The Akron Zips take on the Bowling Green Falcons in Bowling Green, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Bowling Green is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. Akron, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +150 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 total points.
Here’s my Akron vs. Bowling Green prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, November 18.
Akron vs Bowling Green Prediction
- Akron vs. Bowling Green Pick: Bowling Green Team Total Under 25.5
My Bowling Green vs. Akron best bet is on the Falcons to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Akron vs Bowling Green Odds
| Akron Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | +150 |
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | -180 |
- Akron vs Bowling Green Spread: Bowling Green -3.5, Akron +3.5
- Akron vs Bowling Green Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- Akron vs Bowling Green Moneyline: Akron +150, Bowling Green -180
Akron vs Bowling Green College Football Betting Preview
Akron Zips Betting Preview: Fourth-Quarter Comeback Fuels Momentum
Akron tried its best to eliminate rival Kent State from bowl contention in what turned out to be a wild Wagon Wheel rivalry game. The Zips ended up dropping a 42-35 contest in overtime despite a furious fourth-quarter comeback.
The 35 points scored marked back-to-back outings of scoring at least 35 after beating UMass, 44-10, in the previous game. This is the first time the Zips have achieved that since September 2018, and their first time doing so against back-to-back FBS opponents since 2016.
The Akron defense was exposed by Dru DeShields’ 317 yards and five touchdowns, increasing his season total in the latter by more than 25%.
Akron’s run defense bottled the Flashes up for just 57 total yards, but it was 7-on-7 practice through the air. DeShields was pressured just six total times despite throwing behind the nation’s worst pass-blocking unit.
Three passes went for more than 25 yards, topped by an 89-yard explosion by Kent State. The secondary was torched. In total, Kent State scored 42 points on 47 plays from scrimmage. Akron put up 35 points on 95 plays.
When Akron’s defense isn’t causing turnovers, it gets sliced and diced through the air.
On the other side, Zips quarterback Ben Finley had a career day passing, surpassing 400 yards for the first time.
Over 200 of those yards went to Marcel Williams, who made it two straight games with at least 100 yards. Williams is an explosive playmaker who adds more pop to the Zips’ offense than any other player.
But the offensive line is leaky. It allowed 18 pressures to Kent State (Finley took six sacks), 23 to Ball State (five sacks) and 12 to UAB (five sacks). Finley has taken two-plus sacks in five games and four-plus sacks in four games.
Much of it comes down to a bad offensive line, but Finley also takes too many sacks for the pressures surrendered.
Akron still plays with menace. It’s a team with a lot of attitude, and it plays with a chip on its shoulder. Many players are building a transfer resume, while others play to watch their opponents' worlds burn.
Either way, it’s an opportunistic defense. Linebacker Gage Summers seems to be a ball magnet and has multiple touchdowns this season.
In its final game against Bowling Green, Akron’s defense looks to capitalize on an occasionally turnover-prone BG offense.
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Mired in Scoring Malaise
Since shocking Toledo in the Battle of I-75 — a matchup that brought the Falcons to 3-3 on the season — Bowling Green has dropped four straight games. That stretch features no games with more than 21 scored and two games of less than seven total points.
Head coach Eddie George fired his offensive coordinator, but the scoring woes are still very much alive.
BG is on to quarterback No. 4 with starter Drew Pyne in and out of the lineup, athletic backup Lucian Anderson III hurt, and QB3 Baron May (of last year’s punt caper fame) done for the season.
Hunter Najm got the start against Eastern Michigan, completing 11-of-15 passes for 129 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Bowling Green’s postseason aspirations ended last week with that 27-21 loss to two-win Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti. It’s an unfortunate result for the Falcons, considering they finish against Akron and UMass, two bottom-10 teams nationally.
The Falcon defense has fared well. None of their opponents have scored 30 since September (Ohio) — an impressive feat given the offense’s tendency to allow both short fields to opponents and scores by the defense directly.
Bowling Green has forced just one turnover over its last three games. That’s due in part to injuries to the defense (just 10 total players have played in every game) and a declining return on a largely-absent pass rush and green secondary.
Earlier in the season, this was a team that benefited frequently from turnovers being given away, not necessarily from BG’s defense forcing them.
That regression in turnover rate forced BG’s hand to 0-2 in its last two one-score games.
George has this roster competing, which is a testament to the leadership in place in Northwest Ohio. But after being eliminated from bowl contention, effort is worth monitoring.
The Falcons have some work to do this offseason to jump back into MAC contention. After all, it took Scot Loeffler four seasons to build any sort of identity and put BG in a spot to compete in the postseason. It’s a patient athletic department that will give George plenty of time and resources.
But there are still two winnable games on the 2025 season slate.
Akron vs Bowling Green Pick, Betting Analysis
Akron opened a +4.5 underdog on the road this week and was bet down to +3.5. The total has dropped a point at some books after opening at 47.5, but it has mostly stayed put.
Akron’s defense was exposed last week by a pass-heavy Kent State. The signs were there previously (allowing 42 to Ball State, anyone?), but it really came to a head at home in the Wagon Wheel.
Kent State tied its season-high with 42 points (albeit in overtime), a mark only previously achieved against UMass, Sagarin’s 245th-ranked Division-I team.
But to score those 42 points, Kent State needed a passing game. It rushed for just 57 total yards in the effort, with a long of nine yards. It was one-on-one opportunities down the sideline that cost the Zips the game.
Bowling Green doesn't run an offense that features a forward pass. Against Buffalo, Najm averaged an average depth of target of 14.4 yards, which resulted in a 36% completion rate. Against Eastern Michigan, that dropped to 5.4 aDOT with nearly an 80% completion rate.
At 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds, the freshman isn’t exhibiting much of a willingness to fire the ball downfield with any sort of confidence.
So, against my better judgment, I’m trusting Akron’s defense for a second straight week.
This is more of a vote of confidence against one of the nation’s most stagnant and hard-to-watch offenses in Bowling Green. With seven losses on the slate and a fourth–string QB at play (Pyne is now dealing with an ankle injury), I just don’t think this team gets much of anything going for a fifth-straight game.
Bowling Green generates a quality drive on fewer than 27% of its drives, the seventh-worst mark in the nation.
Akron is exceptional at getting off the field on late downs, and Bowling Green finds itself in third-and-medium-to-long often (its 7.3 yards to go on third down is among the 40 worst marks in the country).
Win or lose, I don’t expect Bowling Green to hit its best offensive stride in the past five games this time around.
Pick: Bowling Green Team Total Under 25.5
Akron vs Bowling Green Betting Trends
