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The Rice Owls take on the Fresno State Bulldogs in Fresno, CA. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET on The CW.
Fresno State is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 44.5 points.
Here’s my Rice vs. Fresno State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026.
Rice vs Fresno State Prediction
- Rice vs. Fresno State Pick: Fresno State -13.5
My Fresno State vs. Rice best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Rice vs Fresno State Odds
| Rice Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | +410 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | -550 |
- Rice vs Fresno State point spread: Rice +13.5 (-110), Fresno State -13.5 (-110)
- Rice vs Fresno State over/under: 44.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Rice vs Fresno State moneyline: Rice +410, Fresno State -550
Rice vs Fresno State College Football Preview
Rice Owls Betting Preview: Not Tough Enough
Rice has struggled to gain a lot of traction in the second year in the Scott Abell “gun-option” system, as the Owls lack the potency and explosiveness to regularly threaten scoring drives and the defense isn't tough enough to stop its opponents.
The turnovers against Notre Dame kept Rice from settling into that game, but the lack of a downfield passing threat or a ball carrier who can stretch the field makes situational execution necessary for the Owls to move the football.
Rice has only converted 3-of-22 third-down attempts against FBS competition this season, and the offense registers explosive, chunk plays at a rate of 131st nationally.
Quarterback Jacurri Brown has thrown for just 203 yards in three games, and the ground attack isn't potent enough to regularly deliver methodical scoring drives.
The Rice defense was solid enough to stifle the Houston Baptist offense and was clearly no match for Notre Dame in Week 2.
Last week, there were times where the Owls looked like they would be able to force the issue against Western Michigan, but the Broncos were able to execute down the stretch and cash in while in the red zone late in the game.
Rice lacks size and quickness up front, so the defensive scheme relies on sound fundamentals. When key assignments are missed, the defense struggles to get opponents off the field, creating scenarios where the Owls are trailing and playing from behind.
This creates issues, as the offense isn't equipped to score quickly in most cases.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Defense Is Key to Their Success
Fresno State is a much better team than it showed in the opener against USC, and after back-to-back performances where the defense has dominated, I think Fresno is about to go on a serious season-long run.
With winnable games against Rice and Washington State coming up, Fresno State could come into the showdown with Boise State 4-1, with the winner having serious inside footing in the Pac-12.
The ball-control style of the offense succeeded against both Sacramento State and San Jose State last week, and quarterback Jayden Mandal has also been efficient.
Mandal isn't asked to do a lot in this system, but he did run the ball well against the Spartans on the road, and he threw some nice passes downfield.
Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke continue to split the running back duties, with Mandal also a threat to run when plays break down.
The receiver group is sure-handed, and Josiah Freeman and Ezekiel Avit are deep threats that give this offense a chance to register explosive plays.
It's not always a fun watch, but the offense does exactly what it's asked to do more often than not.
The defense is what makes this team sink or swim, and Nick Benedetto has this unit running really well right now. The Bulldogs overwhelmed Sacramento State at home a couple of weeks ago, and this group benefitted from four turnovers forced against San Jose State last week.
The run-stopping ability of this defense has remained strong, as Fresno State is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry all season, and out of the 103 rushing attempts faced, just one has surpassed 20 yards.
The secondary is efficient, and this group will provide issues for the Rice offense on Saturday.
Rice vs Fresno State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Fresno State listed as a 12.5-point favorite with the total set at 44.5. Some money has come in on Fresno State, ticking this line up to -13.5, and I'm willing to lay the number with the Bulldogs.
Rice doesn't have enough explosiveness out of the offense to manufacture the quick-strike scoring drives needed to remain in a game like this if it trails at any point.
Brown is relied upon far too frequently in the run game, and Tyvonn Byars and D’Andre Hardeman Jr. don't have the ability to generate the explosives within the confines of this system.
Rice will struggle on first and second down to move the football, and the Owls have been terrible on third down the last two weeks. Look for quick possessions, especially early in this game, where Rice will have to punt back to Fresno State with an inability to flip the field.
Fresno State registered a decent number of explosive plays against Sacramento State at home, and the Rice defense hasn't been efficient on early downs in getting teams behind the chains.
I expect Fresno State to be in a favorable down-and-distance situation on second and third down, and for the Bulldogs to break through with several explosives in this game.
Rice has a poor pass-coverage unit, and the secondary can be beaten over the top. Western Michigan was never going to exploit this weakness, but Fresno State receivers will have opportunities to win 1:1 battles and register catches downfield.
This advantage was a major contributor to Fresno State breaking open its last game against Sacramento State, and I expect we'll see the pass explosives against Rice.
The Bulldogs are the better team here, and it's not particularly close. The system Rice runs is going to struggle against the Fresno State defense, and I trust the stop unit of the Bulldogs to thwart what Rice wants to do offensively.
This could end up being an ugly watch, with Rice struggling badly on the road to put together any drives. Ultimately, a special teams return, turnover or explosive play will break this game open, and Fresno State will win handily.
Lay the number here.
Pick: Fresno State -13.5 (-110, DraftKings)
