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The Missouri State Bears take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
SMU is favored by -34.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -12500. The total is set at 59.5 points.
Here’s my Missouri State vs. SMU prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026.
Missouri State vs SMU Prediction
- Missouri State vs. SMU Pick: Missouri State +35 or Better
My SMU vs. Missouri State best bet is on the Bears to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri State vs SMU Odds
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +3000 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -12500 |
- Missouri State vs SMU point spread: SMU -34.5 (-110), Missouri State +34.5 (-110)
- Missouri State vs SMU over/under: 59.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Missouri State vs SMU moneyline: Missouri State +3000, SMU -12500
Missouri State vs SMU Pick, Betting Analysis
This Missouri State offense has more juice than I had expected, especially this early in the season.
The Bears put up over 500 total yards last week against Marshall in a game they arguably should have won (had first-and-goal in the final minutes, going for the win).
New quarterback Skyler Locklear actually looks fairly comfortable operating a brand-new scheme after coming in from UTEP. As a result, I've upgraded them since the start of the year.
With that said, this is more of a fade of SMU in a spot I've talked about a number of times in this piece in the past: a 30-plus point favorite coming off a loss in a ranked matchup.
The common sentiment is that the team will bounce back and come out angry, wanting to take out their frustrations on an inferior opponent. However, more often than not, those teams tend to come out super flat (see the trend below).
But maybe even more importantly, I don't think Rhett Lashlee will want to embarrass Missouri State head coach Casey Woods, who had been his offensive coordinator at SMU from 2022-25. Those two are great friends (whose relationship dates back to the Auburn national title staff in 2010) and have referred to each other as "like brothers."
As a result, Lashlee will likely take his foot off the gas earlier than usual with a big lead, and I highly doubt he'd punch in any late unnecessary scores.
Plus, Woods knows quarterback Kevin Jennings and this offensive scheme/personnel as well as anybody, so I'm assuming they'll at least have a good scout even if they'll be extremely outmatched athletically.
Pick: Missouri State +35 or Better
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