Thursday College Football Updated Odds, Predictions for Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State: Betting Value on Tonight’s Over/Under (Sept. 22)
Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Darren Grainger of the Georgia State Panthers.
Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State Odds
Two Sun Belt East strongholds will meet after an unpredictable start to the season.
Both Coastal Carolina and Georgia State were on opposite ends of the TARP spectrum entering the new campaign.
Coastal Carolina was expected to struggle after losing skill position players around its quarterback and the loss of nearly the entire defense.
The Chanticleers sit at 3-0, but were outgained in total yards by Gardner-Webb in Week 2. Also, Buffalo held the lead on the Surf Turf through the end of the third quarter before Coastal Carolina scored 21 points to push the spread last week.
The story in the preseason was the complete opposite for Georgia State, as it nearly maxed out a power rating boost thanks to its amount of returning experience.
Expectations were high against South Carolina, as the Panthers outgained the Gamecocks but ultimately lost. Georgia State would go on to keep up with North Carolina yard-for-yard without a victory in Week 2.
The Panthers also took a shocking outright loss to Charlotte last week as a three-score favorite. Although the 49ers’ offense was gifted a scoop-and-score, the Panthers’ defense was shredded for more than 400 passing yards.
There has been a noticeable drop in efficiency from the Coastal Carolina offense despite an undefeated record.
With Grayson McCall at quarterback, the Chants spent two seasons with one of the best Success Rate numbers of any program in FBS, as they had the ability to have double-digit play drives and burn 10 minutes off of the clock.
Running back Reese White has the most carries on the team, but two fumbles on the season has increased the workload of CJ Beasley.
The two running backs have combined for just 17 missed tackles and an average of three yards after contact. Coastal Carolina runs the ball on 65% of snaps, but currently supports a rank of 71st in Rushing Success Rate.
Wow man Grayson McCall
A Cheat Code pic.twitter.com/D3FgdPYuBi
— Gifted (@G0dGiven_) September 4, 2022
McCall is one of the few quarterbacks in college football that is worth a touchdown to the point spread, but for the first time in his career, the offensive line is not providing protection.
The Chants’ offensive line is 114th in pass blocking and has seen a decrease in run blocking. McCall saw 12 pressures against Gardner-Webb, and that number has been eclipsed only by Appalachian State over the past three seasons.
Similar issues exist on the defensive side of the ball. It starts with no resistance to opponents that elect to throw the ball. The Chanticleers are outside the top 100 in Defensive Passing Success Rate, currently obtaining a tackling grade of 78th, per PFF.
Defensive coordinator Chad Staggs was handed one of the lower rates of returning experience, and the unit was already outside the top 100 in long passing plays allowed.
Coastal has been tough against the rush in games where its opponent is not Army. The Chants limited Buffalo and Gardner-Webb to less than 60 rushing yards, but Tyrell Robinson of the Black Knights had a trip of explosive plays and 135 total yards in Week 1.
The jury is still out on the run defense, but the Coastal pass defense must patch up holes to remain a Sun Belt powerhouse.
Head coach Shawn Elliott blames the slow start of the Panthers on mental mistakes. Blocking assignments, issues on PATs and multiple punt blocks by South Carolina have all contributed to an 0-3 start.
Georgia State is sure to have a gut check, as it ranks near dead last in penalties on the season.
When the offense is not mishandling the ball or drawing laundry on the field, there are flashes of one of the most explosive units in the Sun Belt.
— THERSdayNight.com (@THERSdayNight) September 10, 2022
Quarterback Darren Grainger has a five-to-two Big Time Throw-to-Turnover Worthy Play ratio, finding the end zone on nine occasions this season.
This is a rush-first offense (electing to run on 65% of snaps) with a Stuff Rate rank inside the top 35.
A trio of running backs have created 27 missed tackles on the short season. Marcus Carroll has been the most explosive of the backs, ranking top-20 in elusiveness of all rushers with at least 20 attempts.
— THERSdayNight.com (@THERSdayNight) September 4, 2022
The defense is where Georgia State runs into issues, as it got torched by Charlotte last week.
Sixth-year coordinator Nate Fuqua has allowed the Panthers’ tackling grade to fall to 119th in combination with a Finishing Drives rank that is outside the top 100.
In 17 opponent opportunities, teams are averaging 4.5 points after crossing the Georgia State 40-yard line.
Offenses that can get to the second level have flown past the safety position, as both Jacorey Crawford and Jontrey Hunter lead the team in missed tackles.
Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Coastal Carolina and Georgia State match up statistically:
Coastal Carolina Offense vs Georgia State Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Georgia State Offense vs Coastal Carolina Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||38||32|
|Seconds per Play||28.7 (107)||22.1 (12)|
|Rush Rate||62.1% (17)||63.1% (15)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State Pick
What made Coastal Carolina so successful the past two seasons was a methodical offense, a Havoc-minded defense and a strong Finishing Drives rank on both sides of the ball.
Head coach Jamey Chadwell is still running an offense with one of the slowest tempos in the nation at over 30 seconds per play. After being a top-20 offense in first downs over previous seasons, the number of drives led by McCall in generating movement by the chain gang has decreased.
The Coastal offensive rank in Line Yards mirrors the Georgia State defense, but when opponent adjustment is applied, there are expectations the Panthers will win the trench.
The loss to Charlotte was unexpected, as the Panthers entered as 20-point favorites. The spot was perfect for the 49ers, though, as Georgia State was in a sandwich spot after falling to two Power Five teams before its Sun Belt opener this week.
The Panthers’ offense generated 35 points on eight drives extending beyond the 40-yard line, but the defense allowed Charlotte a 58% Success Rate on offense.
The Chanticleers have posted just five passing plays over 30 yards, which may help alleviate the issues of tackling from the Georgia State secondary.
Coastal Carolina is expected to dictate pace in this game, already running the fourth-highest rate of plays on Standard Downs.
If the Georgia State defensive line can continue a strong showing in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, there may be more punts than expected.
The Action Network projection makes this game Coastal Carolina -1 with a total at 55. Considering there is no value on the Georgia State number under a field goal, look for the explosive plays to decrease against the Georgia State defense and for a methodical pace from the Coastal Carolina offense.
Key numbers in the totals in this range are 62 and 59, as bet volume should be determined on getting the best of the number.