College Football Odds & Pick: Oklahoma State vs. TCU Sharp Bettors Hit Saturday’s Spread

College Football Odds & Pick: Oklahoma State vs. TCU Sharp Bettors Hit Saturday’s Spread article feature image
Credit:

Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Oklahoma State quarterback Shane Illingworth.

  • Oklahoma State battles TCU in a Big 12 matchup on Saturday, and there's plenty of value on the game.
  • Sharp bettors have taken notice, finding value on the spread.
  • Danny Donahue breaks down what that means in this game below.

College Football Odds: Oklahoma State vs. TCU

Oklahoma State Odds -2.5
TCU Odds +2.5
Over/Under 50.5
PRO Projection OKST -5.3 | 52.4
Time Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
TV ESPN2
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Most college football bettors probably aren’t thinking about the Saturday slate until, well, Saturday. Sharps aren’t most college football bettors, though.

In fact, as of just Tuesday morning the pros have already caused a line change on a Big 12 matchup, and our model’s projection agrees with their take.

Our PRO Report feature makes that take clear.

Note: Data as of 12 p.m. ET Tuesday.

There’s more early CFB sharp action this week…

Boise State vs. UNLV

Texas vs. Kansas State

Texas A&M vs. Auburn

College Football Sharp Pick: Oklahoma State vs. TCU

With big bets from sharps behind them, the Cowboys of Oklahoma State are up from -1.5 to -2.5 at TCU, and our significantly higher projected spread suggests there’s still value to be had on the road favorite.

Sharp Action

Line moves can come for a variety of reasons, and they’re not always made clear. Luckily, this one triggered a Sports Insights Bet Signal, so that’s not an issue here.

An SI Bet Signal is triggered whenever a market move specifically reflects sharp action, and in this case came in the form of a steam move on the Cowboys at -1.5.

Steam refers to a sudden, market-wide line change that comes as a result of a heavy dose of money hitting the same side of a bet at once, and is one of the clearest indicators of professional action.

Sharp Action edge: Oklahoma State

Big Money

Also pointing to an early sharp backing of Oklahoma State: its 60% backing has generated almost all of the actual money hitting the spread thus far.

That means the Cowboys are landing much, much bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by sharps.

Big Money edge: Oklahoma State

Model Projection

For the pros to be so attracted to the favorite, they must believe this line is a bit short … and we do, too. Our college football projections, compiled by Collin Wilson, set this true spread at Oklahoma State -5.3.

And given that that’s on the other side of a very important number in -3, the difference is significant enough to earn a B+ rating by our model.

Model Projection edge: Oklahoma State

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