College Football Bowl Predictions: Brett McMurphy’s Week 11 Projections With Projected Spreads
Tom Hauck/Getty Images. Pictured: UCLA’s Kam Brown (0), wide receiver Kazmeir Allen (19) and Logan Loya (17).
Week 11 College Football Bowl Predictions
In 2020, when the recent six-year bowl cycle began, there was a guaranteed spot for 84 teams to fill 42 bowls.
Last year, when the San Francisco Bowl folded, it was reduced to 82 bowl teams until ESPN created a bowl literally in the last minute. This allowed all 84 bowl-eligible teams to play in the postseason.
But because it appears there will not be enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all 84 spots this year, ESPN will not need to create an additional bowl to replace the San Francisco Bowl, sources told Action Network.
Entering the season’s final four weeks, I’m projecting there will not be 82 bowl-eligible teams, meaning several 5-7 teams would be needed to fill the remaining spots. ESPN will only add an additional bowl — like last year, it's expected to be the Frisco Football Classic, sources said — if there are 84 teams that reach six wins and bowl eligibility.
After last weekend, 52 teams are now bowl-eligible, while 15 have been mathematically eliminated. That means 64 teams are alive to reach bowl eligibility with 30 spots to fill.
Still, this week’s projections include three 5-7 teams: Missouri, Texas Tech and Iowa State.
Here are this week’s projections with Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.
CFP National Championship Prediction
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Georgia
PK![]()
Ohio State
PK![]()
College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections
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Georgia
-10.5![]()
Tennessee
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Ohio State
-17![]()
UCLA
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New Year's Six Bowl Games
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Oregon
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Michigan
-4.5![]()
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LSU
-9![]()
Tulane
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TCU
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Alabama
-5.5![]()
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North Carolina
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Penn State
-6.5![]()
Projections for All Other Bowls
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Illinois
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Ole Miss
-4![]()
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Notre Dame
-5![]()
Kentucky
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Wisconsin
-1.5![]()
Florida
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Buffalo
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Fresno State
-8![]()
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Clemson
-5![]()
Mississippi State
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Louisville
-3.5![]()
Oregon State
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NC State
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Iowa
-1![]()
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Texas
-3.5![]()
USC
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Florida State
-2![]()
Baylor
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Pittsburgh
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Minnesota
-3![]()
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Oklahoma
-9![]()
South Carolina
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Wake Forest
-1.5![]()
Washington
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Oklahoma State
-4.5![]()
Missouri
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Duke
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Cincinnati
-12![]()
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Purdue
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Kansas State
-4.5![]()
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Eastern Michigan
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South Alabama
-14.5![]()
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BYU
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Iowa State
-6![]()
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Kansas
-13![]()
San Diego State
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Michigan State
-18.5![]()
Bowling Green
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San Jose State
-13![]()
Middle Tennessee
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Georgia Tech
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Liberty
-7![]()
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Louisiana
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Houston
-7.5![]()
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Air Force
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Texas Tech
-5![]()
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UTSA
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Troy
-1.5![]()
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East Carolina
-5![]()
Coastal Carolina
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Toledo
-7![]()
UNLV
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Western Kentucky
-5.5![]()
Georgia Southern
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Memphis
PK![]()
Appalachian State
PK![]()
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Arkansas
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Utah
-4.5![]()
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Ball State
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Marshall
-11![]()
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Washington State
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Boise State
-2![]()
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Wyoming
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North Texas
-14![]()
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UCF
-2.5![]()
Syracuse
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UAB
-4.5![]()
Southern Miss
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Florida Atlantic
PK![]()
Ohio
PK![]()
* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.
**If there are enough six-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN will create another bowl not listed above. This week, Action Network does not project enough six-win teams for a 42nd bowl.
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