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College Football Bowl Predictions: Brett McMurphy’s Week 11 Projections With Projected Spreads

College Football Bowl Predictions: Brett McMurphy’s Week 11 Projections With Projected Spreads article feature image
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Tom Hauck/Getty Images. Pictured: UCLA’s Kam Brown (0), wide receiver Kazmeir Allen (19) and Logan Loya (17).

Week 11 College Football Bowl Predictions

In 2020, when the recent six-year bowl cycle began, there was a guaranteed spot for 84 teams to fill 42 bowls.

Last year, when the San Francisco Bowl folded, it was reduced to 82 bowl teams until ESPN created a bowl literally in the last minute. This allowed all 84 bowl-eligible teams to play in the postseason.

But because it appears there will not be enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all 84 spots this year, ESPN will not need to create an additional bowl to replace the San Francisco Bowl, sources told Action Network.

Entering the season’s final four weeks, I’m projecting there will not be 82 bowl-eligible teams, meaning several 5-7 teams would be needed to fill the remaining spots. ESPN will only add an additional bowl — like last year, it’s expected to be the Frisco Football Classic, sources said — if there are 84 teams that reach six wins and bowl eligibility.

After last weekend, 52 teams are now bowl-eligible, while 15 have been mathematically eliminated. That means 64 teams are alive to reach bowl eligibility with 30 spots to fill.

Still, this week’s projections include three 5-7 teams: Missouri, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Here are this week’s projections with Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

CFP National Championship Prediction

  • CFP National Championship

    Monday, Jan. 9
    Los Angeles, CA

    Georgia

    PK

    Ohio State

    PK

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Atlanta, GA

    Georgia

    -10.5

    Tennessee

  • Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Glendale, AZ

    Ohio State

    -17

    UCLA


New Year’s Six Bowl Games

  • Rose Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Pasadena, CA

    Oregon

    Michigan

    -4.5
  • Goodyear Cotton Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Arlington, TX

    LSU

    -9

    Tulane

  • Allstate Sugar Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    New Orleans, LA

    TCU

    Alabama

    -5.5
  • Capital One Orange Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Miami, FL

    North Carolina

    Penn State

    -6.5

Projections for All Other Bowls

  • Citrus Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Orlando, FL

    Illinois

    Ole Miss

    -4
  • ReliaQuest Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Tampa, FL

    Notre Dame

    -5

    Kentucky

  • Music City Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Nashville, TN

    Wisconsin

    -1.5

    Florida

  • Arizona Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Tucson, AZ

    Buffalo

    Fresno State

    -8
  • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Jacksonville, FL

    Clemson

    -5

    Mississippi State

  • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    El Paso, TX

    Louisville

    -3.5

    Oregon State

  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Charlotte, NC

    NC State

    Iowa

    -1
  • Valero Alamo Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    San Antonio, TX

    Texas

    -3.5

    USC

  • Cheez-It Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Orlando, FL

    Florida State

    -2

    Baylor

  • Pinstripe Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Bronx, NY

    Pittsburgh

    Minnesota

    -3
  • TaxAct Texas Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Houston, TX

    Oklahoma

    -9

    South Carolina

  • Holiday Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    San Diego, CA

    Wake Forest

    -1.5

    Washington

  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Memphis, TN

    Oklahoma State

    -4.5

    Missouri

  • Military Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Annapolis, MD

    Duke

    Cincinnati

    -12
  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Phoenix, AZ

    Purdue

    Kansas State

    -4.5
  • Camellia Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Montgomery, AL

    Eastern Michigan

    South Alabama

    -14.5
  • Birmingham Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Birmingham, AL

    BYU

    Iowa State

    -6
  • First Responder Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Dallas, TX

    Kansas

    -13

    San Diego State

  • Quick Lane Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 26
    Detroit, MI

    Michigan State

    -18.5

    Bowling Green

  • EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 24
    Honolulu, HI

    San Jose State

    -13

    Middle Tennessee

  • Gasparilla Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Tampa, FL

    Georgia Tech

    Liberty

    -7
  • Independence Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Shreveport, LA

    Louisiana

    Houston

    -7.5
  • Armed Forces Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 22
    Fort Worth, TX

    Air Force

    Texas Tech

    -5
  • New Orleans Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 21
    New Orleans, LA

    UTSA

    Troy

    -1.5
  • Boca Raton Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boca Raton, FL

    East Carolina

    -5

    Coastal Carolina

  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boise, ID

    Toledo

    -7

    UNLV

  • Myrtle Beach Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 19
    Conway, SC

    Western Kentucky

    -5.5

    Georgia Southern

  • Frisco Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Frisco, TX

    Memphis

    PK

    Appalachian State

    PK
  • Las Vegas Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Las Vegas, NV

    Arkansas

    Utah

    -4.5
  • LendingTree Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Mobile, AL

    Ball State

    Marshall

    -11
  • Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Los Angeles, CA

    Washington State

    Boise State

    -2
  • New Mexico Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Albuquerque, NM

    Wyoming

    North Texas

    -14
  • Wasabi Fenway Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Boston, MA

    UCF

    -2.5

    Syracuse

    • Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

      Friday, Dec. 16
      Orlando, FL

      UAB

      -4.5

      Southern Miss

    • Bahamas Bowl

      Friday, Dec. 16
      Nassau, Bahamas

      Florida Atlantic

      PK

      Ohio

      PK

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**If there are enough six-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN will create another bowl not listed above. This week, Action Network does not project enough six-win teams for a 42nd bowl.

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