App State vs Troy Odds & Pick | 2023 Sun Belt Championship Betting Preview

App State vs Troy Odds & Pick | 2023 Sun Belt Championship Betting Preview article feature image

Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Appalachian State’s DJ VanHook.

App State vs Troy Odds

Saturday, Dec. 2
4 p.m. ET
Troy Odds
-105o / -115u
Appalachian State Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Let's dive into the App State vs. Troy odds and make a pick in our 2023 Sun Belt Championship betting preview on Saturday, Dec. 2.

Troy hosts Appalachian State on Saturday afternoon for the Sun Belt Conference Championship at Veterans Memorial Stadium.

The Trojans finished with the best record in the conference after rattling off nine straight wins to close out the regular season on their way to a 10-2 overall mark.

The Mountaineers also finished the regular season strongly, winning their last five to earn a bid in the Sun Belt title game for the fourth time in the game's six years of existence.

This is the rematch of last season’s matchup that ended on a Hail Mary touchdown with College GameDay in attendance. I expect another great battle between two of the country’s hottest teams.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

App State Mountaineers

After consecutive losses to Coastal Carolina and Old Dominion, many wrote off App State in the Sun Belt.

However, head coach Shawn Clark and his squad turned it all around.

The Mountaineers have been dominant. Since the third quarter of the Southern Miss game on Oct. 28, they've outscored their opponents, 174-80 — and their four full games were against bowl-eligible teams.

App State's most significant adjustment was using its "Star" defensive package more. Before the switch, Clark’s defense allowed 30.9 points per game. After, it allowed only 18.3.

On offense, the star performer is quarterback Joey Aguilar, who leads the Sun Belt and all Group of Five programs with 33 touchdown passes. The only FBS quarterbacks with more this season are LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Oregon's Bo Nix.

Troy Trojans

Troy head coach Jon Sumrall is no stranger to winning, owning a 22-4 record over his two seasons with the program.

The Trojans go about it differently than the Mountaineers, relying on the ground game and a strong defense.

The defense has held eight opponents this season to fewer than 300 yards of total offense, ranking third nationally. They also love to pressure the quarterback, racking up 20 sacks over the last three games, the nation's most during the stretch.

Meanwhile, quarterback Gunnar Watson and running back Kimani Vidal lead the offense. They're just the third Troy duo to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards, respectively, in a season in program history.

Vidal holds all three school records for rushing yards — the single-season, single-game and career marks. He’ll need another big game in the Sun Belt Championship if the Trojans want to go back-to-back.

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Appalachian State vs Troy

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Appalachian State and Troy match up statistically:

Appalachian State Offense vs Troy Defense
Rush Success7720
Line Yards3519
Pass Success1313
Finishing Drives609
Quality Drives2210
Troy Offense vs Appalachian State Defense
Rush Success10893
Line Yards84121
Pass Success7046
Finishing Drives8013
Quality Drives3948
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling4517
PFF Coverage2425
Special Teams SP+7.19
Middle 888
Seconds per Play25.7 (38)27.8 (85)
Rush Rate53.0% (63)51.9% (88)

Appalachian State vs Troy

Betting Pick & Prediction

If you're looking at full-season metrics, this line would seem correct. But you have to factor in Appalachian State's recent improvements.

So, my best bet is to back App State and take the points at +4.5 or better.

The key to the game is whether or not the Mountaineers’ offensive line can give Aguilar enough time to carve up the Troy secondary.

I think they can do just that.

Most of the Trojans’ defensive Havoc comes from the front seven, but App State ranks in the top 10 among the Group of Five in Havoc Allowed against opposing defensive lines.

Yes, Troy’s numbers against the pass are excellent. However, this unit hasn’t faced many competent passing attacks.

Texas State was an opposing offense that could throw the ball, and it outgained and finished with more first downs than the Trojans in their matchup. The Bobcats finished with a -4 in turnover margin to cause that loss.

Six is too many points. I bet the 'Neers will keep it close in the Sun Belt Championship game.

Pick: Appalachian State +6 (Play to +4.5)

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