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The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks take on the Montana State Bobcats in Bozeman, MT. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Montana State is favored by 19.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1600. The total is set at 56.5 points.
Here’s my Northern Arizona vs Montana State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026.
Northern Arizona vs Montana State Prediction
- Northern Arizona vs Montana State Pick: Montana State -19.5 (MSU Team Total Over 37.5 When Available)
My Northern Arizona vs Montana State best bet is on the Bobcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Northern Arizona vs Montana State Odds
| Northern Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -106 | 56.5 -115o / -111u | +750 |
| Montana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -120 | 56.5 -115o / -111u | -1600 |
- Northern Arizona vs Montana State point spread: Northern Arizona +19.5 (-106), Montana State -19.5 (-120)
- Northern Arizona vs Montana State over/under: 56.5 (-115o / -111u)
- Northern Arizona vs Montana State moneyline: Northern Arizona +750, Montana State -1600
Northern Arizona vs Montana State College Football Preview
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Northern Arizona has needed to reload around quarterback Ty Pennington, who's solidified himself as one of the premier quarterbacks in the Big Sky Conference and is now in his third season as the starter in Flagstaff.
A new receiver cast features Myseth Currie, Joey Stout and Jeter Purdy, who each have had big games already for the Lumberjacks.
The ground attack has given this offense more balance, with Quran Gossett leading the team in rushing with 297 yards. Also, the emergence of sophomore Kenveon Stone gives this group nice options in the backfield.
The offensive line was the unit in question, as all five starters from last season were replaced heading into 2026. As expected, there have been some inconsistencies in the line's play through four weeks.
Pennington has been sacked seven times, and 25 tackles-for-loss have been surrendered. Pennington has faced and evaded pressure regularly, but there's a chance this line gets overwhelmed on the road against the Montana State defensive front.
The Northern Arizona defense was replacing nine starters from last season’s team that really struggled against the premier offensive teams in the Big Sky.
This year’s version of the stop-unit appears headed for a similar fate. The Lumberjacks have surrendered 455 yards per game, and the coverage unit has been torched every week by competent passing attacks.
The front saw its top six contributors from last season depart, and Northern Arizona is really going to struggle to get pressure on Montana State quarterback Justin Lamson.
The defense is one of the worst in the Big Sky, but the Lumberjacks have played three finesse teams that have turned the ball over 12 times, allowing them to continue winning games.
I'll be stunned if the turnover luck continues in Bozeman, MT, on Saturday.
Montana State Bobcats
The Bobcats continue to answer the challenges put in their way, although last week’s letdown spot against overmatched Central Connecticut State nearly resulted in disaster.
The Bobs were down 21-7 early in the third quarter, and fans of the 40-point favorites were stunned.
Montana State did end up figuring out the Central Connecticut State defense and scored on four straight possessions to take a double-digit lead, but the performance was certainly not championship-level.
Head coach Brent Vigen and this Montana State team have gone through stretches where the performance has been subpar against overmatched foes, and it usually seems to happen immediately before Big Sky play gets rolling.
This is still the best team in the FCS, and I would expect a stronger performance from the host Bobcats on Saturday night.
The offense is really good, and there are weapons all over the field. Lamson is completing 75% of his passes with a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he has plenty of dangerous pass-receiving options.
Adam Jones is a versatile back who runs with power but also catches the ball well out of the backfield. Dane Steel and Taco Dowler have combined for 550 pass receiving yards and five touchdowns, and Dowler is always dangerous as a return specialist.
The offensive line continues to play good football, so I expect this team to score a lot of points on Saturday against the Northern Arizona defense.
The defense has battled injury at key positions and is down 3-4 starters again this week.
Montana State isn't as tough against the run as we've become accustomed to, and this defense has failed to shut down lesser opponents in two of the last three weeks, with Butler and Central Connecticut State combining for 54 points against it.
Montana State can ratchet it up on this side of the ball at any time, and schematically the Bobcats match up well with Northern Arizona. This game will be a good indicator of what the rest of the Big Sky season will look like for Montana State.
Northern Arizona vs Montana State Pick, Betting Analysis
The line on this game has bounced around, with soft openers listing Montana State as 21.5-point favorites. Action caused the line to bounce between -17.5 and -22.5 before settling at -19.5, where it is now. The total is set at 56.5.
I'm going to lay the number with Montana State at home and will also seek to play the Bobcats team total over (projected at 37.5).
Northern Arizona isn't going to be able to accumulate stops in this game, and the Lumberjacks are going to struggle surrendering big plays.
This defense surrendered 606 yards against Incarnate Word a couple of weeks ago and struggled last week with the Utah Tech offense, which is the worst in the Big Sky.
Montana State has too many explosive weapons on the outside, and the explosiveness in the passing game will show up against a weak Lumberjack secondary.
Northern Arizona has feasted on finesse teams so far this season, but Montana State will be able to provide pressure on Pennington while stifling the run game against a weak Lumberjack offensive line.
Northern Arizona struggles on third down, converting just 13-of-49 attempts, despite playing weaker FCS teams.
Getting Northern Arizona into "3rd-and-medium” or worse will be a common occurrence for this Montana State defense, and the Lumberjacks haven't been efficient enough to sustain drives and consistently see scoring opportunities.
Northern Arizona has rotated three punters this season, and none of them are considered outstanding. Montana State has elite FCS-level special teams, and Dowler is a threat to score every time he fields a punt.
With a net punting average of just 38 yards, quick possessions will spell trouble for Northern Arizona, which will have to defend short fields the other way, with the potential of game-changing punt returns really setting up the Bobcats' offense.
Dowler, Steel, Jones and Carter Dahlke are too explosive for Northern Arizona to handle. The ground game is going to bludgeon Northern Arizona in the second half, and I don't expect the Lumberjacks to get Montana State off the field.
The Bobcats pull away early in the second half of this one, in a game they should score 45 points in.
Pick: Montana State -19.5 (MSU Team Total Over 37.5 When Available)
