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The evening will feature four all-ranked matchups, including Texas A&M vs. LSU, but I'm looking elsewhere for my Week 4 college football evening spots.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 4, here's the full piece. This is the third spots piece that I've completed this season. So, here's my college football predictions for Week 4.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 15-7-1 (68.2%)
- Overall: 238-185-4 (56.3%)
College Football Predictions, Week 4 Picks for Evening Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5 p.m. | Wisconsin +10.5 |
  | 5 p.m. | Bowling Green +17.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Utah State -2.5 |
  | 9 p.m. | Missouri State +35 |
Wisconsin +10.5 at Penn State
5 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
I think this is a perfect spot to fade Penn State as a double-digit favorite. The Nittany Lions have played three scrimmages to start the season against Buffalo, Temple and Marshall.
The opener against Marshall looked very impressive at the time, but the Herd have been atrocious in the two games since and should've lost to both Missouri State and Middle Tennessee. So, the shine on that performance has certainly faded.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin looked much improved against one of the national title favorites in Notre Dame on a neutral field. That was much closer than the final score indicated and really got away from the Badgers due to a pick-six and a ref-gifted touchdown on a kick return fumble.
The Badgers defense is much more athletic on the back end, and they have some real size up front to slow down the Penn State rushing attack without committing too many bodies to the box.
Additionally, these two teams are trending in opposite directions health-wise. Penn State has a CVS receipt length of injuries heading into this week, with many coming on the defensive side of the ball.
However, the most important loss will be on offense with star wide receiver Koby Howard (who leads Penn State in receiving by a wide margin) expected to miss an extended period of time. That's a massive loss for the nation's leader in yards per catch among qualified receivers.
He's a walking explosive and opens up the rest of the offense for the Nittany Lions. Without him, this offense becomes much easier to contain, especially since quarterback Rocco Becht has always been an elite deep-ball thrower.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin should finally have a fully healthy offensive line, and a couple of its skill-position contributors are trending up health-wise.
I've also been impressed with Colton Joseph whenever he steps up in class, having faced arguably the nation's best defense last year in Indiana (on the road) and this year vs. Notre Dame on a neutral field.
He won't be intimidated by the stage or opponent.
He can also use his legs to extend drives in what should be a lower-scoring affair, which definitely makes the double-digit dog a bit more appealing.
Give me the fighting Fickells to keep this close.
On, Wisconsin!
Wisconsin vs. Penn State Trend
Matt Campbell has been one of the most profitable coaches as an underdog in his career at 37-23 ATS (61.7%), but he's perfectly average as a favorite vs. FBS foes at 49-49-3 ATS. Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell has also fared better in the underdog role.
Pick: Wisconsin +10.5 (Play to +10)
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Bowling Green +17.5 vs. USF
5 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
First, I would like to apologize for the Bowling Green bet last week. Secondly, I'd like to apologize in advance for the Bowling Green bet this week.
The Falcons are atrocious in every aspect and also lost their best cornerback to a season-ending injury ahead of the Iowa State game. With that said, I plugged my nose and took the points once again in a game I project under 17 in a spot I fancy.
BG did get blown out on the road against Nebraska and Iowa State, so this will at least present a step down in class for a team that should come out with a desperate effort following an 0-3 start.
As long as Eddie George's group can avoid getting too far behind, they profile as a very appealing underdog with their offensive style.
Additionally, this is a fade of a South Florida team that I believe the market is too high on.
The Bulls should have lost their opener vs. FIU in a game they got outgained, 381-208, but benefited from a +3 turnover margin and four FIU failed fourth-down attempts.
They also needed a miraculous comeback to win on a last-second fourth-down go route against Army in a game they trailed, 24-14, with just a few minutes remaining. USF could easily be sitting at 1-2 on the season.
The Bulls are also playing much slower this year (which helps limit the number of possessions for the large home pup), and I'm not sure how focused they'll be under a first-time head coach for a road game at winless BG before conference play kicks into full gear. I could see the Bulls coming out very flat.
Give me the Falcons (reluctantly) in the ultimate buy-low spot, while selling a fortunate Bulls bunch.
Ay Ziggy Zoomba!
Bowling Green vs. USF Trend
Bowling Green has gone 7-5 ATS as a home dog in nonconference play since 2005 and has pulled off a number of upsets, including last year vs. Liberty.
The Falcons also beat Marshall as 17-point underdogs in 2022, nearly beat South Alabama as 14.5-point underdogs in 2021 and had previous upsets over Marshall (another time), Indiana and Troy.
Pick: Bowling Green +17.5 or Better
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Utah State -2.5 vs. Troy
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
You know I had to get a game on CBS Sports Network in here.
This was one of the first bets I placed this week, and the handicap isn't rocket science.
For starters, I make it Utah State -3.5. It's also a great spot for the Aggies, who have played one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country to date compared to Troy, which has a strength of schedule barely inside the top 100, per Sagarin.
Also, don't get too down on the Aggies for that loss against Idaho State to open the season, as the boys from Pocatello are in the elite tier amongst FCS programs this season.
Plus, Utah State finished with a 407-241 yards advantage but couldn't overcome a -4 turnover margin.
Head coach Bronco Mendenhall was also tinkering with the depth chart, which has since settled a bit. The Aggies then almost upset Washington as near four-touchdown underdogs and then lost at Utah. There's no shame in either result.
From a matchup perspective, the Utah State run defense (top-20 in Success Rate) has looked very stout, holding Washington and Idaho State to a combined 196 yards on 63 carries (3.1 average).
That should help shut off a Troy offense that has extreme limitations through the air and ranks bottom-15 in Passing Success Rate.
While Utah State should come out hungry for its first win of the season, this is also a tricky spot for Troy after an all-out (impressive) effort at Missouri.
The Trojans now head out west for a second straight road game at altitude to take on winless Utah State prior to the start of league play. This screams flat effort from the men of Troy.
Hail the Utah State Aggies!
Utah State vs. Troy
Since 2005, Utah State has gone 32-15 ATS (68.1%) as a home favorite vs. FBS foes, covering by nearly a field goal per game on average.
Pick: Utah State -2.5 (Play to -3)
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Missouri State +35 at SMU
9 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
This Missouri State offense has more juice than I had expected, especially this early in the season.
The Bears put up over 500 total yards last week against Marshall in a game they arguably should have won (had first-and-goal in the final minutes, going for the win).
New quarterback Skyler Locklear actually looks fairly comfortable operating a brand-new scheme after coming in from UTEP. As a result, I've upgraded them since the start of the year.
With that said, this is more of a fade of SMU in a spot I've talked about a number of times in this piece in the past: a 30-plus point favorite coming off a loss in a ranked matchup.
The common sentiment is that team will bounce back and come out angry, wanting to take out their frustrations on an inferior opponent. However, more often than not, those teams tend to come out super flat (see the trend below).
But maybe even more importantly, I don't think Rhett Lashlee will want to embarrass Missouri State head coach Casey Woods, who had been his offensive coordinator at SMU from 2022-25. Those two are great friends (whose relationship dates back to the Auburn national title staff in 2010) and have referred to each other as "like brothers."
As a result, Lashlee will likely take his foot off the gas earlier than usual with a big lead, and I highly doubt he'd punch in any late unnecessary scores.
Plus, Woods knows quarterback Kevin Jennings and this offensive scheme/personnel as well as anybody, so I'm assuming they'll at least have a good scout even if they'll be extremely outmatched athletically.
No State like Mo State!
Missouri State vs. SMU Trend
Teams favored by 30-plus against FBS foes following a loss in a ranked matchup have gone just 11-28 ATS (28.2%) since 2005, failing to cover by 7 points per game.
Pick: Missouri State +35 or Better
