How to Bet Power 5 Conference Over/Under Props for the 2022 NFL Draft
Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: An SEC logo at Tiger Stadium.
- The 2022 NFL Draft is upon us, which means a number of college football players will realize their dreams.
- The SEC is set to lead the way with the most first-round picks, followed by the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12.
- Alex Hinton breaks down his top over/under props by conference below.
Over the last six years, Power Five programs have accounted for 88% of the first-round NFL Draft selections. That trend appears as if it will continue this year with another draft class loaded with talent from the top conferences in college football.
Below, I take a dive into the projected first-round draft picks by each Power Five conference.
First-Round Selections By Conference
It just means more in the Southeast Conference — a saying long proven in the NFL Draft.
The NFL draft is one week away.
Most players drafted by conference:
Will the streak continue?
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) April 21, 2022
The SEC has seen over a dozen players go in the first round each of the last two years. That trend is slated to continue Thursday night in Las Vegas.
Alabama is up to its old tricks with four players likely to hear their name in the first round. Georgia is poised to best the Tide once again, potentially having six players go in the top 32. Travon Walker, Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean and Devonte Wyatt are all a near certainty to go in the first round.
The SEC also has a few other studs who are locks to go in the top 32. Among them are LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr., Mississippi State’s Charles Cross and Arkansas’ Treylon Burks.
The SEC will remain king and find a comfortable double-digit amount of players taken in the first round.
Pick: Over 10.5 SEC Players Drafted in the First Round
There’s little debate that the Pac-12 sits at the bottom of the totem pole in terms of the Power Five conferences. The conference finds itself in the midst of a five-year College Football Playoff drought. It lost all four of its bowl matchups last season and its only two the year prior.
The Pac-12 has had five first-round draft picks just once over the last six years, a tendency set to continue.
Kayvon Thibodeaux is the shining star of the Pac-12 and set to be a top-five selection. Drake London out of USC is widely anticipated to be the first wide receiver taken in the draft.
The conference also boasts Washington’s Trent McDuffie and Utah’s Devin Lloyd. Both are floating around an early 20s draft position in most mock drafts.
This over/under will likely be determined by Washington’s other cornerback, Kyler Gordon. Most projections have him sliding into the second round given the deep cornerback depth in this year’s class.
Both Andrew Booth and Kaiir Elam should sneak in ahead of Gordon.
Pick: Under 4.5 Pac-12 Players Drafted in the First Round (-155)
Big Ten Conference
Aidan Hutchinson (or Travon Walker) is expected to be the top prize in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Ohio State receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are two of the top wideouts in this year’s class, with both expecting to go among the top 15 on Thursday night.
The second half of the first round will surely be a sweat for the rest of the conference. The Big Ten has a slew of players who are hovering around a first- or second-round selection.
The Big Ten has a boatload of talent set to enter the league this year. With nine players projected around the second half of the first round, I feel confident that they will be able to pull out at least four more draft picks.
Pick: Over 6.5 Big Ten Players Drafted in the First Round
Big 12 Conference
The Big 12 has produced the least first-round talent over the last six years among Power Five conferences. Last season, that was highlighted when the conference didn’t see a single player get drafted in the top 32.
We will likely see that repeated this year, as no one anticipates to hear their name called on the first day.
Baylor safety Jalen Pitre was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and earned All-American honors, but NFL teams are more likely to target Georgia’s Lewis Cine over Pitre for a late first-round safety.
Oklahoma edge rusher Nik Bonitto and Iowa State running back Breece Hall are both likely to go early in the second round. With better options at both positions, the Big 12 is slated to put up another goose egg in the first round.
Pick: Under 0.5 Big 12 Players Drafted in the First Round
Atlantic Coast Conference
The ACC has two projected top-10 picks this year in offensive lineman Ikem Ekwonu and defensive end Jermaine Johnson II.
Despite his “small hands,” Kenny Pickett is projected to be a first-round draft choice. Joining him is Boston College lineman Zion Johnson, who has been flying up draft boards the past few weeks.
For the conference to go over its first-round total, it will need to find one additional player to sneak into the top 32.
The two likeliest prospects are a pair of cornerbacks in Booth and Elam. They’re ranked fourth and fifth at their position in a first round that’s expected to see five cornerbacks drafted.
I’m confident we will hear one, if not both, of the cornerbacks’ names called by Roger Goodell.
Pick: Over 4.5 ACC Players Drafted in First Round
Kyle Remillard’s First-Round Projections by Conference
- SEC: 11
- Big Ten: 7
- ACC: 5
- Pac-12: 4
- Independent: 2
- FCS: 2
- AAC: 1
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