Week 9 College Football Best Bets: Picks for Cal vs. USC, Boise State vs. Wyoming & More
Loren Orr/Getty Images. Pictured: The Boise State Broncos.
Week 9 of the college football season continues with best bets, including five top picks for Saturday's afternoon slate.
Our experts are diving into Wyoming vs. Boise State, USC vs. Cal and much more as part of this piece.
So, continue another big day of football as our staff provides their best bets and picks for Saturday's afternoon games.
College Football Week 9 Afternoon Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday afternoon's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 4 p.m. | ||
| 4 p.m. | ||
| 5 p.m. | ||
| 5:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Virginia vs. Miami
By John Feltman
It’s never fun laying a large number in college football, especially with a team that has a head coach that doesn’t know how to kneel. However, this is a terrific spot to back the Hurricanes.
Miami has a ton of advantages on both sides of the ball against this Virginia team, most notably its ability to create Havoc. The Canes are a top-20 team in the nation in creating Havoc, whereas the Cavs are a bottom-10 team in Havoc Allowed.
I expect QB Tyler Van Dyke to return, and this offense should kick right back into gear. The Canes should be able to take advantage of this horrendous Cavs defense.
Virginia may have defeated North Carolina last week, but it still allowed the Heels to gain nearly 500 yards of total offense. I’m not trying to tarnish the impressiveness of the Cavs’ victory, but I think this line opening as large as it did speaks volumes.
Offensively, the Cavs will struggle to get any sort of push against this Miami defensive front. They’re 116th in Rushing Success Rate and 91st in Line Yards.
They’re also pretty horrific at Finishing Drives, which happens to be the lone weakness of this Miami defense. Simply put, the Cavs are completely outclassed in this matchup, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were blanked on the scoreboard. This offense is methodical, but for the Cavs to have any shot in this game, it will require multiple turnovers.
The market seems to disagree with me, but a lot of sharp money came in on the Canes early this week. I love the spot here for Miami to take advantage of a huge letdown and sleepy situation for Virginia.
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Virginia vs. Miami
You certainly can’t deny that this Georgia Bulldogs (7-0, 4-0) roster is beaming with top-tier talent. The nation’s No. 1 program rides a 24-game win streak into Saturday’s SEC East rivalry match against the Florida Gators (5-2, 3-1).
What you can deny is that they have endured an arduous schedule to date. The Bulldogs are quite low on the strength of schedule rankings as compared to LSU, Alabama and other SEC schools.
Despite the breezy advantages of this, Georgia is 1-5 against the spread and has only led after the first quarter three times.
The Bulldogs will be without their top target in the passing game in Brock Bowers as the 80.8-yards-per-game tight end recovers from ankle surgery. Both teams are coming off a bye week, so it’s given time for both Kirby Smart to rethink plans in his absence and Billy Napier an attack strategy.
Bowers owns a commanding 21.6% target share, so Carson Beck must elicit the best from Dominic Lovett and the rest of his receiving corps against a Gators secondary that limits to 16.7 completions.
Oscar Delp steps in as Georgia’s No. 1 tight end on the depth chart, so it will be interesting to see if Smart still uses the sophomore in plays designed for Bowers.
On the other side of the ball, Graham Mertz has been shining as college football’s No. 3 quarterback in completion percentage (76.1%). He’s only thrown one interception and is hot off a 423-yard performance against South Carolina two weeks ago.
The Bulldogs front seven are not a forgiving unit by any means — they are an all-world assembly. The silver lining for Mertz is that this defense ranks outside the top 50 in completions allowed. In the meantime, Georgia ranks second in defending against third-down completions (3.2 per game).
Mertz will have his work cut out for him there as the Gators have been dreadful in moving the chains on third down (3.7). If the explosive backfield tandem of Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne (120.7 yards between them) or top receiver Ricky Pearsall can’t convert, Mertz will need to carry it himself.
Georgia gives little room for error. However, with Mertz continuing to progress in Napier’s trending offense over the last two games (39.5 points), the Gators should be able to hang around within two possessions.
USC vs. Cal
By Alex Hinton
The Pac-12 has eight teams that rank in the top 50 nationally in scoring offense.
Cal is not one of them, but it also is not far off.
The Golden Bears are basically averaging 30 points per game (29.9), so they’re hitting this number on average. They’ve scored 30 points in four of their seven games this season, including 32 points against Washington and 40 against a very good Oregon State defense.
This week, Cal’s offense gets one of its best matchups of the entire season when it hosts USC.
The Trojans are ninth in the Pac-12 and 107th in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing an average of 30.5 points per game. They’ve allowed at least 28 points in each of their last five games, giving up an average of 38 points per game in that span.
Last week, the total in the Utah-USC kept trending downward, closing at 51.5 points. Now, Utah’s offense has been abysmal without Cam Rising this season, but the line movement confused me because it was facing USC’s defense.
Sure enough, the Utes scored 34 points as the game flew over the closing line and the opening line (56.5) with 66 points.
USC has particularly struggled to stop the run this season, ranking 92nd in Rushing Success Rate and 97th in rushing Explosiveness defensively.
USC has given up at least 200 rushing yards in two of its last three games and has allowed an average of 164.3 per game for the season.
Running successfully against USC has the added benefit of keeping Caleb Williams off the field.
Cal will lean heavily on Jaydn Ott this week. The sophomore tailback ranks fourth in the Pac-12 with 601 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry and is eighth with five touchdowns.
Montana State transfer Isaiah Ifanse is averaging over five yards per carry and has seven rushing touchdowns himself. As a team, the Golden Bears rank 26th in Rushing Success Rate.
Cal scored 35 points against USC in Los Angeles last season. It also covered, and I lean towards it covering the 10.5-point spread again this week.
However, in order to cover, it will likely need 28 points to keep pace with USC’s offense.
Pick: Cal Team Total Over 27.5 Points
Tulane vs. Rice
Tulane will make the trip to Houston, Texas, to face Rice for a Saturday afternoon kickoff.
I like backing the over in this game because of the relative weakness of both teams' defense, and the weather is shaping up to be supportive of unadulterated football fun.
Tulane enters the game with the better defense, ranked 60th in the PFF power rankings. But this ranking is bolstered by the Green Wave's run defense.
When we separate out the rushing and passing units, the glaring weakness is the Tulane pass defense, which ranks 118th in passing defense nationally and allows an average of 263.1 yards per game.
This presents a poor matchup for the pass-focused Owls, who throw the ball on 62.0% of snaps.
Rice has the defensive deficit in the game, ranking just 92nd nationally in the PFF power rankings. Rice is marginally better against the rush than it is against the pass. The Owls rank 92nd in the nation in passing defense, giving up 242.6 aerial yards per game.
While Tulane has a more balanced offense, I expect it to lean into the passing game as a part of the game plan in this matchup.
In addition to both programs being susceptible to defensive shortcomings, the advanced statistics suggest that passing the ball should be a heavier emphasis for both teams. Both Tulane and Rice have a negative EPA per run at -0.05 and -0.08, respectively.
The weather looks perfect for fall football in Houston, as well. At the time of writing, the forecast for kickoff is partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid- to high-70s.
My model is projecting the total for this game at 56.5, offering a comfortable cushion to the market total of 53.
I like backing the passing advantage that both teams will have in this game and recommend betting the over at 54.5 or better.
Louisiana vs. South Alabama
With how efficient these two offenses have been, this total is too low.
Louisiana starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge went down with a foot injury at the beginning of the UAB game on Sept. 16, but Zeon Chriss has performed admirably as the starter.
While Chriss is a below-average passer, his ability on the ground really makes the Ragin' Cajuns' rushing attack incredibly deadly. Chriss is coming off a 130-yard performance against Georgia State last weekend and is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt.
18 of his 36 carries have gone for over 10 yards, per PFF, which is an insane number for someone who entered the season as a backup quarterback.
Starting running back Jacob Kibodi is having a fine season as well, averaging over seven yards per carry. This duo has Louisiana inside the top 20 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
The flip side, though, is I'm not sure how Louisiana stops South Alabama. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 115th in Success Rate Allowed, 79th in EPA/Play Allowed and 110th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
The massive problem in this matchup is the Ragin’ Cajuns can't stop the run to save their lives. Louisiana sits 120th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 101st in EPA/Rush Allowed and last in college football in Stuff Rate.
All of that is a terrible combination against a top-10 rushing attack.
South Alabama running back La'Damian Webb is having a fantastic season, carrying the ball for a 5.6 yards per carry average and helping the Jaguars rank sixth in EPA/Rush and fourth in rushing Explosiveness.
It's not just about the rushing attack for South Alabama, though, because Carter Bradley has been slinging it all over the field. He's averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and ranks 23rd in college football in passing EPA.
The reason he's been so good is because the offensive line in front of him has done a great job of protecting him, allowing a pressure rate of just 17.2%.
Louisiana sits at 122nd in pressure rate on the defensive side of the ball, so Bradley is going to have all day to throw.
With two incredibly efficient offenses going head-to-head, I think we have a high-scoring affair on our hands. I like the value on Over 54.5 points.
Wyoming vs. Boise State
This is a great spot to buy low on Boise State. Both teams are coming off a bye, but I think Boise State needed it more. The overwhelming favorite to win the Mountain West entering the season is just 3-4, but it’s been a weird year.
The Broncos got crushed by Washington, lost to UCF on a walk-off field goal in a strange game, lost to Memphis by three but outplayed them and then lost to Colorado State by one on a Hail Mary after they were up by 20 with four minutes left.
Taylen Green was the Mountain West Freshman of the Year last season, but has essentially been benched in the last three games. The bye should give them a chance to figure out what’s wrong with Green and fix some things.
Even if they don’t, Ashton Jeanty has been the best running back in the country. He’s averaging 124 yards per game with 11 touchdowns. He leads the nation with 604 yards after contact and has forced 56 missed tackles. He’s a legitimate threat to score every time he touches the football.
Veteran back George Holani is also expected to return this week, providing even more depth in a backfield that’s seventh in the nation in Rushing Success Rate.
This is not the normal Wyoming defense we’re used to seeing. It’s 106th in Defensive Success Rate and just 121st in creating Havoc.
Most concerningly, the Cowboys are 95th at defending the run. Appalachian State put up 217 rushing yards against them, New Mexico rushed for 225 and Air Force burned them for 356 yards.
Boise State’s defensive numbers are bad too, but look at the offenses it has played. The Broncos have faced Washington, UCF, Memphis, San Jose State and Colorado State.
But Wyoming is not very good on offense and doesn’t have the weapons on the outside — or the quarterback — to take advantage of the issues Boise State has had defending the pass.
Expect a get-right game for Boise State, coming off a bye and back at home on the Smurf Turf. The Broncos should be able to run the ball all over this Wyoming defense.
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