Arizona State vs UCLA Odds & Pick: Bet the Under in Pac-12 Battle

Arizona State vs UCLA Odds & Pick: Bet the Under in Pac-12 Battle article feature image

Pictured: Laiatu Latu. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)

Arizona State vs UCLA Odds

Saturday, Nov. 11
9 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network
Arizona State Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

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In the last season of the Pac-12 as we know it, the Arizona State Sun Devils travel to the Rose Bowl for a conference matchup with the UCLA Bruins.

Both teams enter after bad road losses. ASU was steamrolled 55-3 by Utah, while UCLA lost at Arizona 27-10.

Both teams should be fired up to get back in the win column, so let's look at the Arizona State vs. UCLA odds and make a pick.

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Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State doesn't enter this game in a particularly great position.

ASU has been pounded with offensive line injuries all season and was forced to give true freshman Sean Na'a his first career start at left tackle against Utah.

The Sun Devils were already down to third-string quarterback Trenton Bourguet against the Utes, but then he injured his leg and missed most of the rest of the game. With starter Jaden Rashada and backup Drew Pyne already out, ASU turned to fourth-stringer Jacob Conover and … well, he played like a fourth stringer (5-of-22 for 41 yards and an interception).

If Arizona State has any hope of beating UCLA, it needs Bourguet to play. Full stop. Maybe Conover looks better with a full week of practice, but he was terrible against Utah and the Bruins' defense isn't much different.

With all of the players filtering in and out of ASU's lineup, the Sun Devils are a dreadful 125th in passing success rate and 96th in rushing success rate.

However, the Sun Devils' defense has been a bright spot. Ranking 45th in pass success rate allowed, ASU has surrendered more than 30 points in just two games.

Arizona State can get after the passer as it has 22 sacks and its 2.8 sacks per game are tied for 25th in the country.

UCLA Bruins

Speaking of defense, UCLA's defense has been outstanding.

Under new defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn, the Bruins are making life hell for opposing offenses. As good as ASU's 2.8 sacks per game is, UCLA averages 3.8 sacks per game and has 34 on the season! Bruins defensive lineman Laiatu Latu is fourth in the country with 11 sacks and Gabriel Murphy is second on the team with five sacks.

UCLA's defense excels beyond just rushing the passer. It is fourth in defensive EPA, ninth in havoc rate, eighth in quality drives allowed and is only giving up 16.3 points per game (and that is factoring in Dante Moore's three pick-sixes). To put it simply, it is very difficult to score on this defense, especially for a bad offense like Arizona State.

The Bruins have been fairly uneven on the other side of the ball. UCLA's run game averages 4.9 yards per carry and is 30th in rushing success rate. Carson Steele headlines the backfield with 712 rushing yards and six touchdowns and is followed by T.J. Harden (496 yards and five scores).

However, UCLA can't seem to get its passing game straightened out. The Bruins have rotated between Moore and Ethan Garbers for most of the season, though Collin Schlee also got some decent action against Arizona last weekend. In all, the three of them have combined to throw for 2,152 yards, 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

That level of quarterback play probably won't hurt UCLA against ASU, but it has still limited this team's potential.

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Arizona State vs UCLA

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona State and UCLA match up statistically:

Arizona State Offense vs. UCLA Defense
Rush Success9635
Line Yards7515
Pass Success12536
Finishing Drives11310
Quality Drives1138
UCLA Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Rush Success3079
Line Yards20114
Pass Success9245
Finishing Drives10693
Quality Drives47125
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling2419
PFF Coverage9710
Special Teams SP+119126
Middle 810775
Seconds per Play26.3 (57)24.1 (16)
Rush Rate46.2% (114)56.9% (54)

Arizona State vs UCLA

Betting Pick & Prediction

The betting markets are favoring the Bruins by 18 or 18.5 points, and while I understand why they are such a big favorite, it's just too many points. UCLA's offense is untrustworthy and Arizona State's 55-3 loss to Utah is an outlier as the Sun Devils have been competitive in all of their other Pac-12 games.

The wager I love in this matchup is Under 44.5 points. The Bruins are fully capable of holding ASU to around 10 points and the Sun Devils' defense is just good enough to force a few stops and limit UCLA to 27 or so points. Plus, ASU will struggle to move the ball even more if Conover plays.

These teams have played in some shootouts over the years, but this won't be one of those. Take the under in Pasadena.

Pick: Under 44.5 (Play to 44)

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