantages and is still flying under the radar. That changes tonight. The Mean Green offense is electric, ranking top 25 overall and top 20 in passing efficiency. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has been nothing short of elite, tossing 11 touchdowns without a single interception. He owns the fourth highest passing grade in the country with 10 big time throws and just one turnover worthy play. This offensive system has been proven over the years, just look at Virginia’s resurgence under QB Chandler Morris, who happened to be the North Texas quarterback last season. This offense can score on anyone, and they should find plenty of success again tonight. The biggest difference for North Texas, though, is on the defensive side of the ball. What was a liability last season has turned into a legitimate strength. New defensive coordinator Skyler Cassidy has rebuilt this unit, bringing over several key pieces from Sam Houston State. Sam Houston has plummeted from 10 wins last year to an 0-6 record this season without Cassidy and these defensive pieces. North Texas ranks 19th in defensive grade and first nationally in tackling. They’re also top 30 in success rate allowed, a complete turnaround from a year ago. The secondary has been excellent, which will be crucial against a South Florida offense that thrives on explosive plays. While explosive, South Florida’s offense ranks just 92nd in quality drive rate and 98th in success rate. Everything runs through quarterback Byrum Brown. The Bulls offensive line has struggled badly, especially in the run game. Outside of Brown’s scrambles, their ground attack has been nearly nonexistent. When it comes down to it, North Texas simply has the more consistent offense and is more complete in the trenches. If their defense continues to perform, there’s no reason they can’t stay undefeated. South Florida also ranks 6th in our luck ratings, suggesting their record has come with plenty of good fortune. Our model projects North Texas to win 34.79-26.96, implying a fair spread of -7.84. The data loves North Texas in this spot and so do I. I’ll take North Texas to win a massive game at home.