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We have three juicy all-ranked matchups — Oregon vs. USC, Missouri vs. Mississippi State and Texas A&M vs. LSU — on Saturday night of college football's Week 4.
However, there's value to be had elsewhere during this window, and that's where our staff will mainly focus (besides the Oregon-USC tilt) their four best bets for the Week 4 evening slate.
So, dive in below for college football predictions and picks, including our Saturday night best bets for September 26.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
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College Football Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Troy vs. Utah State
By Stuckey
You know I had to get a game on CBS Sports Network in here.
This was one of the first bets I placed this week, and the handicap isn't rocket science.
For starters, I make it Utah State -3.5. It's also a great spot for the Aggies, who have played one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country to date compared to Troy, which has a strength of schedule barely inside the top 100, per Sagarin.
Also, don't get too down on the Aggies for that loss against Idaho State to open the season, as the boys from Pocatello are in the elite tier amongst FCS programs this season.
Plus, Utah State finished with a 407-241 yards advantage but couldn't overcome a -4 turnover margin.
Head coach Bronco Mendenhall was also tinkering with the depth chart, which has since settled a bit. The Aggies then almost upset Washington as near four-touchdown underdogs and then lost at Utah. There's no shame in either result.
From a matchup perspective, the Utah State run defense (top-20 in Success Rate) has looked very stout, holding Washington and Idaho State to a combined 196 yards on 63 carries (3.1 average).
That should help shut off a Troy offense that has extreme limitations through the air and ranks bottom-15 in Passing Success Rate.
While Utah State should come out hungry for its first win of the season, this is also a tricky spot for Troy after an all-out (impressive) effort at Missouri.
The Trojans now head out west for a second straight road game at altitude to take on winless Utah State prior to the start of league play. This screams flat effort from the men of Troy.
Hail the Utah State Aggies!
Pick: Utah State -3
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Oregon vs. USC
The biggest question for Oregon is whether an 84-0 victory over an FCS school is enough to get every player on the same page.
Oklahoma State linebackers identified that Dante Moore was tipping rush or pass plays with his footwork, an issue that was resolved before the Portland State game.
If the Ducks return to full explosiveness on the offensive side of the football, the Trojans' defense could have a long Saturday.
USC's defense has regressed under coordinator Gary Patterson, falling outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and Pass EPA allowed. The Trojans also sit in the bottom 20 in Havoc, a metric of tackles for loss, sacks, forced fumbles and passes defensed.
Through four games, the Trojans have generated just seven pass breakups. If those numbers hold true, Moore could have a big passing day with proper fundamentals pre-snap.
Both Evan Stewart and Dakorien Moore have been elite at 2.5 yards per route run, and the loss of Jeremiah McClellan to a broken foot opens the door for a number of blue-chip freshman wide receivers.
USC is sure to get its offensive shots in with quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has already posted a 12:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Despite the big touchdown tally, the senior has seen a dip in big-time throw rate, even with less pressure and fewer drops. Maiava has his worst Success Rate and EPA against quarters coverage, the primary zone look from the Ducks defense this season.
Action Network projects Oregon as a 5.5-point favorite in the Coliseum in Week 4.
There are a number of indicators pointing up, primarily a fix to Moore’s footwork that could hide offensive plays.
The Ducks' defense has also been one of the best in the country at limiting explosive passes, an element USC football has relied on to create scoring opportunities.
With the Trojans lacking in rush explosives and Oregon limiting pass explosives, look for the Ducks to be back in the Big Ten — and potentially the national title — picture.
Pick: Oregon -3
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Oregon State vs. UTEP
By Kyle Hunter
Quietly, JaMarcus Shephard is doing some tremendous work with the Oregon State Beavers.
This program was absolutely dead at the end of last season, and the job Shephard is doing in Corvallis will have a lot of bigger schools looking at him in the near future.
Oregon State has decided to let it fly on offense. The Beavers are throwing the ball on 70.7% of their offensive snaps this season. That’s easily first nationally in percentage of plays that are a pass. Arkansas ranks second at just 66.9%.
The Beavers have found a really good quarterback in Braden Atkinson. Atkinson has an average depth of target of 11.9 yards, so they're going deep down the field. He has seven big-time throws and just two turnover-worthy plays so far this season.
Oregon State put up 6.6 yards per play and 472 yards on an excellent Texas Tech defense. It also scored 20 points and had 402 yards against a really good Houston defense while also piling up 52 points and 510 yards against Montana last week.
What does the UTEP pass defense look like? That’s the most important question when breaking this one down. The Miners sit dead last at 138th in the nation in Passing Success Rate allowed. UTEP also ranks 136th in PPA/Pass allowed. The Miners are 128th in QBR allowed as well.
Atkinson and the Oregon State offense play very quickly, and I expect them to pile up the points against this poor secondary.
Pick: Oregon State Team Total Over 34.5
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