College Football-NFL Best Bets: 3 Picks for Liberty vs. FIU, Chargers vs. Vikings, More
Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Liberty’s Kaidon Salter.
This crossover card is trending in the right direction, moving from a 1-1-1 start to a 2-1 mark in Week 2. It’s time for the clean sweep here in Week 3. We’ll start in Miami for an under-the-radar Group of Five matchup, head to the North Star State for a potential shootout and round things out in America’s Dairyland in a game only an under-bettor could love.
Liberty vs. Florida International
FIU was lost in the college football wilderness during COVID. The Butch Davis era ended with a 1-16 slide into obscurity. There were also many articles advocating for the administration to shut down the program, but a few things changed in December 2021. The university hired Scott Carr as its new athletic director and Carr wasted no time hiring turnaround specialist Mike MacIntyre.
MacIntyre has earned a reputation as a miracle worker in the coaching ranks. He revitalized San Jose State and won 11 games in his final season in the Bay Area. He then pulled off the same trick in Boulder, leading Colorado to a Pac-12 South Division title and 10 wins. After that season, he was named National Coach of the Year by seemingly every outlet, including the Associated Press. In his first year at FIU, MacIntyre helped the Panthers improve by three wins. Then, he used that success to flip a crucial recruit from Auburn to FIU.
The big get on the recruiting trail was Keyone Jenkins, who is a bit of a high school legend in Miami. Jenkins won three straight state titles as Miami Central's starting quarterback and took home the Miami-Dade County Offensive Player of the Year Award last fall. The crafty lefty wasted no time overtaking entrenched starter Grayson James and has led FIU to three straight one-possession wins. He instantly developed chemistry with Kris Mitchell out wide. Mitchell, since Jenkins took over, has reeled in 18 receptions for 368 yards and four scores.
Liberty is flying high off of its 55-point explosion against Buffalo. The Flames have knocked off three straight bowl teams from last season, but are getting a bit too much credit in this spot. FIU can run the ball (5.1 ypa, 30th) and Liberty can’t stop the run at all (123rd in PPA on the ground). Additionally, FIU’s defense is serviceable against the pass, something that can’t be said for Liberty’s first three opponents.
The final component to this play is MacIntyre’s work as a home dog. As a Group of Five head coach, he’s 10-4 ATS when catching points at home. I like the Panthers to hang around and give Liberty a four-quarter battle.
Chargers vs. Vikings
This is the highest total of the NFL season and with good reason. The Chargers rank last in the NFL in total defense and are surrendering an astonishingly bad 6.9 yards per play. Minnesota’s defense is slightly better across the board, but will be facing a perfectly balanced attack led by an elite quarterback.
The Chargers have the tall task of slowing down Justin Jefferson, who just became the first player since 2011 to start a season with back-to-back 150+ yard receiving games, according to the Action Network’s Evan Abrams. After ranking 10th in DVOA against the pass in 2022, the Chargers were shredded by Tua Tagovailoa and picked apart by Ryan Tannehill in the first two games of this season. And that’s with a decent pass rush.
Despite an 0-2 start, Kirk Cousins has been well protected and efficient. He ranks sixth in the league in QBR and sports a 6:1 TD-INT ratio. And thanks to a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff, we’ll see the return of bettor-friendly Cousins after Primetime Kirk reared his ugly head last week. As a reminder, when Cousin’s games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET or earlier, he’s 48-38-2 ATS. At 4:00 p.m. ET or later, he’s just 21-34 ATS.
The key to hitting this over will be getting a hot start from the Chargers as Los Angeles plays at a brisk pace offensively (sixth in play per game). If Minnesota is forced to speed up its tempo while playing from behind, it’s likely we’ll see close to 140 plays in this game (league average is around 127). The Vikings finished with the eighth-best points per game average at home last season (2.7 ppg better than their road average) and Cousins led an astounding five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime at home last season. So, game flow that includes the Vikings playing from behind is ideal in this spot.
If it’s the Chargers playing from behind, all is not lost. Los Angeles’ offense has been clicking in the second half of games through two weeks. More than half of the Chargers plays (54%) in the final 30 minutes (and in overtime) have been successful, making them the second-most efficient second-half offense in the NFL. With a DVOA of third offensively and 32nd defensively, the Chargers can help this over bet from both sides.
Saints vs. Packers
From an over, to an under featuring two borderline top-10 defenses. The Saints have been one of the biggest defensive surprises this season and are fourth in defensive DVOA. Their unit is buoyed by a great pass rush (7th), a ball-hawking secondary (4th in INT rate) and elite red zone defense that’s second in touchdown percentage (16.7%). I’m actually encouraged by their pedestrian pressure rate (15.2%. 28th) because they’re not reliant on a dominant pass rush to shut down opposing passing attacks. If their defensive line starts to improve, this could be the second-best defense in the NFC behind Dallas.
On the Green Bay side of things, the Packers have fielded a top-10 red zone defense of their own and get off the field on third downs at the third-highest clip in the league. Those two elements, mixed with their disruptive secondary, explain why this total is tied for third-lowest on the board this week. The question for Sunday is if their vulnerable run defense can hold up.
The Saints are down to a rookie (Kendre Miller) and former UDFA (Tony Jones Jr.) at running back due to Jamaal Williams’ lingering hamstring injury. The presence of Taysom Hill mitigates the absence of Williams and Alvin Kamara, but can the mix of Miller, Jones Jr. and Hill gouge the Packers the way the Falcons did last week? I don’t believe so.
Green Bay, on the other hand, could really use Aaron Jones in this game as they’re one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL (sixth in run percentage). New Orleans is far less stout against the run than the pass and checks in at 28th in the league in yards per carry allowed (5.0). The Packers would also like to take the air out of the ball late and shorten this game. This is one of the largest plays per game disparities on the Sunday slate with the Saints checking in at 69 offensive snaps per game (t-7th) while Green Bay is at 53.5 (30th).
I’ll bank on this one turning into a rock fight and would play this game down to 41.
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