Nevada vs. Hawaii College Football Odds & Picks: How to Bet Saturday’s Over/Under
Darryl Oumi/Getty Images. Pictured: Jason-Matthew Sharsh.
- Carson Strong and the Nevada Wolf Pack will head to the Island on Saturday night to battle Chevan Cordeiro and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
- Strong has been solid at times this season, but can the Nevada defense keep up with the new-look Hawaii offense.
- Patrick Strollo breaks down the game and shares a betting pick below.
Nevada vs. Hawaii Odds
|Nevada Odds||-7.5 [BET NOW]|
|Hawaii Odds||+7.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-245 / +195 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||60.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 11 p.m. ET|
The undefeated Nevada Wolf Pack (5-0) make the long journey to Oahu to face the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-3) on Saturday night. The Wolf Pack look to improve to 6-0 for the sixth time in program history while simultaneously avenging last season’s homecoming beatdown loss to Hawaii, 54-3.
This will be the 25th meeting between the two programs with Nevada leading the series, 14-10. This game marks the 100-year anniversary of the matchup, which Nevada won on Christmas Day in 1920.
Nevada is 4-1 against the spread this season and has hit the over once. Hawaii is 2-3 against the spread this season and has hit the over twice.
Wolf Pack sophomore quarterback Carson Strong has continued his impressive campaign this season, amassing 1,805 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. Last week, Strong threw for 288 yards, which was his first game under 300 yards in seven times out. Strong will look to get back into the 300-club Saturday as the Wolf Pack vie to stay undefeated.
This is the first time that Hawaii has been on the island for two consecutive weeks this season. Remaining on island time for two weeks should be a boon for the Warriors as they prepare for the Mountain West leaders. They look to pick up a win on the back of dual-threat redshirt sophomore quarterback Chevan Cordeiro.
Both teams have defenses that are capable of making big stops. Will this game be tight down the stretch? Let’s break down the matchup and see where the value lies.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada comes into this game ranked 19th in FBS total offense, averaging 481.5 yards per game. The vast majority of this offensive production comes from Strong, who ranks 19th in FBS passing efficiency. He is averaging 361 yards passing per game.
The Wolf Pack have an Offensive Predicted Points Added (PPA) of 0.27 per play, well above the Mountain West average of 0.17. Nevada allows front seven Havoc on 12.7% of its plays and allows total Havoc on 17.6% of plays.
Both rates are in line with conference averages and speak to Nevada’s ability to reasonably protect the ball when on offense. The Wolf Pack have scored 18 offensive touchdowns this season, 14 of which came through the air. Strong is the lynchpin of their offense and the key to success going forward.
The defense was dominant last week against San Diego State, led by a standout performance from junior defensive tackle Dom Peterson. The Wolf Pack rank 17th in total defense among FBS teams, allowing just 317.8 yards per game and 20.6 points per game. They have been scored on 11 times this season — five times on the ground and six through the air.
Nevada has a defensive PPA per play of 0.07, which is second-best in the Mountain West and well below the 0.18 conference average. It also generates Havoc at a 14.2% clip. The Wolf Pack will need to control the line of scrimmage and generate more Havoc to contain the dual-threat Cordeiro.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Hawaii ranks 77th nationally in FBS total offense, averaging 390 yards per game. Cordeiro is completing 58% of his passes and has thrown for 1,211 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. He has added 264 yards and three scores on the ground.
The Warriors boast a running back committee that supplements Cordeiro’s dual-threat approach. The offense has a PPA per play of 0.15, and it allows Havoc on 18% of plays. Hawaii will look to take advantage of the Wolf Pack’s lower defensive Havoc rate as it looks to pull off the upset.
Hawaii ranks 65th in FBS total defense, allowing 414.3 yards per game. The Warriors are allowing 31.40 points per game. They have given up 18 touchdowns this season with only five of those coming through the aerial attack. The Warriors have a defensive PPA per play of 0.14, which is better than the conference average of 0.18.
They generate Havoc on 20% of plays, ranking second in the Mountain West. The strong passing defense will need to toe the line against the pass-happy Wolf Pack.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Hawaii offense will face a big test against the top-ranked Nevada defensive unit. The Wolf Pack defense will look to stifle Cordeiro’s running game. The Hawaii defense matches up well against Strong and the Nevada receiving corps given its strong passing defense.
My model has the total for this game coming in at 55 points. I think the play is to take the under for a couple of reasons. First, this is Nevada’s first game out of the Silver State this season. Getting to Hawaii is a tough journey, and it could take a quarter for Nevada to find its rhythm. The second is both defenses are good and capable of making stops.
The Pick: Under 60.5 (down to 60) | Hawaii +7 or better