Bowling Green vs. Miami (Ohio) Betting Odds, Picks: Is Regression Coming for the RedHawks?

Bowling Green at Miami Odds

• Spread: Miami -17
• Over/Under: 50
• Time: Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN U

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Bowling Green at Miami Line Movement

An 18.5-point opening spread in favor of Miami Ohio hasn’t turned bettors away from the favorite, as 66% of bets to this point have landed on the RedHawks. As for actual money, however, it’s been almost the exact opposite. Sixty-eight percent of the loot on this spread has come on the underdog, revealing that bigger bettors are finding value in the points. Perhaps as a result, this spread has been lowered to a flat 18.

The total, on the other hand, has generated a sense of agreement between the majority of bettors and the bigger bettors, as the under has attracted 64% of bets and 76% of dollars. Oddsmakers have reacted by dropping the total from 51.5 to 49.5 at some spots. — Danny Donahue

Collin Wilson: When Will Miami's Luck Run Out?

If MACtion wants to turn the East Division on its head, Bowling Green would need to pull off the upset as a three-touchdown underdog on Wednesday night.

This projects as a low-scoring game and if the forecasted wind holds, this total will continue to drop.

Miami of Ohio is coming off a close win over Ohio in a huge game in the race for the East Division. Miami now controls its own destiny in the hunt for a trip to Detroit for the MAC Championship game. The RedHawks have put themselves in this position despite having one of the worst offenses in the country.

Miami ranks 126th in rushing success and 117th in passing success and have a -0.67 yards per play differential. The RedHawks have been out-gained in wins over Ohio, Northern Illinois and Buffalo. In other words, Chuck Martin's team has benefited from some good fortune this season.

Bowling Green also boasts a negative yards per play differential and ranks 123rd in passing success rate. The Falcons are also susceptible to giving up the big play, ranking outside the top 110 in preventing explosive plays.

We may see a lot of punts in this one as neither of these squads are particularly good on third down. Bowling Green ranks 109th in converting third downs and Miami ranks 120th.

The Falcons should be able to move the ball on the ground through Andrew Clair and Bryson Denley. Miami ranks 98th in opportunity and power success rate, so Bowling Green's two-headed rushing attack could have some big moments on Wednesday night.

Miami's offensive gameplan won't be all that different, as it will look to feed the ball to their running backs, Jaylon Bester and Tyre Shelton.

If this game stays on script and both teams go with a run-heavy strategy, points may be hard to come by and the clock should be on the move. While that does give a bit of value to Bowling Green against an inflated spread, I think the Under may have more value.

Bowling Green ranks 121st in red zone scoring percentage, meaning it is one of the worst teams in the nation at finishing drive. Miami isn't much better in that regard, ranking 102nd in red zone touchdown percentage, overall.

Neither of these teams are explosive, they both have trouble finishing drives and the clock should be on the move. All of those factors lead me to investing in the Under at 50 or better.

The Bet: Under 50 or better

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