Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 8 college football projections
Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week’s previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.
If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 8:
|Oct 19||ULL||Arkansas St.||ARST -13.5|
|Oct 19||Memphis||Houston||HOU -3.5|
|Oct 20||Marshall||Middle Tenn.||MTSU -1|
|Oct 20||Air Force||Nevada||NEV +12|
|Oct 20||Colorado State||New Mexico||UNM +7.5|
|Oct 20||Western Kentucky||Old Dominion||ODU +9.5|
|Oct 21||Tennessee||Alabama||BAMA -31|
|Oct 21||Coastal Carolina||Appalachian St.||APP -17.5|
|Oct 21||Auburn||Arkansas||ARK +14.5|
|Oct 21||Temple||Army||ARMY -8|
|Oct 21||Central Michigan||Ball St.||BALL -1|
|Oct 21||West Virginia||Baylor||BAY +12|
|Oct 21||Wyoming||Boise St.||BSU -16|
|Oct 21||Northern Illinois||Bowling Green||BGSU +10.5|
|Oct 21||Arizona||California||CAL +5|
|Oct 21||UAB||Charlotte||CHAR +7.5|
|Oct 21||SMU||Cincinnati||CIN +4|
|Oct 21||Pittsburgh||Duke||DUKE -5|
|Oct 21||BYU||East Carolina||ECU +5.5|
|Oct 21||Western Michigan||E. Michigan||EMU +1|
|Oct 21||North Texas||Florida Atlantic||FAU +1|
|Oct 21||Louisville||Florida St.||FSU -1.5|
|Oct 21||Troy||Georgia St.||GST +6.5|
|Oct 21||Wake Forest||Georgia Tech||GT -8|
|Oct 21||Oklahoma||Kansas St.||KSU +8|
|Oct 21||Southern Miss||LA Tech||LT -2.5|
|Oct 21||Syracuse||Miami||MIAMI -14.5|
|Oct 21||Buffalo||Miami Ohio||M-OH -4.5|
|Oct 21||Indiana||Michigan St.||MSU -6|
|Oct 21||Illinois||Minnesota||MINN -13|
|Oct 21||Kentucky||Mississippi St.||MSST -9|
|Oct 21||Idaho||Missouri||MIZZ -16.5|
|Oct 21||UCF||Navy||NAVY +6.5|
|Oct 21||Iowa||Northwestern||NW -2|
|Oct 21||USC||Notre Dame||ND +1|
|Oct 21||Kent State||Ohio||OHIO -20|
|Oct 21||LSU||Ole Miss||MISS +10|
|Oct 21||Michigan||Penn St.||PSU -10.5|
|Oct 21||Purdue||Rutgers||RUTG +9.5|
|Oct 21||Fresno State||San Diego St.||SDSU -13|
|Oct 21||ULM||South Alabama||USA -2.5|
|Oct 21||Kansas||TCU||TCU -36.5|
|Oct 21||Oklahoma State||Texas||TEX +4.5|
|Oct 21||Iowa State||Texas Tech||TTU -4|
|Oct 21||Akron||Toledo||TOL -13.5|
|Oct 21||South Florida||Tulane||TUL +14|
|Oct 21||Oregon||UCLA||UCLA -2|
|Oct 21||Tulsa||UConn||CONN +6|
|Oct 21||Georgia Southern||UMass||MASS -7|
|Oct 21||USU||UNLV||UNLV -3|
|Oct 21||Arizona State||Utah||UTAH -7.5|
|Oct 21||Rice||UTSA||UTSA -16.5|
|Oct 21||Boston College||Virginia||UVA -7|
|Oct 21||North Carolina||Virginia Tech||VT -21|
|Oct 21||Colorado||Washington St.||WSU -12|
|Oct 21||Maryland||Wisconsin||WISC -24|
|Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site|
Arkansas State kicks the week off on five days rest at home against ULL. The Cajuns will be on a full week’s rest after getting some gifts last Thursday against Texas State for the win/cover.
Colorado State’s rush defense was exposed against Nevada, as the Wolfpack ran for 6.6 yards per rush. New Mexico’s bread and butter is the option, and they will certainly be a buy low candidate after getting boatraced against Fresno State
Butch Jones’ only saving grace at Tennessee is that Alabama is heading into a bye week after this week. Beating the number by three or four extra scores may not be in the mix for Nick Saban, who is looking to keep plenty of his key defensive players healthy
Don’t expect Austin Allen in Fayetteville when the Razorbacks host Auburn. Gus Malzahn may be more interested in getting his team healthy and with a win heading into their bye week than covering three scores against Arkansas. The Razorbacks covered the closing number against Alabama, and it’s about that time of year where Bret Bielema figures it out.
Boise State may be on hangover mode after a big victory against San Diego State. The Broncos host Wyoming with the winner in the driver’s seat against Colorado State later this year. The Cowboys did just post a win with fraud box score, being outgained and gifted five turnovers against Utah State.
Syracuse comes in on hangover after beating Clemson. Miami continues a magical season after needing last-minute efforts to beat Florida State and Georgia Tech. The Hurricanes are in a prime spot in Week 8.
Gus Ragland will be out again for Miami Ohio, and that was a key reason a team as poor as Kent was able to win as a nine-point dog. Buffalo continues to cover the number (perfect 7-0 ATS on the season), and any dog number here should be scooped.
LSU and Arizona State are coming off top-10 upsets against Auburn and Washington, respectively. This should provide value in the Ole Miss and Utah lines, catching the Tigers and Sun Devils at home.
Kansas has covered and nearly upset TCU four years straight. This is the one time in the year where you have full degenerate permission to bet on Jayhawks football.
There is one case in Week 8 where the home team is on a bye week (Penn State) hosting a team on back-to-back travel (Michigan). Penn State is also on a massive overlook spot, with a trip to Ohio State on deck.
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