Alabama vs Texas Predictions, Picks, Odds: The Spread & Over/Under Bets to Make
Getty Images. Matt Roembke/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): Jase McClellan and Jalen Milroe of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Quinn Ewers and Xavier Worthy of the Texas Longhorns.
Alabama vs Texas Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
By Dan Keegan
One of the most anticipated matchups of the season arrives Saturday night.
A year after these two blue bloods played an instant classic under the blazing late-summer Texas sun, they will meet again in the Tuscaloosa evening.
While this matchup will soon be a conference game, it has all the pomp and circumstance of a headlining nonconference showcase this year.
Hopefully the sequel will live up to the first edition. Texas almost took down the Alabama Death Star last year; it would have taken a great shot, a one-in-a-million effort, and it almost pulled it off. Instead, the force was strong with Bryce Young, who pulled off a miracle escape.
Now, Steve Sarkisian has another chance to prove that he has gone from student to master against his former boss, Nick Saban. But Saban is going to flex all of the might of his empire’s impressive fleet to snuff him out.
Somehow in this analogy, both teams have become the Empire, the dark side. OK, whatever — impartial fans might agree with that. But more importantly, let’s hope that just like with “Empire Strikes Back,” the sequel can be even better than the original.
The Horns roll into town looking to prove that another offseason of hype is actually real this time; they bring a growing array of young, future NFL talent hunting a defining win. Sarkisian will be all the way into his bag of tricks for this one.
The Alabama machine is rolling on like normal, throwing it back to the good 'ol days with a dominant ground game and a sturdy defense.
Quarterback Jalen Milroe looked the part last week against Middle Tennessee State, but this Texas defense is a different caliber of challenger.
We polled our staff to hunt a consensus on such a colossal matchup, and it’s safe to say our team believes that Texas is back — nine out of our 14 experts are taking the points with the Horns. Our view of the total is a little murkier, with a split ballot.
What makes our team feel so confident? Let’s get into the matchups.
Alabama vs Texas Spread
Texas +7
This is it. The game college football fans have had circled on their calendars for weeks and months — and even years for some — is finally here.
Texas travels to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, in what is a titanic clash between the No. 11 Longhorns and No. 3 Crimson Tide.
The Action Network staff has voted on which team to back in this epic matchup, and Texas is the pick.
This opinion by our staff is in line with sharps, who have placed 80% of the total money on the Longhorns to come within a touchdown despite the Longhorns receiving only 40% of the total tickets.
Overall, I'm in line with our staff, our Action Analytics projections and sharps that the Longhorns are the team to back in a contest that has all the makings for an instant classic.
Offensively, I look for both teams to find success.
The Crimson Tide are coming off a 56-7 drubbing of Middle Tennesee in which they posted 6.11 points per scoring opportunity to go with a 67% Passing Down Success Rate.
On the other side, Texas handled what was, in my opinion, a more formidable opponent as it defeated Rice, 37-10. Quarterback Quinn Ewers was mistake-free throwing for three touchdowns and adding another with his legs.
Given the prowess of these offenses, I believe this matchup will come down to which defense can get off the field more consistently.
Ultimately, I think Texas’ defense, led by linebacker Jaylan Ford, will generate enough stops to keep Texas within this number. Overall, the Longhorns rank 36th in Net TARP on the defensive side from a unit that ranked ninth nationally in Points per Opportunity in 2022.
Until Milroe and company can display consistent offensive production against elite-level competition, I'm more than happy to back a Texas offense loaded with talent at the skill positions and a defense with a plethora of experience.
Alabama vs Texas Over/Under
Over 54 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 3 Picks |
Under 54 | 6 Picks |
Split Decision
Our staff is torn on the outcome of this total with no consensus staff play.
Given the lack of data due to the small sample size we have at this point in the season, I think it makes sense to proceed with caution in this nonconference Power 5 matchup.
In the last seven full seasons (2015-19, 21-22) home totals have averaged 48.1 points when SEC teams host the Big 12. I have found that early in the season when we don't have reliable data, most sportsbooks will hang totals that approximate historical conference vs. conference results.
That’s not the case here, as the current market is almost a touchdown higher than what we've seen.
When these two teams met last year in Week 2, the over of 63 was never in play after the contest ended with a combined 39 points scored. However, I wouldn’t put too much faith in a repeat of last year’s contest, which featured abysmal third-down conversion rates by both teams and Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers leaving the game in the first quarter with an injury.
New Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe will be making his prime-time debut as the starting quarterback for the Crimson Tide, but Bryant-Denny Stadium will be a much more hospitable environment for his second career start.
Meanwhile, Ewers should be able to lead his team to a more fruitful performance in this season’s rematch in his second year as the Longhorns' starting quarterback.
There aren't many discernable takeaways from the Week 1 outings for both teams against their Group of Five opponents, but they both showed the ability to score in easy victories.
It's worth noting that Alabama and Texas had 39 and 40 rushing attempts in Week 1, respectively. At this point in the season, it’s hard to tell if both teams will rely heavily on the run game, or if both coaches kept the playbook under wraps as they looked to this Week 2 matchup.
Consistent with our staff’s split decision on this game, the data presents a conflicting picture on how to play this total.
If you're inclined to bet the over, games in Tuscaloosa have gone over the total 54.2% of the time, and it’s easy to envision a situation where the Crimson Tide get rolling at home. Additionally, it's unlikely that we see a repeat of last year’s 39-point affair that ended 24 points under the total.
If the under tickles your fancy, you can look at historical conference data that suggests the current market is too high and should probably be somewhere closer to 50.
Milroe will be facing a tough test in a Texas defense that was vastly improved last season. To counteract this, Saban could go with a run-heavy game plan again to alleviate the pressure on Milroe before the brutal SEC schedule starts.
Either way, our conviction is low on the total, and I would recommend keeping your bet size at one unit or less.
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