Week 7 CFB Final Scores: Frauds, Deserving Winners and Misleading Games

Oct 14, 2019 11:15 PM EDT
Credit:

Marc Lebryck-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rutgers

  • College football final scores never tell the whole story of a game and each team's performance.
  • To truly identify the team's performance, you must dig deep into the boxscore.
  • We've identified some frauds and deserving winners from Week 7 and discuss how to bet those teams moving forward.

The final score doesn’t tell the story of most college football games.

That’s why we’ve combed through every Week 7 boxscore to identify several different types of winners and losers — those who deserved it, those who deserved better and some more complicated cases.

For us at The Action Network, this is all useless without a betting spin, so I outline what’s next for these teams and how you might want to think about betting on or against them moving forward.

Let’s get to it.

CFB Final Scores & Betting Breakdown, Week 7

Deserving Winners

Oklahoma, 34-27 vs. Texas

Odds: Oklahoma -10, over/under 77.5

Why? The Sooners outgained Texas by 201 yards, but had several untimely turnovers that made this game much closer than it should have been.

Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts does play with fire sometimes when throwing on the run — his ugly redzone interception evidence of that — but this offense was still insanely efficient.

The defense looked great, holding Texas to just 4.2 yards per play and making Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger’s life miserable for most of the game.

What’s next? It’s time to start trusting this Oklahoma defense and betting accordingly. We won’t see a sky-high total when the Sooners host West Virginia next week, but there may be opportunities to take a few more Oklahoma unders down the stretch.

Louisiana Tech, 69-21 over UMass

Odds: LT -31.5, 62.5

Why? Books just can’t set UMass lines high enough. La. Tech had nearly 700 total yards and covered with ease despite losing the turnover battle. It had 52 points at halftime!

What’s next? Because UMass played in Week 0, you have only five more opportunities to fade the Minutemen, who are 1-6 against the spread.

And two of the next three are complicated — hosting UConn in the Toilet Bowl, so I don’t think that’s an autofade, and at Army, which doesn’t blow anyone out (though the Black Knights may run for 500 yards).

LSU, 42-28 over Florida

Odds: LSU -13.5, over/under 55.5

Why? LSU averaged 10.6 yards per play, its most ever in a game against a ranked opponent. Joe Burrow was phenomenal again.

Give Florida some credit, too. The Gators posted 457 total yards (albeit at just 5.4 yards per play) and new quarterback Kyle Trask more than held his own in Death Valley.

What’s next? Overshadowed by LSU’s stellar offense is the fact that the defense may not be the Tiger defenses of old. Not bad, just not elite. I don’t think the market can set the Alabama-LSU over/under high enough.

LSU gets a Mississippi State team next week that seems like it has given up. Florida goes to South Carolina, then has a bye before Georgia.

It’s Complicated

Penn State, 17-12 over Iowa

Odds: PSU -3.5, over/under 43.5

Why? Penn State was outgained but had three touchdowns taken off the board due to reviews and penalties, and controlled the entire second half. Despite being a one-score game, it never felt like Iowa was threatening on offense.

This game could go in a lot of different categories. Fault Penn State for not moving the ball much through the air, sure, but don’t fault the defense.

Iowa got a late touchdown on a beautiful throw-and-catch to close the gap.

What’s next? Penn State hosts Michigan this week for its yearly whiteout, and I think being at home will make a world of difference for quarterback Sean Clifford. The defense plays anywhere, and it should show up in a big way on Saturday.

Indiana, 35-0 over Rutgers

Odds: Indiana -27.5, over/under 50

Why? Indiana held Rutgers to one passing yard. One.

The Hoosiers posted 557 yards of their own and took their foot off the gas in the second half. This could have been much worse.

What’s next? Like UMass, the market just can’t set lines high enough against Rutgers, and the Scarlet Knights close the season with Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State.

Boxscore Frauds

Temple, 30-28 over Memphis

Odds: Memphis -5, over/under 49.5

Why? Memphis threw for 363 yards but lost the turnover battle, 4-2, and went 0-3 on fourth down — including once in Owls territory when the game was winding down.

Temple played well and jumped out to an early lead, but had this game gone on any longer, Memphis surely would have erased the deficit.

What’s next? Memphis has a huge game against Tulane next week, which could help decide the AAC West. The Green Wave rank top 20 in yards per pass attempt allowed and should match up well against the Tigers offense.

FAU, 28-13 over MTSU

Odds: FAU -11, over/under 61.5

Why? Middle Tennessee entered this game 72nd nationally in yards per pass attempt, but posted 335 yards (8.2 per attempt) against FSU. Three interceptions ultimately buried the Blue Raiders.

FAU meanwhile didn’t do much against an MTSU defense that ranked 121st in yards per play allowed entering the game. It averaged just 5.3 yards per play and 5.3 through the air.

What’s next? FAU has two stingy defenses in the next three weeks — Marshall and Western Kentucky.

Number pending of course, I’ll be looking at the under in both. Anything in the mid-50’s against Marshall next week would be great.

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