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The Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in Lafayette, Louisiana, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Louisiana is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. The total is set at 47.5 points.
Here’s my Arkansas State vs. Louisiana prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3.
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Prediction
- Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Pick: Louisiana -6.5 (-118)
My Louisiana vs. Arkansas State best bet is on the Cajuns to cover at home as a one-score favorite. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Odds
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -104 | 47.5 -114o / -106u | +210 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -118 | 47.5 -114o / -106u | -260 |
- Arkansas State vs Louisiana point spread: Louisiana -6.5 (-118), Arkansas State +6.5 (-104)
- Arkansas State vs Louisiana over/under: 47.5 (-114o / -106u)
- Arkansas State vs Louisiana moneyline: Arkansas State +210, Louisiana -260
Arkansas State vs Louisiana College Football Preview
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview
Arkansas State built the whole plane out of Trey Owens. The 6-foot-5 Texas transfer has attempted every pass for the Red Wolves this season and leads the team with 156 rushing yards on just 16 carries (six of which have gone 10-plus yards).
He's been exceptional as both a scrambler and a designed runner, splitting his yardage about 50-50 between the two scenarios.
Around Owens are low-volume but high-explosion players. Chauncy Cobb has been a great run-after-catch receiver (9.2 yards after the catch), and Hunter Summers has over 200 yards as a largely downfield target.
There's little pop in the run game outside Owens. In fact, 22% of the top three running backs' total yardage comes on two carries.
Arkansas State's offensive line has been serviceable to even good at times, but the team doesn't generate enough red zone drives to really threaten offensively.
The defense is just a mess. The front seven doesn't get enough push in the run game (it ranks 109th in Success Rate) and the secondary is leaky, allowing the sixth-most yards per dropback in the country (9.76).
The cast of opposing quarterbacks includes Marcus Stokes (Memphis, a good QB), Jaden Craig (TCU, aggressive downfield, but inconsistent-to-bad), and Rickie Collins (Kennesaw State, poor). Not exactly a murderer's row of passing games.
Thanks to a friendly schedule that still includes Southern Miss, Georgia State and ULM, Arkansas State is in the mix to make a bowl game despite finishing outside the top 100 nationally in power rating.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Betting Preview
A year after finishing with some of the most wild inconsistency on defense, Louisiana is off to a much improved start. From last year's No. 93 points per drive defense, Jim Salgado has seen an early Year 2 bump with the No. 15 EPA per play defense, adjusted for opponent strength.
Much of that improvement can be credited to a nasty front four led by defensive ends Lance and Ashley Williams (four sacks combined).
The defense has eight takeaways on the season, bolstered by four-takeaway afternoons against UAB and Lamar; those 12 takeaways ranks 12th nationally. The issue is the offense gives the ball right back. In a 34-7 win over Lamar, QB Lunch Winfield tossed two interceptions and backup Daniel Beale threw another.
In fact, Winfield — last year, the sophomore had some pretty fun moments and was a good dual-threat QB–has been terrible.
His season-high in yardage came at USC, where he threw for 212 yards; in his other three games, Winfield hasn't cracked 200 despite 89 attempts on the year.
He's a low-risk but low-ceiling passer with a receiving corps that's spent the year banged up. Top receiver Shelton Sampson might return this week after hyperextending his knee in Week 1.
This is a run-focused team with real pop from Winfield (six rushing touchdowns). But the concern with the approach is that Winfield may not be able to push the ball downfield when needed should Louisiana play from behind.
To see the offense's limitations, see the UAB game where the Cajuns sputtered for zero second-half points.
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Pick, Betting Analysis
Louisiana took the bulk of the early movement, opening up at -4 and being bet off it immediately to -6.5. The total saw movement to the under, being bet down from 49.5 to 47.5 (47 is the resistance point).
Keep an eye on the weather, as thunderstorms are expected all day Saturday, with odds increasing as the day moves along. Lightning is the No. 1 reason for delays in college football, and it appears Lafayette may be under the gun Saturday.
Delays often stall offenses and create Havoc on game flow. But when a team has a successful run game, it's easier to get back on track and move the football than it is for teams who are reliant on the throw game. Arkansas State is a bottom-20 defense nationally with a malleable defensive front and poor tackling.
Louisiana, meanwhile, has fielded a terrific defense that's been dialed in on the run game (32nd in Rushing Success Rate) and has a high takeaway rate. Owens already has four thrown interceptions on five turnover-worthy throws.
Expect ample QB run opportunities from both teams. Louisiana has the marked advantage in that category on both sides of the ball. Since 2016, the Ragin' Cajuns are 44-17 at home (2-0 this year) — one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.
Pick: Louisiana -6.5 or Better (-118)
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Betting Trends
