Saturday College Football Picks: Our Favorite Week 5 NCAAF Favorites, Featuring SMU & Texas

You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.

Well, we decided last year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.

We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.

Fortunately, we had two sweat-free winners last weekend in Texas A&M and Tennessee for our second straight Saturday sweep, bringing us to 6-2 on the season heading into this weekend.

Let's keep the momentum rolling in Week 5 with another pair of home favorites laying a hefty number, starting with an afternoon Big 12 affair.

Wilson: Texas -16.5

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Austin will be the site for two undefeated Big 12 teams clashing for early-season conference supremacy.

Texas is one week away from heading to Dallas for the Red River Showdown, which will in all likelihood guarantee the winner a trip to the conference championship game in Arlington.

But first, Texas must avoid getting caught looking ahead to the Sooners by taking care of business against Kansas, which will make the trip down south on I-35 with an electric offense and defense that surprisingly leads the nation in Havoc with 35 tackles for loss and 25 passes defensed under coordinator Brian Borland.

The Jayhawks hope that trend continues, as they'll hope to rattle Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers early and often.

While the high-powered Kansas offense has received some unexpected help so far from the defense, I question the quality of opponents.

To date, the Jayhawks have faced BYU, Nevada, Illinois and Missouri. That's not exactly a murderer's row of offenses, with an average strength of schedule rank of 121st.

This handicap essentially boils down to whether or not Ewers can avoid mistakes and if the Texas defense can handle all of the pre-snap motion and misdirection of the Kansas offense. I believe the Longhorns can on both fronts.

Last season, Texas went up to Lawrence and absolutely throttled Kansas, 55-14. The Jayhawks couldn't get anything going on the ground, averaging only 2.2 yards per carry. Well, the ground game makes everything else go on that offense.

As a result, Kansas failed to piece together a single methodical drive, leaning on short passes that resulted in quick tackles without much after the catch.

Unfortunately for the Jayhawks, the Texas defense is even better this season, especially up front, which could completely stymie anything Kansas wants to do schematically.

Meanwhile, Ewers has already amassed nine touchdowns and no interceptions, recording just a single turnover-worthy play all season. That could spell doom against a Kansas defense that has completely relied on creating Havoc this season — and doing so against much less potent offenses.

Finally, Texas just has a massive edge when it comes to the talent discrepancy between these two rosters.

Even with the potential lookahead to Oklahoma, I think the Horns take care of business just as they did in this same spot last year against West Virginia in a 38-20 victory as a 7.5-point favorite.

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Stuckey: SMU -23.5

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After a humbling loss against rival TCU, I'm laying the points with SMU in a classic bounce-back spot at home against an inferior opponent.

I actually have SMU power-rated similar to Florida, which just laid 28 at home against Charlotte in a super flat spot while dealing with injuries and suspensions.

I believe the Mustangs still have some value in the market after two high-profile road losses to TCU and Oklahoma even though I saw some really positive things in Norman against the Sooners.

Believe it or not, SMU actually outgained Oklahoma in that game as it trailed by only a field goal midway through the fourth quarter.

The SMU defense has performed much better than anybody projected, as the transfer portal additions are really working out on that side of the ball.

Conversely, the offense has not lived up to the lofty preseason expectations set for former five-star quarterback Preston Stone.

However, that should change on Saturday against a Charlotte secondary that can be attacked relentlessly with no fear of repercussions. The 49ers rank in the bottom 20 nationally in Pass Success Rate and dead last in Defensive Back Havoc. That's not an ideal combination.

After last week's loss, I'm sure this offense desperately wants to put up a big number against a bad defense — just as it did in a nice 69-0 win over Prairie View A&M after its loss to Oklahoma.

Meanwhile, this is a tough spot for Charlotte, playing its second straight road game after getting beat up a bit by an SEC opponent in Gainesville.

It's also hard to imagine the 49ers offense, which ranks dead last in third-down conversions and is still juggling quarterbacks, sustaining many drives against a vastly improved SMU defense.

For what it's worth, since 2011, SMU has gone 8-1 against the spread as a home favorite of at least two touchdowns against nonconference opponents, covering by over a touchdown per game. Only Duke (11-1-1 ATS) has turned a bigger profit in that role over that span.

As long as SMU gets off the bus and cares about this game, it should roll in a rout.

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