College Football Odds, Best Bets: How We’re Betting Boise State vs UCLA, Texas Tech vs Cal, More
Samuel Stringer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Cal’s Jeremiah Hunter.
Saturday College Football Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 11 a.m. | ||
| 2:15 p.m. | ||
| 2:15 p.m. | ||
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 9:15 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Let's go bowling!
College football bowl season kicks off on Saturday with six games, starting at 11 a.m. ET and rolling all the way until 9:15 p.m. ET. It's not quite the typical college football Saturday filled with 50-plus games from sunup to sundown, but it should quench our thirst until daily bowl games start up on Monday.
As is typically the case during bowl season in the new age of college football, opt-outs, transfer portal movement, injuries, coaching changes and more can impact a bowl slate hard, so check out Stuckey's college football roster tracker for all of the latest news.
In the midst of the player movement, our staff came through with seven best bets for five of Saturday's games, including picks for UCLA vs. Boise State, Cal vs. Texas Tech, Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State and more.
Check out all seven of our staff's best bets for Saturday's opening college football bowl games below.
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Georgia Southern vs. Ohio
By Cody Goggin
Bowl season is always a tough nut to crack with the number of opt-outs, transfers and injuries. One of the biggest mismatches on Saturday’s slate from this standpoint is Georgia Southern vs. Ohio.
Ohio will be playing this game without many key offensive skill-position players. Among its transfers are starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke, starting wide receiver Miles Cross, starting running back Sieh Bangura and backup running back O’Shaan Allison.
Backup quarterback CJ Harris and wide receiver Jacoby Jones are also both injured, leaving the Bobcats without their top two quarterbacks, top two running backs and two of their top three wide receivers.
Meanwhile, Georgia Southern will be at relatively full strength. Its only transfer is a cornerback who hasn’t played since Week 7 in Jalen Denton, tight end Keaton Upshaw is opting out after recording 16 catches this season.
They also may be without leading rusher Jalen White and starting linebacker Isaac Walker — neither of whom suited up for their final contest of the season.
Offense hasn’t exactly been Ohio’s strong suit this season, either. While the Bobcats rank 40th in Success Rate, they're just 96th in Finishing Drives and 130th in explosiveness. This offensive unit comes in at 115th, according to SP+, and that's with those starters playing.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Ohio defense has been great, ranking 10th in Success Rate, first in Finishing Drives, 11th in Havoc and 13th in SP+.
Georgia Southern’s offense has been productive this season, but if the Ohio defense performs as it has for most of the year, I’d expect it to keep this a lower-scoring affair.
I don’t expect much from this backup Ohio offense, and while Georgia Southern has put up and allowed plenty of points this year, I think the Bobcats defense can hold them in check.
I like taking this game to go under the total of 48.5 and would play it down to 47.5.
Pick: Under 48.5 (Play to 47.5)
Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana
By Doug Ziefel
Jacksonville State was a team that took a ton of early money upon lines opening up for bowl season. The market has taken a clear stance on Jax State, which was a consensus +1.5 point underdog but quickly flipped to a favorite.
This matchup is going to be won on the ground, and the team best suited for that is the Gamecocks. Jacksonville State was one of the best teams in the nation against the rush, as it ranked fourth in yards per carry allowed.
However, the Gamecocks were also solid at getting their own rushing attack going, ranking 23rd in yards per carry. Now, they'll face a Louisiana defense that ranked 89th in rushing yards allowed per game.
In addition to the market movement and the matchup, motivation is a significant factor in bowl games, and the Gamecocks are the more motivated side.
This is Jacksonville State's first season in FBS and its first-ever bowl appearance. It only has one opt-out, so this team will be near full strength as it tries to put a bow on a successful year.
Pick: Jacksonville State ML -140 (Play to -160)
By Greg Liodice
For the New Orleans Bowl, the battle between the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns is a tale of two very different teams.
Jax State often relies on a more methodical approach focused on the run and defense, whereas Louisiana has a more offensive mindset, with little attention to the defensive end.
I’ve always been a believer that defense will reign supreme in the end, and the Gamecocks were among the better teams in the FBS in turnover margin.
To have that, you need monsters on your defense. Linebacker Quae Drake leads the team in tackles, and Chris Hardie leads in sacks and tackles-for-loss. The defensive back room is also full of ballhawks with Kekoura Tarnue and Jeremiah Harris threatening to pick opponents off.
Along with that, the Gamecocks were the fourth-best in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 15th-best in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
Louisiana is a solid team and will be playing in its sixth New Orleans Bowl in the last 12 years.
Chandler Fields took over at quarterback toward the middle of the season and has been quite efficient. He’s limited turnovers and completed nearly 71% of his passes. The combination of Fields and Zeon Chriss — who broke his fibula — helped Louisiana rank 23rd in Passing Success Rate.
The Ragin’ Cajuns also have a stout running game led by Jacob Kibodi. The charge led by Kibodi has helped them secure the nation's 28th-best unit in terms of Rushing Success Rate, and it's also capable of creating explosive plays.
This is the problem though for UL, while Jax State is elite at stopping the run and preventing explosive plays.
Most books have this total at 58.5, which I think is quite high. Jax State allowed around 22 points per game, while Louisiana allowed 29.5, which adds up to 51.5.
With how efficient the Gamecocks are at stifling the opposition, plus the fact that the Cajuns haven’t faced a strong defense like this, I’m targeting the under here.
Pick: Under 58.5 (Play to 55.5)
Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State
By John Feltman
This is hands down my favorite play of the weekend as Miami (OH) takes on an Appalachian State team that will be shorthanded on the offensive side of the ball.
Many are concerned that backup quarterback Aveon Smith entered the transfer portal for Miami, but let’s be real — there can’t be that much of a drop-off between Smith and third-stringer Henry Hesson.
I think this handicap is all about two key factors: special teams and defense.
The RedHawks boast the best special teams unit in the country, and we saw how big of an impact it made in the MAC Championship. This defense should be able to hold Mountaineers quarterback Joey Aguilar at bay for the majority of the afternoon.
There are just too many uncertainties for this Neers’ team, and quite frankly, I’m not sure how much they actually care about this game. Meanwhile, the RedHawks are looking for their 12th win of the season, which they haven’t done since 2003.
Even if Hesson struggles to throw the ball, I doubt he'll be asked to do much. Miami (OH) should take advantage of an App State defense that sits outside the bottom 90 in both Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.
This total also continues to drop, which favors the underdog the majority of the time. I think we may get a flat +7 with some public money coming in on the 'Neers on Saturday morning. But regardless, this is a slam-dunk spot for the RedHawks.
Pick: Miami (OH) +6.5 (Play to +6)
UCLA vs. Boise State
Both starting quarterbacks for the LA Bowl are in the transfer portal.
Taylen Green has already committed to Arkansas, which completely hampers the Boise State offense.
Not only did his ability as a passer lead the Broncos to a ranking of 36th in EPA/Pass, but his ability as a runner is what made this offense click. Green carried the ball 68 times this season for an average of 5.3 yards per carry with nine touchdowns.
To make matters worse for Boise State, backup quarterback Maddux Madsen is also out for the season, which means it’s going to be either true freshman CJ Tiller or walk-on Colt Fulton at quarterback. Neither one has taken a snap yet this season.
That means Boise State is going to have to be incredibly rush-heavy in this game, which is a massive problem because UCLA’s front seven has been one of the best units in the country at stopping the run this season. The Bruins rank second in EPA/Rush Allowed, sixth in Stuff Rate, and 14th in Defensive Line Yards.
On the other side, Dante Moore has hit the transfer portal for UCLA, meaning Ethan Garbers will get the start.
Garbers really struggled in UCLA’s final three games down the stretch. Against Arizona, USC and Cal, he averaged under 5.6 yards per attempt and had a PFF passing grade under 70 in all three games.
That means UCLA and its average rushing attack will be running the ball a lot in this game, which will keep the clock moving.
The problem with UCLA’s offense is it really struggles once it gets into scoring position. The Bruins rank 123rd in Finishing Drives and dead last in red-zone scoring percentage, as they put points on the board on just 59% of trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
Not to mention, UCLA is 10-1 to the under this season.
I have 39.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 49 points.
Pick: Under 48.5 (Play to 47)
No team is safe from the transfer portal these days, and it seems that the earlier the bowl game is (and typically less important), the more important it is to keep an eye on roster turnover before placing your bets.
UCLA and Boise State are not immune to the transfer portal woes, and as a result, both teams will be missing key pieces to their offenses, particularly under center.
Boise State starting quarterback Taylen Green is in the portal, leaving the Broncos with either a true freshman or walk-on to take the reins of the offense, whereas UCLA will be without quarterback Dante Moore while remaining hopeful that Ethan Garbers back from injury.
Given the turmoil on offense for both teams, I don’t think that the line has moved nearly enough to compensate for the lack of experience and consistency under center for both teams.
Perhaps the line has held because of the departure of UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
The Bruins ended the season as the No. 15 scoring defense in the nation, and I expect there to be enough defensive momentum for UCLA to give an up-and-coming Boise State quarterback a very tough game.
The Boise State defense finished the season tied for 59th in scoring defense but will be facing a rush-focused UCLA team, which will help to grind down the clock. I expect the Bruins to keep the ball on the ground for at least 56% of snaps (season average) but think that mark could be significantly higher because this game is unlikely to turn into an aerial showcase.
I like taking the under in this contest and expect both teams to have trouble gaining traction in the passing game. I recommend taking the under at 47.5 points or better.
Pick: Under 48.5 (Play to 47.5)
Cal vs. Texas Tech
By Brett Pund
I have not been a big believer in this Texas Tech squad all season, and I feel the end-of-season performances are not as good as they seem on paper.
Yes, the Red Raiders won three of their last four. However, they were outgained in all three of those victories.
UCF had a late extra point blocked that would have sent that game into overtime, and Kansas was forced into playing a true freshman third-string quarterback — and Tech still needed a field goal in the closing seconds to pull off that victory.
Another thing that stands out over the last month is how bad Texas Tech has been at defending the run. In the last four games, opponents have averaged over 200 rushing yards per game.
That's not good news against a dynamic runner like California’s Jaydn Ott, who finished with 1,260 yards and 11 scores on the ground in the regular season.
The Golden Bears also finished strong with three straight wins, which includes a dominant win at UCLA in the final week of the season. Cal also ran for 124 yards in that victory.
This doesn’t sound like a lot, but only Oregon State and Arizona topped that mark on the ground against the Bruins all season.
On the other side of the field, I have much more confidence in California’s defense stopping Tech’s potent ground attack. In the last four games, the Golden Bears rank in the top five among Power 5 programs in Rush Predicted Points Added.
Throw in the fact that more Red Raiders are in the portal and this is Cal’s first bowl game since 2019, and I like the underdog to cover the +4.5 and possibly win this outright.
Pick: Cal +4.5 (Play to +3)
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