College Football Futures Odds, Picks: Oregon State, Duke Among Surprise Undefeated Teams

Every so often, the college football world takes its eye off the ball long enough for a team to sneak up and truly surprise.

With Colorado taking up all of the underdog oxygen in the sport, there are a few teams flying so far below the radar that they’re clipping the top of trees.

But this exercise won’t make much sense unless I define “surprise” right off the bat.

For my purposes, none of these teams I’m about to discuss were highly ranked (top 15) in either of the preseason polls, nor have any of them finished a season in the top 10 in the past 20 years.

This isn’t an opportunity to applaud Oklahoma’s offense, Florida State and Texas’ “back-ness” or even give Michael Penix Jr. and his Huskies their collective flowers. This article exists to point out the possibility that some truly wild teams could be vying for a College Football Playoff invite deep into November.

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All futures odds are as of Wednesday morning and via FanDuel.

Let’s start with Oregon State. A 10-win team from a year ago, the Beavers upgraded in the transfer portal at quarterback, yet they remain woefully underappreciated three weeks into the season.

I understand why.

Oregon State was left without a conference when the realignment music stopped, and there's a clown car of nationally-ranked teams with better quarterbacks alongside it in the Pac-12 this season.

But the Beavers have four concrete things going for them.

They create Havoc defensively (15th) and prevent negative plays when they have the ball (fourth in Havoc Allowed). They run the ball better than any team in the country from a success perspective, thanks to future NFL feature back Damien Martinez.

And DJ Uiagalelei looks reborn in Jonathan Smith’s system. He’s 13th in QBR nationally with 10 total touchdowns in the Beavers' first three games.

And most crucially, the Oregon State schedule sets up with enough ranked opponents to impress the committee. Three of those ranked teams — UCLA, Utah and Washington — come to Corvallis.

If they win this conference with just one loss, that's the kind of résumé that would get them into the CFP. To think that Oregon State controls its own destiny, even with an allowance for a single loss, is a pretty big shocker.

Sticking in the Power 5, North Carolina is up next.

Its résumé already includes three wins over likely bowl teams in South Carolina, Appalachian State and Minnesota, and the upcoming schedule is constructed perfectly. The Tar Heels avoid Florida State and host nationally ranked Miami and Duke.

Yes, the regular season ends with trips to Clemson and NC State, but those games look far less daunting than they did a month ago.

Offensively, the Tar Heels have adjusted to life post-Phil Longo, ranking 10th in total offense with a decidedly more balanced attack. Drake Maye remains a generational talent under center, ranking 15th in QBR, and is coming off a 414-yard performance against one of the nation’s top defensive coordinators in Minnesota's Joe Rossi.

But it's Omarion Hampton’s emergence at running back that should be putting teams on notice. The former four-star recruit has exploded with six touchdowns in three games.

And finally, the UNC defense — which was putrid last season — has improved dramatically against the pass. Last season’s secondary was burnt to a crisp, finishing 116th in passing defense while surrendering 28-plus points to five ACC opponents.

Through three games this year, UNC ranks 36th in Success Rate against the pass and has jumped into the top 20 in sacks per game after finishing 128th last fall.

If the Tar Heels can navigate their schedule with just one loss, an ACC title game win over Florida State could be the springboard they need to vault into a shocking College Football Playoff berth.

From one ACC team to a former member, we examine Maryland.

The Terps have feasted on lowly nonconference opponents in recent years. Maryland has won 11 straight non-con games — the third-longest active streak — and Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Big Ten in passing yards entering Week 4.

But can they actually sustain this early-season success, or will they wilt once again? Voters in both polls are taking a wait-and-see approach, parking Maryland in the “others receiving votes” camp. But it may be time to start preparing for a nationally ranked and relevant Maryland.

Offensively, Tagovailoa gives the Terps a high floor. He’s led Maryland to back-to-back bowl wins for the first time in 20 years, guided the Terps to 57 total points against Ohio State and Michigan last season and avoided the turnover bug with just eight interceptions in his last 15 starts.

Their skill positions are loaded, particularly at running back and tight end, and they’ve pieced together an effective offensive line that was previously viewed as a liability with 27.7% of returning starts (T-123rd). Through three games, Maryland has surrendered just three sacks (20th).

Defensively, the Terrapins rank top-50 against the pass in a few key metrics, but they're clearly vulnerable against the run. Luckily for Maryland, four of its next five opponents can’t run the ball at all. Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois and Northwestern all rank outside of the top 100 in rushing yards per game.

The Terps' season will be defined by their performance against the three bullies on the Big Ten East block. They travel to Ohio State and host both Penn State and Michigan. But a closer examination of those games reveals that Maryland may have a puncher’s chance, due to situational angles, in those contests.

Penn State travels to State College in a look-ahead spot with Michigan on deck the following week in Happy Valley. And Michigan turns around to play Maryland on the road following that colossal game with Penn State in mid-November. As for the tilt with Ohio State, Maryland has thrown scares into Ohio State in recent years. The Terps lost a 52-51 thriller to the Buckeyes in 2018 and were within three of Ohio State in the closing minutes last season.

Don’t be surprised if Maryland finally breaks through against one of those three top-10 teams and chisels out a path, albeit a steep one, to the CFP by mid-November.

Let’s make one more stop in the ACC.

Duke, much like Oregon State, creates Havoc defensively (25th) while avoiding it when it has the ball (20th). And like the Beavers, they have an asset at quarterback and a skilled coaching staff.

What the Blue Devils have that Oregon State and the rest of the teams listed above do not is a marquee win. Dropping Clemson by 21 points was arguably the best win in the program’s history. And now they have an inside track to the ACC Championship and a monster nonconference home game just 10 days away.

Hosting a Notre Dame team coming off of its matchup with Ohio State is a golden opportunity to vault into the top 10, if not the top five.

For those in the know, Sam Hartman has been a far less effective quarterback on the road in his career than he is at home.

Last season at Wake Forest, his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 23:4 at home led to a 5-2 mark straight up and against the spread. When he took the show on the road, his ratio dropped to 12:7, and the Demon Deacons were just 2-3 SU and ATS.

At quarterback for Duke, Riley Leonard remains criminally underrated and now ranks eighth nationally in QBR. The dual-threat signal-caller quietly put together a star turn last fall with 3,666 total yards and 33 touchdowns and has looked unflappable since the second half of the Clemson opener.

Mike Elko makes Duke’s inclusion on this list a no-brainer because he’s completely overhauled a wretched defense in record time. Duke gave up 40 points per game in 2021 while finishing dead last in FBS in total defense.

Fast forward to today, and the Blue Devils have virtually eliminated any opportunities for opponents to burn them with the big play. Through three weeks, Duke ranks first in limiting explosive pass plays and fifth in passes defended.

If it finds a way to split with Notre Dame and Florida State, Duke could be lurking in the No. 7 to No. 10 range of the CFP rankings leading up to the ACC title game.

The fact that there's a plausible path for the Blue Devils is simply remarkable.

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