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Boise State vs. Hawaii Odds, Weather: Wind in Saturday Forecast Creates Betting Value (Nov. 21)


Darryl Oumi/Getty Images. Pictured: Noah Borden

  • Looking for a betting edge for tonight's nightcap between Boise State and Hawaii?
  • Look no further than the weather. Mother Nature is set to make an impact throughout the game, and that forecast has shifted the odds.
  • Check out how the wind will impact the game below.

College Football Odds: Boise State vs. Hawaii

Boise State Odds -13.5
Hawaii Odds +13.5
Over/Under 55
Time 11 p.m. ET
TV CBS Sports Network
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Looking for an edge on tonight’s Boise State-Hawaii chaser? Perhaps you should be looking to the flags flying around Aloha Stadium.

Mother Nature certainly can impact the outcome of football games, and her most impactful element — from a betting perspective — has been wind. In fact, one of our most steady PRO Betting Systems has a simple recipe of taking unders in windy games.

To be specific, games played in winds of 13 mph or more since 2005 have hit the under at a 57% rate. And that sample consists of more than 1,000 games.

That brings us to tonight’s forecast.

Note: Odds, forecast as of 1 p.m. ET.

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College Football Weather: Boise State vs. Hawaii

The wind in Honolulu tonight will be well past our profitable threshold, with an average of 20 mph projected throughout the game.

And given the especially strong wind, you might be curious to know how an increase in wind relates to changes in that historical under win rate mentioned above.

Wind Speeds of …

  • 13+ mph: 564-432-14 (56.7%)
  • 17+ mph: 176-120-9 (59.5%)
  • 20+ mph: 71-38-3 (65.1%)

And while it’s a tiny sample, the two Aloha Stadium games within our database that have reached the 20-mph mark have both gone under the total — by an average margin of 20 points, even at the closing numbers.

Oddsmakers are aware of the trend as well. They’ve moved this total from openers as high as 63.5 down to a consensus of 55 as of Saturday afternoon.

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