Week 5 College Football Moneyline Underdogs: Florida, Ole Miss Highlight Top Picks (Sept. 30)

For the sixth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.

Last week, Collin got Georgia Tech home with ease, but I let us down with UTEP and the corpse of Miner Nation. Onto Week 5 we go.

• 2018-22: 60-98, +8.3 units
• 2023: 4-4, +3.85 units
• Overall: 64-100, +12.15 units

This week, Collin and I are rolling with a pair of short SEC pups, starting with a noon kick. If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both dogs pays out +340 at current prices.

Wilson: Florida +100

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One of the biggest transfer portal acquisitions in the SEC hasn't panned out as expected.

Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary continues to struggle under center despite facing one of the easiest schedules in the nation. The fifth-year senior has thrown an interception in every game against the defenses of Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt.

Questions persist about whether the torn pectoral injury that ended his 2022 season is still lingering.

Meanwhile, Florida's resume has plenty of more respectable bullet points, from a losing road effort against Utah to a rivalry win over Tennessee.

A large portion of the credit goes to new defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, who was plucked from the same role at Southern Mississippi. The Gators rank as the top overall defense in Rushing Success Rate and have complementary top-10 ranks in Line Yards and pass rush.

Quality Drives have been elusive for Florida's opponents, as their only avenue for success has been through the air. However, with Leary's struggles, that spells bad news for the Cats.

It's also worth noting that Florida quarterback Graham Mertz has exceeded expectations since arriving in Gainesville, posting the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his career to date.

What the Gators lack in explosives is made up via methodical drives. Florida ranks in the top 50 in both Quality and Finishing Drives, which is exactly how Kentucky's defense can be attacked.

Points should be at a premium in this matchup between two quality defenses, but I trust Florida's offense to be more consistent over a Kentucky offense that ranks 108th in Standard Down Success Rate.

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Stuckey: Ole Miss +120

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Yes, LSU's offense looks fantastic and should cook against an improved, but still vulnerable, Ole Miss defense. However, I can say the same thing about the Ole Miss offense against an LSU defense that has been one of the most disappointing units in college football.

Coming into the season, I had major concerns about the Tigers' secondary, which has struggled, but I didn't expect the entire unit to play this poorly over the first month of the season. After four games, LSU's defense ranks outside the top 100 in Success Rate and in the bottom 10 nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate and explosiveness.

That's not an ideal combination against a Lane Kiffin offense.

In fairness, the Ole Miss offense hasn't looked that crisp at times, but I believe a lot of that has to do with the injuries as it's played most of the season without three key pass-catchers — Tre Harris, Zakhari Franklin and Caden Prieskorn.

However, all three saw action in last week's game against Alabama despite being listed as doubtful. That's a very good sign heading into this matchup.

Plus, explosive running back Quinshon Judkins — the engine that makes the car go — has been banged up but hinted that he may finally be back to full strength. Those are massive additions for an offense that still ranks in the top 10 nationally in explosiveness.

Since I make the Rebels a minuscule favorite, I'll happily take the plus sign in what should be an absolute shootout that could come down to whichever offense has the ball last.

I also like a little variance when it comes to moneyline underdogs, and we may get some of that with Kiffin's fourth-down aggression.

Sportsbooks with the Best Average Moneyline Pricing for College Football

Sportsbook Pricing Analysis parameters:

• Data collected from January 1, 2022, to August 8, 2023
• Closing odds used (the odds 30 minutes before game-time) in calculations
• Each data point is the average book-edge for the month
• Each data point shown represents a percent of the book's edge

The book with the lowest average book edge represents the best price.

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