Offense has been on the decline in college football over the last five years. Rule adjustments related to the clock have reduced plays and drives. Naturally, scoring has dipped as a result.
But oddsmakers have adjusted, and totals set above 50 points cashed at a 51.3% clip in 2025. Are we in store for a scoring explosion in Week 1?
Let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Week 1.
Texas State vs Texas Pick
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+31.5 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +2400 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-31.5 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
Overs are all about pace and explosiveness.
Texas State finished 21st in seconds between plays last fall while scoring 36.5 points per game (12th). The Bobcats return star quarterback Brad Jackson and his top receivers Beau Sparks (84/1,200/10) and Chris Dawn Jr. (65/1,007/4).
The line, by G6 standards, has talent and some continuity as well. If they can score 14 points against this Will Muschamp defense, I have faith in Arch Manning and the Longhorns to do the rest.
While UT may not operate at a breakneck pace, its offensive explosiveness was evident down the stretch last season. In the Longhorns' final three games, they averaged 40 points per game while generating 448 yards per game.
Digging deep, though, it was their yards per play that jumped off the page. With Manning at the controls, UT averaged seven yards per play against Arkansas, Texas A&M and Michigan. The Aggies and Wolverines fielded top-25 defenses and were eviscerated.
Texas State, meanwhile, gave up north of four touchdowns per game (29 PPG, 95th). It will struggle to contain a revamped Texas running game powered by Hollywood Smothers, Raleek Brown and Manning when he pulls the ball in the read game.
The Bobcats surrendered 21 runs of at least 20 yards last fall (109th), and they didn’t do enough in the portal to address their leaky run defense.
After a humbling season opener last season, Texas will put up a 50-burger at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium and push this game over the total.
Pick: Over 60.5
UCLA vs Cal Pick
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
You can take UCLA’s offensive stats from last season and toss them in the garbage. The Bruins' new offensive staff arrives from Harrisonburg, Virginia, after leading JMU to the College Football Playoff.
Dean Kennedy, UCLA’s new offensive coordinator, has a fantastic track record working with quarterbacks.
As an assistant quarterback coach at Florida in 2020, Kyle Trask exploded for 43 passing touchdowns in just 12 games. Trask finished fourth in the Heisman race and provided Kennedy with the kind of line item on his resume that would open doors.
As an offensive coordinator, Kennedy created a quarterback-friendly offense at Holy Cross that launched Matthew Sluka into superstardom. Just like Trask, Sluka finished fourth in the Walter Payton Award (FCS Heisman) race as a dynamic dual-threat passer.
His 1,247 rushing yards that season were the most among FCS quarterbacks. This all led to Kennedy’s opportunity at JMU.
The Dukes scored 37.1 points per game (ninth) last fall, and quarterback Alonza Barnett III accounted for 38 total touchdowns despite playing on a surgically repaired right knee.
UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava has the skill set to explode in Kennedy’s offense. He ran for over 500 yards last season, and that number could double in 2026.
In this opener, he’ll be facing a rebuilt Cal defense that lost leading tackler Cade Uluave, who transferred to BYU.
Iamaleava is also surrounded by blue-chip wide receivers and running back Wayne Knight, who followed his coaching staff from Harrisonburg to Westwood after a breakout season that saw him rack up more than 2,000 all-purpose yards.
If Kennedy’s uptempo offense sets the pace early, Cal will have no choice but to match the scoring with a young star of its own. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was sensational at times as a true freshman and finished the season on a real heater.
He led upsets of Louisville and SMU, and the Cal boosters rewarded his play by delivering one of the best transfer portal classes in the ACC.
If JKS maintains his late-season form, Cal will hang around long enough to keep the scoreboard moving in both directions.
My projections call for this total to be set at 60.5, making this my favorite over of Week 1.
Pick: Over 54.5
