The Air Force Falcons take on the Utah State Aggies in Logan, Utah. Kickoff is set for 9:45 p.m. ET on FS1.
Air Force is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 51 points.
Here’s my Air Force vs. Utah State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 13.
Air Force vs Utah State Prediction
- Air Force vs. Utah State Pick: Air Force -4.5
My Utah State vs. Air Force best bet is on the Falcons spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Air Force vs Utah State Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | +165 |
- Air Force vs Utah State point spread: Air Force -4.5
- Air Force vs Utah State over/under: 51 points
- Air Force vs Utah State moneyline: Air Force -200, Utah State +165
Air Force vs Utah State Preview
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: Encouraging Signs in First Matchup
Air Force was really able to turn it on for the last four games of last season, and the Flyboys looked sharp in their opener against Bucknell to open up this campaign.
While I didn't see as much explosive rushing out of Cade Harris and Kade Frew as I would've liked, the offense looked sharp overall and the offensive line played with the attitude and intensity that was missing for much of last season.
Both quarterbacks — Josh Johnson and Liam Szarka — looked sharp throwing the ball, and the Falcons did have three long pass plays, something this offense really needs in its arsenal.
Defensively, Air Force was in position against Bucknell, which was overmatched when it comes to size and talent. The front seven looked good against the run and the coverage units did well to limit Bucknell quarterback Ralph Rucker IV.
We saw this Air Force defense really overwhelm Bucknell’s offensive line in the trenches, and it was encouraging to see Air Force accumulate six sacks.
I'll be interested to watch how the Falcons perform against Utah State, specifically due to the amount of players the Aggies have out for this one.
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview: Corrections Need to Be Made
Utah State has been very impressive so far this season. The Aggies dominated UTEP at home in their opener and looked sharp last week against Texas A&M.
The Aggies found some offensive success in the second half against A&M, and it'll be key for Utah State to limit the amount of empty possessions accumulated by its offense moving forward.
Utah State punted or turned the ball over on 10 of its 13 possessions, with 10 of those possessions lasting less than two minutes in length. Over time, this could really expose the defense.
Defensively, Utah State was unable to provide a ton of resistance against A&M, as the Aggies racked up 554 yards and 44 points. After the opening series of the first half, Texas A&M spent most of its time in Utah State territory and scored on five of its last six first-half possessions.
This defense has seen a ton of plays against it already this year and situationally, it should be up against it here (the Aggies are playing a third straight week, while Air Force is coming off of a bye).
I'll be interested to see how Utah State competes in the defensive trenches.
Air Force vs Utah State Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm laying the -4.5 with Air Force in this one.
Utah State is pretty banged up and its most recent injury report revealed 18 players are either out for the season or out for this matchup.
Many are depth players, but the Aggies have five out along the offensive line, including starter Trey Andersen. This could be concerning in the second half on both sides of the ball for Utah State.
You generally rotate in seven-to-eight players along the offensive line during a game and many backups can play multiple positions on the line in case of injury. Without depth players being available, this offensive line could wear down early in the second half.
I'll watch to see how Air Force can take advantage by sending pressure and getting in the face of quarterback Bryson Barnes.
Defensively, this is a concern, as Utah State could see 50+ rushing plays against it. Without having key depth players to rotate in on defense, this group could also wear down significantly in the second half.
Air Force is going to pound the rock, primarily between the tackles with the fullback dive. This style will test the Utah State defensive fortitude in the trenches, where I don’t think the Aggies will hold up particularly well.
The spot calls for a well-rested Air Force team to go on the road and grab a conference win. I expect the Flyboys to do that and win this game late in the second half in the trenches.
Pick: Air Force -4.5
