Baylor vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Will Bears Steal Big 12 Championship 2019?
Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ceedee Lamb
- Updated odds for Oklahoma vs. Baylor have the Sooners as a 9-point favorite for Saturday's Big 12 Championship Game, with the total rising on Saturday morning to 66.5.
- This line is a pretty big adjustment from the last time these two teams met, when Oklahoma -10.5 at Baylor. That's about a four-point adjustment in less than a month.
- Our experts break down the Big 12 Championship and give their Oklahoma-Baylor picks.
Big 12 Championship Odds: Oklahoma vs. Baylor
- Spread: Oklahoma -9
- Over/Under: 66.5
- Time: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Will Oklahoma get in?
That question won’t necessarily be answered at the Big 12 Championship, but the result of Oklahoma vs. Baylor will go a long way in deciding which team gets the fourth spot in the College Football Playoff.
The Sooners, who erased a 25-point deficit to beat Baylor in November, must win on Saturday to have a hope of getting into the dance.
The odds suggest that Oklahoma will at least get that far, as the Sooners are 9-point favorites in the Big 12 finale.
Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200 and a deposit bonus of up to $500.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor Line Movement
The No. 6 and No. 7 teams being separated by more than a touchdown sounds like it’s a bit much, which is probably why most bettors have been happy to take the points with Baylor in this game. Sixty-one percent of the both bets and 69% dollars have hit the Bears, who’ve bounced between +9 and +8.5.
The total has unsurprisingly drawn most bettors to the over, and as it turns out, they’ve been the bigger bettors too. Seventy-three percent of tickets generating 93% of money have hit the over, and the total has risen from 61 to 64/64.5 — Danny Donahue
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Collin Wilson: The Market Has Overreacted
The first matchup between these two schools had a little bit of everything. Baylor stomped to a 28-3 lead before losing 34-31 to Oklahoma.
Instead of focusing on all of the chaos, the key takeaway from that game is what Oklahoma did on its first four drives. After an eight-play drive that led to a field goal, the Sooners went on to punt, fumble and throw an interception to fall behind by 25 points.
Baylor ran just eight offensive plays in that span and started two of those three scoring drives from inside the Oklahoma 30-yard line. Turnovers are unpredictable, but take out Baylor’s eight plays and 21 points and the first matchup reads like a blowout by the Sooners.
Oklahoma had eight drives that lasted at least nine plays and scored on six separate possessions. The Sooners had a ridiculous 71% success rate in the third quarter, while Baylor was operating at 25%.
The formula is simple, when Oklahoma is not forfeiting possessions through turnovers they are a College Football Playoff team.
Despite the turnovers and a 525-to-307 total yard edge in the first game — which was in Waco, by the way — this spread has tightened by two points from the original showdown.
As long as Oklahoma takes care of the ball, Baylor will need to be flawless to hang in this game. That is unlikely to happen and I’ll be backing the Sooners at -8.5.
The Bet: Oklahoma -9
Collin Wilson is 482-404-23 (54.4%) overall betting on college football. You can follow him in our free app.
Stuckey: Can Oklahoma Overcome Matt Rhule’s Dominance as an Underdog?
This is a very interesting line considering that Oklahoma closed as a 10-point favorite in Waco just a few weeks back and that was without CeeDee Lamb.
Now, the Sooners are only -8.5 on a neutral field.
After falling behind in the first half, Lincoln Reilly changed his whole offense for the second half against Baylor in Week 12. The switch to a run-heavy attack kept the Bears’ offense on the sideline for what seemed like the entire second half.
Baylor’s defense excels at limiting big plays but isn’t very efficient. Can the Bears slow down Oklahoma’s uber-efficient offense? If Baylor tries something different and plays more aggressively, Lamb’s explosiveness could loom large.
Baylor’s offense should hit some big plays against the Sooners, who struggle to contain explosiveness. But Oklahoma’s defense is great at creating havoc and Baylor’s offensive line isn’t great, so I expect the Sooners to get to the quarterback in passing downs.
Matt Rhule is 31-15 ATS (67.4%) as an underdog in his career for an ROI of 31.3% and covering by over 5 points per game. Out of 511 coaches in our Bet Labs database, he’s the fourth-most profitable coach as a ‘dog and second-most among active coaches behind only Brian Kelly.
Even with Rhule’s success against better teams, I still think Oklahoma is slightly undervalued in the market thanks to a few close calls and a bad loss. I make this line over 10, but in a game that should see a lot of points, I’d rather trade this live based on what I see from the Baylor defense early on.
Stuckey is 519-478-29 (52.1%) overall betting on college football. You can follow him in our free app.