2019 College Football Rankings: Playoff Rankings, AP Poll Top 25 vs. Betting Power Ratings for Week 14

2019 College Football Rankings: Playoff Rankings, AP Poll Top 25 vs. Betting Power Ratings for Week 14 article feature image
Credit:

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Queen

  • We're comparing three kinds of college football rankings -- the playoff top 25, AP Poll and our betting power ratings -- to see which teams are overvalued and undervalued.
  • Minnesota and Baylor are still overrated, while USC, Auburn and Oregon are among the most underrated teams, according to our power ratings.

We’re here. The final week of the college football regular season. And by now, we have a pretty good idea of who is for real and who isn’t.

The top seven teams in the country are the same in our ratings, the AP Poll and College Football Playoff Top 25 — Ohio State, Clemson, LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Utah and Oklahoma, in some order. We have Clemson at No. 1 entering Week 14.

Those teams, plus Minnesota and Baylor, are still jockeying for spots in the College Football Playoff. But the Gophers and Bears are outside the top 15 by our measures.

Our power ratings are not meant to predict who should be in the CFP, but instead judge teams on quality of performance and true boxscore data. Not just wins and loses.

Let’s compare the three sets to see how they differ, and which teams might be overvalued in the national landscape.

2019 College Football Rankings, Week 14

Overrated

Minnesota

  • Playoff Top 25: 8
  • AP Poll: 9
  • Power Ratings: 18

The Gophers have been overrated relative to their standing in the AP Poll and College Football Playoff Top 25 for several weeks now, but their offense is legit and one of the 10 best in the country by most measures.

Minnesota has steadily been rising in our power ratings for weeks now, even with a loss to Iowa. It could move into the top 15 with a win at Wisconsin.

Baylor

  • Playoff Top 25: 9
  • AP Poll: 11
  • Power Ratings: 16

Baylor followed up a brutal loss against Oklahoma with a convincing win over Texas, but we’ve still got the Bears outside our top 15.

Cincinnati

  • Playoff Top 25: 19
  • AP Poll: 18
  • Power Ratings: 47

Why is Cincinnati an 11-point favorite against Memphis this week, despite their rankings being nearly identical? The Bearcats’ boxscores haven’t been impressive in the last two months. They’ve only outgained one opponent

Memphis, on the other hand, is rolling. The Tigers average 7.09 yards per play on offense to rank No. 6 in the nation, and rank No. 9 in yards per play differential. Cincy ranks 54th.

Appalachian State

  • Playoff Top 25: 25
  • AP Poll: 22
  • Power Ratings: 55

The Mountaineers don’t even crack the top 50 in our rankings, largely because the Sun Belt can’t compete talent-wise with the rest of the country.

The Mountaineers do still have an outside shot at Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl spot, but they would need some chaos in the AAC and Boise State to lose to Hawaii in the Mountain West title game.

Underrated

Oregon

  • Playoff Top 25: 9
  • AP Poll: 14
  • Power Ratings: 14

Our ratings tend to not be as reactive as the AP Poll and sometimes the College Football Playoff committee, so the Ducks remained in the top 10 despite a loss at Arizona State.

USC

  • Playoff Top 25: 22
  • AP Poll: 25
  • Power Ratings: 19

The Trojans have quietly hung tough in most of their games this season, and handed an otherwise unflappable Utah team its only loss.

USC has a bye week this week, so they’ll head into the postseason at 8-4, but slightly underrated according to our power ratings. The only way they can reach the Pac-12 championship is if Colorado wins at Utah this weekend.

Auburn

  • Playoff Top 25: 15
  • AP Poll: 16
  • Power Ratings: 11

Like many upper-middle-class SEC teams, Auburn flies under the radar a little bit in the national landscape. The Tigers are among the best teams in the country (11th per our ratings), but quickly drop with losses, which will happen against a brutal SEC schedule.

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