The Baylor Bears take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
TCU is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 66 points.
Here’s my Baylor vs. TCU prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 18, 2025.
Baylor Bears vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, Picks
- Baylor vs. TCU Pick: TCU ML -145
My TCU vs. Baylor best bet is on the Horned Frogs to win the game outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Baylor vs TCU Odds, Spread, Line
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +128 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -122 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -146 |
- Baylor vs TCU Spread: TCU -2.5, Baylor +2.5
- Baylor vs TCU Over/Under: 66.5
- Baylor vs TCU Moneyline: Baylor ML +128, TCU ML -146
Baylor vs TCU College Football Betting Preview
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
At 4-2, it's clear the Baylor offense is one of the most capable in the country. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson leads the nation with over 2,000 passing yards in six games, and the Bears rank 20th in points per game.
They went into the bye week with two Big 12 wins.
But it was never the offense that was in question.
Baylor's defense leaves far more to be desired, sitting 111th in points per drive allowed and holding no FBS opponents under 27 points.
Fortunately, that defense came up huge at the end of the Kansas State win, which required a 66-yard pick-six from Jacob Redding and subsequent blocked field goal to win, 35-34.
That Kansas State team is far improved from the first few weeks of the season — that same team beat TCU last week behind 41 points — but allowing 506 yards is concerning.
On deck are a handful of potent offenses capable of lighting up the scoreboard — like TCU and Utah. If Baylor is to win 10 games and contend for a spot in Arlington (current Big 12 odds: +2000), then its defense needs to turn around in a dramatic way.
Robertson's production this year is helped along by one of the Big 12's best receiving corps.
The quartet of receiver Josh Cameron (who wears No. 34), Ole Miss transfer tight end Michael Trigg, Texas State transfer Kole Wilson (who's getting notable NFL draft attention) and Alabama transfer Kobe Prentice have combined for over 1,500 yards this season.
With point totals listed in the mid-60s, perhaps the era of dead-nut-over Baylor is coming to a close. But this is a team that will continue to play in high-scoring and high-stake games.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
A promising start to the season hit a road bump as TCU earned a 1-2 record over its last three games, with losses at Arizona State (27-24) and Kansas State (41-28).
It's been the Horned Frogs' offense that started to show some flaws during the stretch, turning the ball over three times and allowing two defensive touchdowns in Manhattan. The game prior, Arizona State outscored TCU 24-7 to close the game after the Frogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead.
Both losses seemed preventable and created frustration among TCU fans — and rightfully so.
This stretch could continue for TCU. Weeks 8 and 9 mark the sixth and seventh straight games played, six total of which come against power-conference foes and five of those against the Big 12.
Week 8 comes against arch-rival Baylor (home) and Week 9 is at West Virginia — Morgantown is a place TCU has played poorly at since joining the Big 12.
Quarterback Josh Hoover is among the country's most prolific passers, but his gunslinger tendencies have led to turnovers during his two-plus seasons as a starter.
You'll take the good with the bad, as Hoover has 56 touchdown passes during that starting stretch (including 18 already this year), but also 25 interceptions, two of which came last week.
Running back Kevorian Barnes returned last week and rushed for 81 yards on 12 carries.
Meanwhile, Receiver Eric McAlister is in the middle of one of the most impressive runs in the country. His last three games include:
- 8 catches, 254 yards, 3 TD (vs. SMU)
- 4 catches, 65 yards, 2 TD (vs. Colorado)
- 4 catches, 156 yards, 2 TD (at Kansas State)
When not allowing defensive scores, TCU has given up too many big plays, especially through the air and on late downs.
Top corner Avery Helm hasn't played in any game outside of Week 3 this season, but he was probable against Kansas State and could return here. His addition would be huge for a secondary that's given up the fourth-most 30-yard passing plays in the country.
Beyond the North Carolina opening game, TCU's defense hasn't created enough turnovers to be considered opportunistic.
It's a defense that can be written up for 24 points allowed per game.
Baylor vs TCU NCAAF Week 8 Pick
TCU opened as a juiced -2.5 home favorite and took just enough money to move to -3, which seems to be the resistance point.
The point total moved up from 63.5 at open to 66.5 by midweek.
Since joining the Big 12, TCU is 12-5 outright against Baylor in the "We're Not Calling It That" game (the schools attempted to don the rivalry the Bluebonnet Battle a couple years ago, but it hasn't landed).
Baylor took last year's game at home, 37-34, as a 3-point favorite. Since 2010, Baylor has only beaten TCU twice in Fort Worth (2019, 2013) — in each season, TCU finished 5-7 or worse.
These teams have some interesting data points with two common opponents and four similar results.
Arizona State beat both teams by a score of 27-24, but Baylor lost that game at home and TCU lost that one on the road; both teams beat SMU, but by different margins (TCU by 11 home, Baylor by three in a wild overtime game in Dallas).
We're looking at two of the most potent offenses — Robertson leads the country in yards and Hoover sits second — going against subpar secondaries and two defenses with no pass rush.
For lovers of points, this is your game this weekend.
Due to a spread that won't budge one way or another off -3, I'm taking a fair moneyline price, which should be around -164 in college football.
You can get between a 10-20 cent discount on that, so long as the spread remains on the key number.
TCU wins this series at home under both Sonny Dykes and the previous administration. These teams are about even, but I favor TCU slightly on a neutral field.
Add in home field advantage, and this is a Horned Frogs win for me.
Pick: TCU ML -145
